NFL Player Props for Rams vs Lions
Below you'll find my top two NFL player props for Rams vs. Lions on Sunday of Wild Card Weekend featuring a pair of bets on Detroit players, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Rams vs Lions | 8:00 p.m. ET, NBC
With his third NFL regular season now behind him, St. Brown solidified himself as one of the NFL’s elite wide receivers. He finished the year with 1,515 receiving yards, good for the third-most in the league.
He cleared this line in 11 of his 16 games, including seven of eight at home. And the matchup against the Rams today represents another ceiling type matchup for the USC product to rack up the yards.
Per Pro Football Focus, the Rams employ a zone coverage scheme at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. St. Brown flourished against zone, with 2.91 yards per route run – the third-highest mark in the NFL amongst qualified receivers (also per PFF).
From a game-flow perspective, the expectation is that this one will stay close. However, St. Brown has managed to produce in games with varying game scripts throughout the season. In fact, he cleared this line in three of the four games when the Lions won by at least two touchdowns.
The Sun God should continue to be the focal point of the Lions passing game today. And with no discernible individual or team matchup to slow him down on the Rams side, I have St. Brown clearing triple-digit receiving yards today.
Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Reception Under 11.5 Yards (-114)
Rams vs Lions | 8:00 p.m. ET, NBC
The Lions rookie running back put together a dynamic first season by recording more than 1,250 scrimmage yards. Although, only 316 of those yards came through the air, which was somewhat surprising given the potential he showed in the passing game coming out of Alabama.
Gibbs stayed under this line in 10 of his 16 games this season, including six of his last seven.
The Rams have been proficient in limiting running backs through the air this season. Not only did Los Angeles rank eighth in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric against the position group, but they also held running backs to the second-fewest yards per catch this season (4.9).
Excluding Week 18 (when their starters were resting), the Rams held opposing backs under this line in 12 of 16 games. I expect Gibbs to follow suit with that trend tonight, as I have his longest reception projected at eight yards.
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