Three more games are on the NFL schedule tonight. We'll see some big-name quarterbacks in action tonight, and the No. 8 overall pick in this year's draft will also be very active.
Here's how I'm looking to bet the games tonight, with my full QB previews and NFL picks.
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Texans vs Steelers: Wait Until the Starters Exit
The Texans are expected to play C.J. Stroud and the starters for 2-3 series. It’s a situation where I think if the Texans score a TD on the opening drive, they may pull the starters then and end it on a good night. If they are a bit sluggish on the opening drive, the first team would see 1-2 more drives.
The Steelers could have a similar approach as they will start Justin Fields and the rest of the first-string offense.
As a result, I think we could see a fairly high scoring first-quarter before the Texans turn it over to Davis Mills/Case Keenum/Tim Boyle and the Steelers turn it over to Kyle Allen/John Rhys Plumlee. The Texans could opt to give Boyle extended playing time tonight since he checked into the Hall of Fame Game game shortly before it was rained out.
I’m in line with all of the pre-game markets, but I'll be looking to see how the market adjusts the in-game total shortly before I expect Stroud and Fields to be done for the night. If it looks like it’s offering value on what should be a much lower-scoring game from the second quarter on, I will come in on the under.
As always, be sure to join our Action Discord as that’s where I’m discussing what I’m looking for/timing for my official plays that I will post in the Action App.
Pick: I'll be looking to bet in-game under once I expect Stroud and Fields to be pulled from the game.
Falcons vs Dolphins: Second Half Could Provide Value
We'll likely get our first look at Michael Penix Jr. for most of the first half tonight. I expect the Dolphins to start Mike White and have him play most of the first half.
Neither team will likely play their starters so this should be a fairly even first half, but I would give the slight edge to the Falcons here.
I expect the Dolphins to give Skylar Thompson the second half as he is in a “neck and neck” competition with White for the backup job. Thompson has been excellent in preseason and has a 69% completion rate, 7.7 yards-per-attempt rate and a QB rating of 100.1 on 127 dropbacks. He is also willing to scramble, which is an added advantage when it comes to preseason.
The Falcons will likely split the second half between Taylor Heinicke and Nathan Rourke. Heinicke has also been fairly solid in preseason, but Atlanta knows what it has with himso I don’t expect him to get a ton of run.
Rourke was incredible for the Jaguars in the preseason last year, and I easily hit on his passing yards total in his first action last year, so I’m aware of his upside. However, he was signed by the Falcons a few days ago and may not have a ton of chemistry with his pass catchers or familiarity with the playbook quite yet.
I’ll be looking to see if I can get the Dolphins at +0.5 for the second half because I think that’s where it will be a very even matchup and having any exposure to winning the bet even if there is a 2H tie could be offering enough value for me to bet.
Pick: I'll be looking to bet the Dolphins +0.5 or higher in the second half.
Eagles vs Ravens: The First-Half Spread Play
The Eagles are expected to play Jalen Hurts and their starters for a series, according to beat reporter Jeff McLane. He speculates that they could play more depending on how the opening series goes. I typically translate that as “if it’s not a clean scoring drive, they may get another series.” So, I think the Eagles are a team that could get off to a fast start here.
Then, we'll likely see Kenny Pickett play for the remainder of the first half. Pickett has been sharp in preseason with an 82% completion rate, a 9.0 yards-per-attempt rate and 133.7 QB rating. I chalk up a lot of his struggles in Pittsburgh on former offensive coordinator Matt Canada. He'll be looking to prove himself on his new team and as Hurts' new backup.
The Ravens are expected to rest their starters with Josh Johnson expected to start under center. It’s unclear how long he will play, but I’m guessing they let him play for 1-1 1/2 quarters before splitting the rest of the game up between Devin Leary and Emory Jones.
I realize everyone loves betting on the Ravens due to their preseason dominance over the years. However, they did recently snap their 24-game winning streak, which gives John Harbaugh a bit less incentive to keep that particular streak alive.
My entire approach to handicap the preseason is based off of the players expected to play in the game and who/where/when the edge will be and much less based on trends. Therefore, I think Eagles 1H -2.5 is the play here.
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