Roschon Johnson
Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)
Snaps are trending in the right direction for the rookie running back out of Texas.
With D’Onta Foreman a healthy scratch in back-to-back games, the Bears backfield has become more of a 50-50 split between Johnson and Khalil Herbert.
Johnson saw a bit more early down usage instead of passing-down work last week, which is ideal for this market.
The Bears haven’t been able to run the ball much this year as they’ve lost all of their games by at least 10 points. Despite being 3-point underdogs to the Broncos, this could be the best game script they’ve had to date in terms of being able to run the ball.
The Broncos just allowed 441 yards to Miami’s running backs and will now be without LB Josey Jewell, who is one of their best run defenders.
I’m projecting Johnson’s median closer to 38.5 rushing yards and I think his expected volume and efficiency gives us a fairly high floor.
Dalton Kincaid
Over 2.5 Receptions (-120, BetMGM)
Kincaid has been fairly even with Dawson Knox in terms of routes run in every week thus far. You have to imagine the talented rookie will only see his role grow going forward.
He’s been held back by the Bills blowing out their last two opponents. We should see a closer game script against the Dolphins, whose potent offense could even put the Bills in a trailing game script.
Kincaid has an aDot of just 3.5, which means he has been seeing high-percentage looks from Josh Allen and likely only needs 3-4 targets to clear this number.
I’m projecting Kincaid closer to 3.2 receptions and a fair price of -160 for the over.
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Jaylen Waddle
Under 4.5 Receptions (-106, FanDuel)
Waddle, who hasn’t played since Week 2, is set to return from his concussion.
Last week, we saw the De’Von Achane breakout game, and I think he could step up as a legit third target for Miami. As a result, there is a chance that Waddle’s target share takes a slight hit with Achane expected to see more playing time.
Waddle continues to see most of his targets down field as he has an aDot of 13.0 on the season. His catch rate should continue to be in the 65% range and he will do a ton of damage when he does get a reception, but this is the market to potentially fade him in what will be a tougher matchup.
I’m projecting Waddle closer to 4.2 receptions and a 60% chance of staying under.
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Terry McLaurin
Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
McLaurin's routes run rate continues to hover around the 80% range this season. While his target rate finally cleared 20% for the first time this season in Week 3 (at 20%), most of his targets were on underneath routes and he only saw an Average Depth of Target (aDot) of seven yards.
McLaurin has an 81% catch rate this season, which is unsustainable with an aDot of 9.4 yards and Sam Howell as his quarterback. I expect closer to a 67% catch rate moving forward.
Howell is likely going to face a ton of pressure against an Eagles defense that ranks second in pressure rate. McLaurin leads the Commanders with a 20% target rate when Howell has a clean pocket, but it plummets to 8% when he's under pressure.
Jahan Dotson and Antonio Gibson are likely to see their target shares increase moving forward, along with TE Logan Thomas. McLaurin is still Washington's top target in the passing game, but Howell is likely to spread the ball around much more than the team has in previous seasons. Plus, he's due for regression in his catch rate and will continue to run shorter routes, it appears.
I'm projecting McLaurin's median closer to 44.5 receiving yards.
Chris Moore
Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Moore has had a limited role as the Titans' No. 4 wide receiver so far this season, mainly being used as a situational deep threat. However, with Treylon Burks ruled out, he'll likely see his routes run rate jump into the 75% range.
Moore's 3.46 yards per route run ranks fourth among wide receivers this season, and he could thrive in an increased role. I expected his route tree to be a a little more diverse in this game instead of just being a deep threat.
Moore could clear this prop with just a couple catches, and I think he offers a high enough floor to get there. I'm projecting his median closer to 27.5 receiving yards.
Nelson Agholor
Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Agholor averaged a 31% routes run rate in the first two games of the season, but it jumped to 87% with Odell Beckham Jr. out of the lineup in Week 3. Beckham is out again this week.
Agholor posted a four-reception, 39-yard game despite only being targeted on 12% of routes. With Rashod Bateman also out, he should be the Ravens' No. 3 receiving option this week behind Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews.
This is a tough matchup against a stellar Browns defense, but Baltimore could be forced to throw more as a result. Agholor has good chemistry with Lamar Jackson, and I think the QB continues going toward the veteran in this game.
I'm projecting Agholor's median closer to 33.5.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Stevenson has struggled on the ground this season. Out of 52 qualified backs, here is where he ranks in key metrics:
- Avoided tackle rate (39th)
- Explosive run rate (43rd)
- Yards after contact per rush (48th)
Ezekiel Elliott has been more efficient, and has seen an increase in rushing work as a result.
That trend might continue this week and don't forget this is a revenge game for Zeke, who will be playing at Jerry World in an opposing uniform for the first time.
The Cowboys run defense ranks 20th in DVOA, but that's a bit misleading considering they have coughed up a ton of yards to non-RBs in Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Joshua Dobbs and Rondale Moore. The only running back who has had success against Dallas is James Conner, while Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook have struggled.
It’s also a game script where the Patriots will likely be trailing and forced to throw more.
I'm projecting Stevenson's median closer to 49.5 and I think he has a lower floor than usual.
Drake London
Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)
Atlanta's passing attack is frustrating because it has a handful of above-average players like London, but not enough volume to keep everyone happy. The byproduct of an extreme run-heavy offense and a below-average quarterback — Desmond Ridder has a -6.1 completion percentage over expected, which is third worst among qualified QBs.
Last week, I mentioned how Bijan Robinson's presence has made it tougher for London — who's only seen a target on 16% of his routes — to draw looks. Now Jonnu Smith has emerged as someone who commands targets. We may also see Cordarrelle Patterson make his season debut, which could further complicate things.
London will likely face Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams for most of his routes, making this a tougher draw.
I'm projecting his median closer to 39.5 receiving yards.
