After neither game on Saturday worked out in a way that enabled live betting, we have a full(ish) slate of games to choose from on Sunday that should change that. There's six games in the early window, plus three games in the late afternoon to choose from.
The combination of Christmas Eve festivities and the low quality of Sunday Night Football between the Patriots and Broncos means we'll be sitting that one out — but if you can hop in on an under at a higher number than the pregame 36, that's probably the way to go.
NFL Live Betting for Week 16 Afternoon Games
Cowboys at Dolphins: Unders With a Cowboys Lead, Overs in a Close Game
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +100 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -118 |
I have significant concerns about the Dolphins' offense here, for a few reasons. One is the Cowboys' defense, which ranks sixth in overall DVOA and fifth in points per game allowed this season. Still, Miami averaged 32 points in two games against the Jets, the only top-five defense by DVOA they've faced this season.
The bigger concern is Miami's injury situation. Tyreek Hill is expected to play but is unlikely to be at full strength. That could manifest itself in limited effectiveness or just a snap count limit, but either one would hurt the Dolphins offense. They're also set to be without starting right guard Robert Hunt, and starting right tackle Austin Jackson is a game time decision.
That type of cluster injury situation is huge, as Miami could be down the entire right side of their offensive line. That's an even bigger deal for Miami, as the right side is the blind side for lefty quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Of course, it also wouldn't be a surprise if they overcome all of the above and look like their usual explosive selves, which is why live betting this game makes more sense than a pregame pick. We'll be able to get a good look at both team's performances before being forced into a decision.
Additionally, a Cowboys lead correlates nicely with the Dolphins struggling, while a close game likely means Miami is operating normally. It also sets up nicely with the pace splits, which see this game playing fast if it's close, slow if Dallas controls it, and roughly average if Miami leads.
Ideally we also get some movement to the pregame total of 48 that aligns with the scenario, but that's not a huge factor here. If the game is 21-17 at halftime, taking an over in the mid 50s is fine, for example.
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -154 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Lions at Vikings: Overs, Probably — LIVE BET MADE, Over 54.5 (-118, FanDuel)
Lions-Vikings has been the offensive environment we predicted, with 31 first half points. It could've been even more, with 3 turnovers between the two teams and a redzone field goal. With the current total up to 54.5, we still need just 24 more second half points, which is helped by the fact that the trailing Vikings get the ball to start the second half.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
2023 has been the year of the backup quarterback, with surprisingly strong performances from Jake Browning (yesterday excluded), Josh Dobbs (twice!), Joe Flacco, Tommy Devito … and now Nick Mullens. The Vikings' third quarterback of the season threw for 300 yards passing with a 78.8% completion percent in his first start last week, and he has a strong chance to do it again against a bad Lions pass defense.
On the other hand, most of those backups had a run of success before crashing back to earth. That's also a strong possibility — if not probability — for Mullens, which is why it's nice to get a look at how he's playing before jumping in on an over bet on this game's total, which sits at 47.5 pregame.
Five of the seven games Detroit has played indoors topped 50 points this season, with the exceptions largely due to the opposing team not holding up their end of the bargain. That's arguably the biggest concern here, as well. For that reason, a dominant Lions performance is the one scenario where we'd pivot to an under bet here — particularly if they race out to an early lead and drive up the total.
If Minnesota keeps pace or gets in front, we'll be looking to jump in on the over. This game looks to play fastest with Detroit trailing — about 2.5 seconds quicker than the league average pace. It would be better if the total drops, of course, but we've got considerable wiggle room in that department.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application iswe're obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
