The tried and true narrative with Josh Allen is that he’s more likely to run the ball in close and/or big games. Despite rushing less frequently this season, he has hit this line in four of seven games decided by two scores or fewer in 2023.
The Bills' change at offensive coordinator might actually help him in the rushing department as well. In Joe Brady’s first game calling plays, Allen ran on three designed rushes in the first half, before the game was out of hand in the 32-6 win over the Jets.
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Whether that translates over into a new normal is yet to be seen, but today’s game versus the Eagles is massive. The Bills, currently outside of the AFC playoff picture, have very little margin for error the rest of the season.
Last week, the Eagles defense was more concerned with stopping Patrick Mahomes through the air than on the ground as Mahomes ran six times for 38 yards. I see that mentality carrying over today and have Allen projected for seven rush attempts in Philadelphia.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-125 | Play to -145 at DraftKings)
Evan Engram has cleared this combined line in seven of 10 games this season as he quietly leads the Jaguars with 59 catches.
His 7.4 targets per game are second on the team, but his Average Depth of Target is only 4.4 yards – meaning the Jaguars tight end is getting a multitude of high-percentage passes from Trevor Lawrence.
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Engram gets a fantastic matchup against the Texans today. Houston allows 9.4 targets per game and a 28.3% Target Share to tight ends, and both are the highest in the NFL.
Seven tight ends have grabbed at least five passes in the Texans' last eight games, including Engram’s seven-catch performance back in Week 3.
After two straight four-catch performances in tougher matchups, this is a fantastic bounce-back spot for the Jaguars tight end. I have Engram projected at six catches for close to 50 yards today.
Pick: Evan Engram 5+ Receptions & 25+ Receiving Yards (-113 | Play to -135 at FanDuel)
