NFL Predictions: Week 4
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rams vs. Colts
The Colts have the better record, but the Rams have been the better team.
- The Rams have out-gained opponents by 83.3 total yards per game while the Colts have been out-gained in every game by an average of 45.0 yards.
- The Rams have gained 70 first downs on offense (third) and allowed 53 on defense (eighth), while the Colts have 56 offensive first downs (21st) and have allowed 64 on defense (23rd).
- The Rams are averaging 5.3 yards per play on offense (13th) and 4.9 yards per play allowed on defense (11th), while the Colts are averaging 4.6 yards per play on offense (25th) and 5.0 yards per play allowed on defense (25th).
One of the key edges for the Rams comes at quarterback, where Matthew Stafford is up against Anthony Richardson in his third NFL start. Stafford is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt to Richardson’s 5.9 this season, and his 0.063 Adjusted EPA per play mark ranks 16th, six spots better than Richardson (0.016).
These two teams are on the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of turnover luck – the Colts have a +2 turnover margin and no giveaways since Week 1, while the Rams have a -3 turnover margin – which should regress to the mean over time. That’s one of the reasons this matchup clocks in at No. 1 in our Week 4 Luck Rankings with a Luck Gap of 21 and a Luck Differential of 45.6% relative to the Colts.
I thought Sean McVay had one of his worst games as a coach in last Monday night’s 19-16 loss to the Bengals, but he has been one of the best coaches at putting his team in position to bounce back following a loss. Per our Action Labs data, the Rams are 21-12-3 (64%) against the spread (ATS) after a loss under McVay, covering by 2.5 points per game.
That includes an 11-5-3 (69%) ATS mark on the road after a loss, with an average cover margin of 4.1 points per game.
I'd bet the Rams all the way across zero to -2.
Pick: Rams +1 (Bet to Rams -2)
Steelers vs. Texans
This a perfect time to sell high on the Steelers, who are coming off back-to-back outright wins as underdogs in primetime. It’s also a great time to buy low on C.J. Stroud, who already has the looks of an average-to-above-average NFL quarterback three starts into his pro career.
Among 34 qualified quarterbacks, Stroud is fifth in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (8.1), 10th in passer rating (98.0), and 14th in success rate (46.2%). For comparison, Kenny Pickett is 24th in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (5.9), 25th in passer rating (80.2), and 28th in success rate (38.4%). And among 33 qualifiers as a rookie last year, Pickett was also well behind where Stroud is thus far, ranking last in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (5.5), 32nd in passer rating (76.7), and 24th in success rate (44.0%).
As a result of the disparity in quarterback play, the Texans offense has been league-average despite an injury-ravaged offensive line, while the Steelers have been one of the league’s worst offenses. The Texans rank 17th in points per drive (1.79) and 18th in EPA per play (-0.048) while the Steelers rank 29th (1.13) and 30th (-0.202), respectively. Houston is eighth with 11 red-zone trips while the Steelers are dead last with just three. The Texans are due for regression in red-zone touchdown conversion rate – typically a volatile stat – as their 27.3% mark ranks dead last.
These are two evenly matched teams where the Steelers' biggest edge – T.J. Watt going against a Texans offensive line missing left tackle Laremy Tunsil, among a slew of others – is not worth four-plus points, which is what is implied by the Texans being three-point underdogs at home. After taking 11 sacks in his first two starts, Stroud was not sacked at all on 31 dropbacks in Week 3, as he showed improvement in the quickness of his reads, getting the ball out in 2.5 seconds or less 64.6% of the time – up from 45.3% in Weeks 1-2. Entering Week 4, Stroud’s 8.1 yards per attempt when getting the ball out in 2.5 seconds or less ranks second in the NFL.
Mike Tomlin is one of the best ever at rallying his troops when they are underdogs, but with that comes letdowns in spots such as this one. Per our Action Labs data, the Steelers are 15-25-1 (40%) ATS as a road favorite coming off a win under Tomlin, falling short of the closing line by an average of 2.3 points per game.
When facing a team below .500 in this spot, the Steelers are just 9-22-1 (29%) ATS, failing to cover by 3.2 points per game.
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Ravens vs. Browns
This is a matchup of two of the NFL’s top defenses. The Browns defense ranks first in early-down success rate (25.7%) and first in yards per play (3.2), while the Ravens defense ranks second in both metrics (35.9%, 4.1).
Both offenses are dealing with massive injuries. The Browns already lost Nick Chubb (knee), whose career 5.3 yards per carry is nearly 2 full yards above new starter Jerome Ford (3.5) and nearly one full yard more than new backup Kareem Hunt (4.5).
Deshaun Watson is questionable with a shoulder injury on his throwing arm, which, at best, will likely force a run-heavy game plan at best, and at worst, the insertion of rookie fifth-round pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson into the lineup, with him potentially making his first NFL start if Watson can’t go at all.
The Ravens, meanwhile, will be without left tackle Ronnie Stanley (knee) and wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) and Rashod Bateman (hamstring).
Per our Action Labs data, divisional unders in Week 4 are 27-12 (69%) since 2015, covering by 2.7 points per game.
