The last couple weeks of Thursday Night Football have proved to be far more entertaining than expected, with the Raiders coming from nowhere to score 63 points on the hapless Chargers in Week 15.
This week, we have a game that looks exciting coming in between the Saints and the Rams. Los Angeles is a four-point favorite here, as they hang on for the last playoff spot in the NFC. Both the Saints and Rams are among the five seven-win NFC teams fighting for two spots in the postseason, so there's a lot at stake in this one.
NFL Live Betting for Thursday Night Football in Week 16
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 +100 | 45 -115o / -105u | +180 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -120 | 45 -115o / -105u | -218 |
Saints at Rams: Overs With a Rams Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Over 41.5 (-104, FanDuel)
This game couldn't have started much better for the over. We've got 10 points on the board, a five point discount from the pregame line, and a Saints team that's moved the ball reasonably well on two scoreless drives. On top of that, the Rams kicking a field goal from the two also left a few potential points on the board. The best line for the over is -104 at FanDuel.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
There's not much to like from a pace standpoint when it comes to live betting Week 16 Thursday Night Football. This game projects to play on the quick side in all scenarios and roughly equally quick in each of them. Fortunately, we can look a bit deeper at how both teams match up — and when we do, a clear angle emerges.
That's because the Saints rank 24th in DVOA against the run but eighth against the pass defensively. With the Rams fairly balanced offensively, that means we should see an uptick in efficiency if the Rams can lean on their run game, as we'd expect them to do when playing from in front.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams run defense is a bit tougher than their passing defense, but they rank below-average in both areas. Broadly speaking, we expect the Saints' scoring to remain fairly consistent regardless of the game script. That means the Rams will be driving most of the variance in scoring, at least in theory.
We'll be fairly strict in requiring a dip from the pregame total of 46 along with the appropriate scenario here — as opposed to games when both the pace and the matchup give us an edge. In any scenario where the total rises significantly other than a big Rams lead, we're also interested in taking the under. As always, we'll also be looking for fluky scenarios that inflate or suppress the scoring, like redzone turnovers, return touchdowns, or missed field goals.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
