Week 12 gives us a surprisingly compelling Monday Night Football matchup between NFC North tivals. The surging Vikings are currently the number six seed in the NFC, and picking up another win before their bye week and the return of Justin Jefferson would be huge.
They're favored by just three against the Bears, as Chicago looked much better last week with the return of Justin Fields. The pregame total is set at 43.5, but that could drastically shift based on the play of both quarterbacks. Let's see if we can time it right with some live bets.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 12
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | +138 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | -164 |
Bears at Vikings: Over With a Bears Lead
To be blunt, this is a pretty awful game for live betting. No game scenario leads to a pace that differs by more than a second from league average, and the Vikings are an equally strong defense against both the pass and the run.
The lone exception is when Minnesota has the ball. They've been woefully inefficient in the running game, ranking 28th in DVOA. Even without Jefferson and Kirk Cousins, the passing attack has been much better — it ranks 12th in DVOA. That conveniently lines up nicely with the Bears defense, which ranks 11th against the run and 27th against the pass.
Of course, with Chicago as slight underdogs, we're not especially likely to see this scenario. Even if they take a lead, we'd need it to be a low-ish scoring game that drags the total down before making a bet. It's also hard to trust the inverse scenario, as Minnesota might continue to throw the ball even with a lead.
Therefore, the likeliest outcome is that we pass on this game entirely, unless our extremely specific scenario comes to fruition. We're looking for the Bears to be up at least seven with the ball, or double digits without, AND the total to come down from the pregame 43.5.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and games that are faster or slower than expected create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
