Every week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and bets for every Sunday slate in my NFL predictions.
For reference, my season-long sides record in this file sits at 18-12 (60%) for +4.75 units. For my best expert picks against the spread in Week 10, I'm rolling with a pair of road dogs in non-conference matchups in the early slate then going with a divisional home favorite later in the afternoon.
This is an awful situational spot for the Bengals, who are coming off an enormous win over Buffalo with a matchup against the division-leading Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night looming. Can you say sandwich spot?
There's no doubt Joe Burrow is back. Over the first six weeks, he finished just two cumulative yards above replacement adjusted for opponent. Over the past two weeks following the bye, that number has jumped to a whopping 357 yards in two Cincinnati victories. That said, Tee Higgins has already been ruled out and Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a back injury. I expect Chase to give it a go, but he certainly won't be 100%.
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For Houston, C.J. Stroud is the real deal. He's on pace for one of the best rookie-QB seasons ever. Fortunately for Houston, based on their recent comments and the game plan last week, head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik finally realized they just needed to hand Stroud the keys to the offense after trying to continuously establish the run without success in a bad loss in Carolina.
Stroud, Tank Dell and company should have no problems moving the ball against an overrated Cincinnati defense that has simply benefited from extremely good fortune in terms of turnovers and opponent red zone failures to date. Just take a look at the past three weeks.
Seattle had 384 total yards but went 0-for-2 on fourth down and scored only one touchdown in four red-zone trips (two of which came up completely empty) three weeks ago against Cincinnati. The following week, San Francisco had 460 total yards but lost the turnover battle 4-2 and failed to score any points on three trips inside the Bengals' 30-yard-line. Then last week, Buffalo even lost a fumble in the red zone, losing the turnover battle 2-0.
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To put the season-long numbers into context, the Bengals' defense ranks in the middle of the pack in EPA per play at 15th. However, if you remove turnovers, they drop to 25th overall and 23rd against the pass. Additionally, they rank in the bottom three in the league in overall and Passing Success Rate allowed.
The Houston offense, which remains undervalued in my eyes, ranks in the top 10 in EPA per play and DVOA and is led by a dynamic passing attack that can beat Cincinnati. The ground game remains inefficient, but the Texans may even break a few runs against this leaky Cincinnati run defense.
Plus, as I mentioned previously, I expect Houston to come out throwing on early downs, when they rank sixth in EPA. Even if the Texans get down, they should have no issues keeping up against a Bengals team that tends to get a bit too conservative with a lead under Zac Taylor.
Give me the Texans against a banged-up Bengals bunch in a tough situational spot with the regression monster looming on the defensive end.
Trending: Zac Taylor is just 2-5 ATS (28.6%) as a favorite of seven or more points.
This is a pretty simple handicap for me, as I just don't think the Steelers should be favored by more than a field goal over any team in the league not named the Giants with Tommy DeVito.
Believe it or not, I actually have the Packers rated higher in my most recent power ratings, albeit by an immaterial margin. Still, after accounting for home-field advantage, I don't get to a field goal.
Yes, the Steelers are 5-3 on the season, but they have gone 5-0 in one-possession games and have performed more like a 2-6 team. They have a minus-30 scoring margin and have been out-gained in every single game by a total of 790 yards; only the Broncos have a worse net yardage margin.
In fact, the Steelers are one of only 34 teams over the past 100 seasons to have fewer yards than its opponent in each of its first eight games. They are the only ones to have a winning record.
As you might expect, they rank No. 1 in our Luck Rankings by a wide margin. In fact, Pittsburgh is the luckiest team ever through nine weeks since the origin of those rankings. Oddly enough, the Steelers also sat at No. 1 at this point in the season in both 2020 and 2021. One might say it's simply a Mike Tomlin thing, but after starting a combined 13-3 in those two seasons, they finished just 8-8-1.
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Conversely, the Packers sit on the other end of the spectrum in our Luck Rankings at 30th due to a 1-3 record in one-score games, including three losses by a combined seven points.
Jordan Love has not had a great season by any stretch, but he's also had to deal with plenty of injuries to his supporting cast. With a now healthier offensive line and a 100% Aaron Jones, who is the engine of this offense, Green Bay can find success against a mediocre Pittsburgh defense that won't have the services of star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick on the back end.
Through nine games, the Packers' biggest problem has been slow starts. They average a league-low 4.5 points in the first half. If Matt LaFleur still hasn't figured out an effective script, that might not bury Green Bay this week against a Steelers team that has had similar struggles over the first 30 minutes, as one of only five teams to average less than a touchdown.
Comparing the quarterbacks in this matchup, Kenny Pickett ranks 32nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite, besting only Zach Wilson, while Love sits at 23rd. Plus, for what it's worth, Green Bay has one of the heaviest zone defenses in the league, which is important because the Steelers rank fourth in Adjusted Yards per Attempt against man coverage but fall all the way to 24th against zone.
Trending: Underdog King Mike Tomlin has gone just 55-71-1 ATS (43.7%) when favored by more than a field goal. Since 2003, only Mike Shanahan has been less profitable in that role among 132 coaches. That includes an ATS mark of just 35-47-1 (42.7%) against opponents at .500 or below.
I never lay over two touchdowns in the NFL, but I project this game right around -19.5.
We don't have many data points on Tommy DeVito, but his last two games are horrid. The Giants finished with negative passing yards against the Jets then lost 30-6 to a Raiders team that has a bottom-five defense (and was playing with a backup quarterback).
I'm still in shock that DeVito, who couldn't even keep his starting job at Syracuse, is in line to make another Sunday start in the NFL. Per my power ratings, he's the second-lowest-rated quarterback, with the only one worse being wide receiver Kendall Hinton having to make an emergency start for the Broncos due to COVID in 2020.
A few weeks ago, I happily bet the Giants catching over two touchdowns at Buffalo. However, that was with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback against a defense that has graded out as a bottom-five unit since suffering a number of key injuries. This is a completely different story.
The Cowboys offense is also absolutely rolling since making a few critical changes out of the bye. Dallas is throwing more on early downs, while Prescott is finally using his legs. Additionally, the elite offensive line is finally at full health. We saw it all come together in Philadelphia last week when the Cowboys put up over 400 yards of total offense.
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The Cowboys should jump out to a sizable lead in the first half since they lead the league in first-half scoring at 18.6 points per game. That will likely spell doom for DeVito against a heavy-pressure defense that can simply pin its ears back, likely leading to multiple turnovers.
That's what makes Dallas such a good favorite against inferior competition, which we've seen in four 20-plus points victories already this season, including a 38-0 domination of these same Giants back in Week 1. The defense has figured it out after the loss of cornerback Trevon Diggs with the emergence of cornerback Daron Bland and linebacker Markquese Bell, both of whom rank in the top 10 at their respective positions, per PFF.
I expect the Cowboys to come out angry after that unlucky loss against the Eagles and take out their frustration on New York's overmatched third-string quarterback.
Trending: Dak Prescott owns a sparkling 27-11 ATS (71.1%) record when favored by six or more points in his career, covering by just under five points per game on average. Over the past 20 seasons, only Tom Brady has been more profitable in that role.
