NFL Week 17 Predictions, Picks: 3 Bets Against the Spread
Every week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and betting card for every Sunday slate in my NFL Week 17 predictions and against the spread picks.
For reference, my season-long sides record in this file sits at 36-15 (70.6%) for +19.45 units after last Sunday's sweep.
For my expert picks against the spread in Week 17, I'm targeting three sides that kick off in the early Sunday slate.
Odds as of Saturday morning.
I've been fortunate enough to hit all 11 sides in Bills games I've bet this season, so hopefully I can stretch that streak to 12 in a spot I had circled after last weekend's lackadaisical effort in Los Angeles.
I believe that had more to do with a horrible spot on a short week headed out west against a rested Chargers team that got embarrassed and made a coaching change. This now sets up as a refocus spot at home, with an extra day of rest and preparation against a division rival they already lost to earlier in the season.
Historically speaking, during the Josh Allen tenure, when the Bills win, they win big. I think they do that here against a bad Patriots squad that has a number of key injuries along the offensive line, at a number of skill positions and across the entire back end of their defense.
I've really liked what I've seen from new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who has remained flexible on a week-to-week basis depending on the matchup. As a result, Allen might be unleashed through the air against a Patriots defense that ranks second against the run but 17th against the pass (according to DVOA).
Ultimately, that should lead to Buffalo building an early lead in front of a raucous crowd in Orchard Park, which will force the Patriots to lean more on Bailey Zappe in a trailing game state. That won't end well against a Buffalo defensive unit trending in the right direction after making key schematic adjustments and acquiring cornerback Rasul Douglas.
In addition, the Bills should get stud defensive tackle DaQuan Jones back from injury after he practiced in full Wednesday. They also may benefit from Micah Hyde returning at safety. Both would provide a huge boost to a defense that should generate pressure on Zappe, who will have to operate behind a potentially severely shorthanded offensive line.
While Zappe played pretty well last Sunday night in Denver, he still ranks 46th out of 48 quarterbacks in Adjusted EPA per play (min. 100 dropbacks), ahead of only Trevor Siemian and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I'm expecting Zappe to make a key mistake or two that will ultimately bury New England's chances of keeping this close.
Lastly, don't forget how poor the Patriots have performed on special teams this season, ranking 31st in DVOA. The Bills will have a significant edge in that department as well.
I'm not usually a fan of laying double digits in divisional matchups (45% ATS historically), but I'm willing to make an exception for this specific spot.
Trending: Following an outright win as an underdog of seven-plus points, teams that catch a touchdown or more in their following game have gone just 13-30-2 (30.2%) ATS since 2010, failing to cover by 5.3 points per game on average.
Pick: Bills -13 (Bet to -13) |
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I'm going back to the well with the Falcons for a second straight Sunday after their beatdown of the Colts.
As I said last week, I thought the Falcons were undervalued in the market after a brutally unlucky 1-5 stretch in games decided by five points or fewer. The Falcons could easily be sitting in first place in the NFC South with a couple of different bounces despite Desmond Ridder literally throwing games away with horrid turnovers before losing his job — for a second time — to Taylor Heinicke.
While it's not a remarkable discrepancy, I have Heinicke as an upgrade. To date, Heinicke ranks 15th in Adjusted EPA per play at +0.104, while Ridder ranks 31st at -0.028. He is much better equipped to attack this Bears defense, which is a bit more vulnerable against the pass.
Despite that convincing victory over the Colts, the Falcons are still undervalued based on my numbers. While I'm continuing to buy low on Atlanta, this spot also allows me to sell high on a Bears team that I believe has started to get a bit too much love and has probably reached peak value.
Chicago has certainly played better with improved health on both sides of the ball, in addition to the midseason acquisition of Montez Sweat, who has provided a much-needed rush off the edge. However, this is still a below-average team with victories over the following opponents:
- Vikings (with Joshua Dobbs)
- Raiders (with Brian Hoyer)
- Commanders
- Cardinals
- Panthers
- Lions (with outdoor pumpkin Jared Goff)
Three of those victories came over quarterbacks who are now backups, while two others came at home against the two worst teams in the league.
From a matchup perspective, Atlanta's defense, which leads the league in Rush EPA, has suffocated opposing ground attacks all season, especially since getting David Onyemata and Nate Landman back.
Consequently, I don't see the Bears having much success on the ground, especially with a couple of key potential injuries in the interior of the offensive line. That will force Justin Fields to move the ball through the air, which may prove difficult with a hobbled group of pass-catchers.
Tight end Cole Kmet and wide receiver Darnell Mooney both missed practice on Wednesday, and D.J. Moore may not have his normal burst after hurting his ankle in the victory over Arizona.
While the Falcons may also find it difficult to run on Chicago's stingy run defense, I trust Heinicke and a much healthier set of weapons to move it through the air, especially if they finally get all five starting offensive linemen back.
Since I have these teams power rated almost evenly, I happily took the field goal in what I think sets up as a favorable matchup for Atlanta, which also comes into this game with fewer potential key absences.
Trending: All 16 of Atlanta's games have had a spread of 3.5 or less, which has never happened in NFL history.
Pick: Falcons +2.5 |
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This is my favorite weekly buy low, sell high spot.
It's amazing how quickly people have forgotten this Tampa team recently had a 1-6 stretch. Then it reeled off four straight victories that have put them in sell territory, in my humble opinion.
Those four victories came against the Panthers (by three at home), the Falcons (on a last-minute touchdown), the Jaguars (who are in free-fall mode) and the Packers (whose defense continues to collapse with each passing week). Color me not that impressed.
While Baker Mayfield has certainly exceeded almost everybody's expectations in his first season in The Big Guava, he's also benefited from good fortune. The former Oklahoma product has thrown for 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions despite a 21:19 Big-Time Throw:Turnover-Worthy Play Ratio, per PFF. It's likely only a matter of time before the mistakes start to burn him.
The Buccaneers as a whole have also enjoyed quite a bit of good luck on the season, as evidenced by a current rank of No. 2 in our most recent Luck Rankings, driven by an 8-7 overall record compared to a 6-9 record based on Expected Score. Tampa Bay has performed much better on late downs, ranking 12th in EPA per Play, which is harder to sustain and less predictive than its ranking of 22nd in EPA per Play on early downs. They've also enjoyed good fortune in terms of fumbles (lost only six of 18), fourth downs and red-zone defense.
Conversely, the Saints rank 31st in our latest Luck Rankings, making this matchup the biggest discrepancy of the weekend. Historically, backing the unlucky team in these matchups has been extremely profitable. For reference, unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later have gone a sparkling 28-7-2 ATS (80%) over the last six years, including 16-1-1 when on the road.
Plus, Tampa Bay can't run the ball efficiently, ranking 27th in Rush DVOA, which has contributed to its early down offensive issues. That plays right into the strength of the New Orleans defense, which ranks 10th against the pass and 20th vs. the run.
You should get the Saints' best effort here after a mini-bye week following their loss on Thursday Night Football to the Rams. That extended rest and preparation holds more weight later in the season, especially for an older team like New Orleans.
Ultimately, I just don't have much separating these teams, so I jumped at the opportunity to buy low on a Saints team everybody is now seemingly fully out on, while selling the Buccaneers after four straight victories. I happily pocketed the field goal in this divisional matchup where home-field advantage doesn't mean as much.
Trending: As a favorite, Baker Mayfield has gone just 13-25 (34.2%) ATS in his career, failing to cover by 2.9 points per game on average. Among 220 quarterbacks in our Action Labs database who have closed as a favorite at least once, Mayfield is the fifth-least profitable. As a favorite of three or more points, head coach Todd Bowles has gone just 6-14-2 ATS (30%).
Pick: Saints +2.5 (-120) |
