NFL Picks, Week 17 Predictions
I'm on two NFL picks for each slate of games on Sunday afternoon. My Week 17 predictions are on three spreads and one total.
To navigate my NFL Week 17 picks, click on a bet below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rams vs. Giants
Matthew Stafford has thrown 14 touchdowns and no interceptions over the past five games with Rams games combining for point totals of 51, 55, 68, 48, and 52 over that span. He should have no problem carving up a Giants defense that ranks 20th in DVOA against the pass and features three cornerbacks all ranked 90th or worse in Pro Football Focus' cornerback grades (Adoree’ Jackson 113th, Deonte Banks 109th and Cordale Flott 90th). The Giants blitz at the third-highest rate (35.6%, per FTN), but Stafford’s 80.2 PFF grade against the blitz ranks sixth highest among 40 qualified passers.
Meanwhile, the Giants get an upgrade on offense with Tyrod Taylor starting in place of Tommy DeVito. Taylor is averaging 5.9 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt with an 8.5% sack rate compared to 4.3 and 17.0% for DeVito and should be able to move the ball on a Rams pass defense that ranks 21st in DVOA.
Bet to: 45
Pick: Over 43.5 (-110)
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Raiders vs. Colts
Since Antonio Pierce took over in Week 9, the Raiders defense ranks second in Expected Points Added per Play excluding turnovers (-0.038), including the league’s No. 1 mark against the run (-0.256). That will be key in slowing down Colts offensive centerpiece Jonathan Taylor, who's averaging a career-low 3.9 yards per carry and has failed to top 3.0 yards per carry in five of eight games this season.
The Colts have been overachieving with an 8-7 record despite a -18 point differential. According to FTN’s Weighted DVOA, which weighs recent games more heavily, the Raiders are clearly the superior team, clocking in at 15th while the Colts are 22nd.
The market also tends to overrate the effects of West Coast teams traveling east, especially in close matchups. Per our Action Labs data, West Coast road teams are 49-26-2 (65%) with an average cover margin of +3.9 in interconference games in the Eastern time zone with a spread below six points since 2011.
Pick: Raiders +4 (-110)
Steelers vs. Seahawks
For all of the flak the Steelers have caught this year, the Seahawks have been equally unimpressive. The Steelers (11th) rank three spots higher than the Seahawks (14th) in overall DVOA, and that increases to six spots when you look at Weighted DVOA, which weighs recent games more heavily.
Despite starting the year as third on the depth chart, Mason Rudolph is the Steelers best quarterback with a career Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 5.5 that trumps that of Kenny Pickett (5.0) and Mitch Trubisky since both joined the Steelers (4.9). In his first start last week, Rudolph led the Steelers to 34 points and 397 yards against a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in DVOA, and he now faces a Seahawks defense that ranks only two spots higher.
The Seahawks have been held below 300 yards of total offense in half of Geno Smith’s last six starts and five of their last eight games overall, two more than the Steelers despite Pickett and Trubisky starting all but one game over that span. The Steelers are seventh in defensive DVOA and are 4-1 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (out, knee). They should be able to get stops against a Seattle offense that ranks 26th in third-down conversion rate (35.5%) and 29th in red-zone conversion rate (47.9%).
According to our Action Labs data, the Seahawks are 20-31-1 (39%) ATS when favored coming off of a win under Pete Carroll. Meanwhile, the Steelers are 56-31-3 (64%) ATS as a dog under Mike Tomlin, including 39-16-1 (71%) ATS as a dog against an opponent with an equal or better record, covering by 4.2 points per game.
Bet to: +3
Pick: Steelers +4.5 (-105)
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Chargers vs. Broncos
The Chargers are missing starting quarterback Justin Herbert (finger) and top wide receiver Keenan Allen (heel) while the Broncos are missing starting quarterback Russell Wilson (contract) and top wide receiver Courtland Sutton (concussion). The difference is the Chargers already bottomed out a couple of weeks ago in a 63-21 loss to the Raiders that led to the firing of Brandon Staley, and now look rejuvenated under interim coach Giff Smith. Meanwhile, the Broncos are still in freefall after a 29-26 loss to the Patriots knocked their playoff odds down to 1%, led to the benching of Wilson, and created a media firestorm.
The Chargers are the superior team over the full season (19th in overall DVOA versus 24th for Denver) and given all the injuries on both sides, I still rate the Chargers as the slightly better team, and there could be some unrealized upside/addition by subtraction with Staley gone.
The market tends to underrate teams coming off huge losses in the recent past, such as the Chargers’ 42-point drubbing by the Raiders two weeks ago. Per our Action Labs data, road dogs with an average point differential of -18.0 or more over their past three games are 61-31-1 (66%) ATS since 2004, covering by 3.5 points per game.
Bet to: +3
Pick: Chargers +3.5 (-105)
