NFL Predictions Week 16: Data-Driven Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Seahawks vs. Titans
By Nick Giffen
Geno Smith is expected to return and face a Titans defense that has quietly gotten better in the passing game, especially in recent weeks.
The Titans have had three straight weeks of holding opposing offenses to a negative DVOA in the passing game, forcing eight turnover-worthy plays by QBs in those games.
Tennessee has been incredibly unlucky to have only four interceptions this year despite forcing 44 bad balls, coming in 4.5 interceptions under expectation.
Meanwhile, Smith has the fourth-worst turnover-worthy play rate among qualified QBs at 4.0%, and he has been a bit lucky in the interception department with just nine picks on 52 bad balls compared to 10 expected.
I’m projecting a 53% chance of Smith throwing an interception so getting significant plus odds is solid value.
Pick: Geno Smith Over 0.5 Interceptions (+120)
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Lions vs. Vikings
By Billy Ward
I don’t bet a ton of sides or totals, but this one is too good to pass up. After opening at 46 it’s already steamed up to 47.5, but there’s still plenty of margin for error here.
That’s because five of the Lions’ seven dome games this season have topped 50 points, with the only exceptions coming from non-participation from the lowly Raiders and Falcons offenses. Detroit still did its part in those games, scoring 46 between the two contests.
The Vikings, even with Nick Mullens under center, should do far better than that against a bad Lions pass defense. Mullens and the Vikings put up 24 points last week in a roughly similar matchup, except that game was outside with tougher weather.
It was also the first game that Mullens and Justin Jefferson played together, with very limited practice time coming in. That connection should be considerably stronger on Sunday as Jefferson’s chest injury becomes less of an issue as time passes.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have a solid defense but are unlikely to do much to slow down the Lions. Detroit averages over 27 points per game despite scoring just 19 combined in its last two outdoor games.
I’d bet this one up another full point to 48.5.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-108)
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Jaguars vs. Buccaneers
By Billy Ward
We haven’t had many opportunities to bet this prop in recent weeks, as scoring — and thus, totals — have picked back up around the league. We have just one on Sunday, but it’s a reasonably strong edge.
That’s due to the spread, which is either 1 or 1.5 points depending on the sportsbook. Historically, games with a spread in either of those ranges produced fair odds for this prop of right around +130.
Which wouldn’t be enough by itself, of course. However, we still have a reasonably low total of 43, well below the average of all games with such a tight spread.
Both spread and total considered, I’d make the true odds of this prop around +115, providing a solid edge in Jags vs. Bucs.
Pick: Either Team to Record 3 Unanswered Scores — No (+135)
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Patriots vs. Broncos
By Nick Giffen
This spread is too wide given the underlying statistics for each team.
Pythagorean win percentage, which uses a schedule-adjusted version of our Action Network Expected Scores, has the Broncos as a 40% win team and the Patriots as a 36% win team.
This game is about as close to a Luck Matchup as possible without actually being one — with a Luck Differential of 23 and a Luck Gap of 23.6% — especially with the Patriots as the road team where some extra signals are triggered.
Additionally, road underdogs in games with a total below 38 are 60% ATS since 2009.
I also don’t love the matchup for Russell Wilson, who has converted to a low-aDOT passer this year with a career-low 7.0 intended air yards per attempt. The Patriots' strength is their run defense, and if they’re able to put Wilson into third-and-long situations, it’s going to force him to throw deeper than he has been this year.
I’ll take the unlucky road team in a low total game catching more than seven points at some books.
Pick: Patriots +7.5 (to +7)
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