NFL Week 14 kicks off at Acrisure Stadium, and we have Patriots vs Steelers best bets, props, picks for Thursday Night Football.
The Patriots vs Steelers spread for TNF has the Steelers as favorites in the range of 5-to-6 points with a game total over/under of 30 or 30.5. We have one betting analyst who makes the case for the Patriots to cover the spread, plus another NFL pick for this historically low game total. We also have anytime touchdown player props for Ezekiel Elliott and Pat Freiermuth.
Our staff of NFL analysts are all over this game with this TNF betting preview. Here are our four Patriots vs Steelers best bets.
Patriots vs Steelers Best Bets: Props & Picks for Thursday Night Football
Click on the team logos or a pick below to navigate to a specific TNF bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Patriots vs Steelers Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 30.5 -110o / -110u | +215 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 30.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
Patriots vs. Steelers
Six points is a lot for a team to get in a game with a total this low (30). Backing teams that have been shut out in their previous game — like the Patriots — has been a winning proposition over the last two decades as they have covered 60% of the time.
For as poor as the Patriots have looked, the Steelers offense has not been considerably more impressive. Pittsburgh has failed to reach 17 points in three straight games and now has to start Mitch Trubisky. While it’s mostly a lateral move from Kenny Pickett, Trubisky can be erratic, which means the Patriots defense could strike for game-changing turnovers at any time.
In a low-scoring grind of a game, you can expect a heavy dose of the running game from both teams. The Patriots have a clear advantage on defense in this regard.
New England allows a league-low 3.38 yards per carry to running backs while Pittsburgh is 19th in the same category. Bailey Zappe will be the quarterback most likely to find himself in manageable third-down situations.
This is simply too many points to afford the better defense. Play the Patriots +6.
Patriots vs. Steelers
By Nick Giffen
This game features the lowest total since December 2005, but I believe this is an overreaction to a few factors.
The luck factor is the most prominent element in this. This game has a Luck Total of +5.4, putting it in Luck Over territory. Luck Overs have gone 33-18-1 (64.4%) to the over the past six seasons, including 3-1 this year and 2-0 in primetime.
The Patriots' last three games have featured a total of just 39 points. It's in the heads of the public that this is just the new norm for Patriots games. However, these games have had an average Expected Score of 30.1 points per game, which is conveniently right where the total sits.
I'm not so sure this should be the new normal, too. After all, the Patriots averaged 15 points per game prior to those three games, with an average offensive Expected Score of 16 points. And that came despite a harder schedule in those first nine games, where their opponents ranked 16th on average defensively compared to 22nd on average in the most recent three-game stretch.
In other words, these 30-point expected totals from the last three games should be the absolute floor for this one.
I also think the specific injuries may help. As mentioned, the yards per carry from Stevenson to Elliott is a minimal dip, and the Patriots have actually had a higher success rate with Elliott.
There may also be a bit more upside with Zappe as he's had a higher yards per attempt and yards per completion. The downside is Zappe has had a higher sack rate than Jones, but only by about a percentage point, which isn't going to matter as much against a Steelers team that is league average in pressure rate.
On the Steelers side, Najee Harris popped up on the injury report, and if he's unable to go that could actually favor the over a bit more as well. That's because Warren will pick up the bulk of Harris' work, and he's just a more explosive player.
Warren has averaged more than a full yard per carry better than Harris in each of their two seasons together. That includes a higher success rate and explosive play rate in each. Warren is also the better pass-catcher, so he could potentially be an overall upgrade to the offense.
It's also possible Mitch Trubisky is a bit of an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. Last year, Trubisky had the overall better metrics, and Pickett hasn't shown any significant improvement this year.
Just like the side, I'm going to roll with the luck trends and take the over on the 30-point total. Use our live NFL odds page to make sure you're getting the best number before you put your bet in.
Pick: Over 30
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Patriots vs. Steelers
With Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined, Elliott should see at least 15 carries on Thursday Night Football. Elliott has two touchdowns and 14 red-zone carries on the season, so he was getting touches even before the Stevenson injury.
There's almost nothing to like about what the Patriots do on offense, but they do have the fifth-best run-block win rate in the league. Now they face an average Steelers run defense — 15th in rush DVOA — that gave up two rushing scores to James Conner last week.
With Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, it's entirely possible the Patriots defense forces some turnovers and gives their offense a short field to work with.
Patriots vs. Steelers
I’m not entirely sure there will be a touchdown scored on TNF, but the odds on Freiermuth are solid. Freiermuth, who occasionally shows flashes of greatness, is a solid tight end and these odds should be closer to +350.
Freiermuth has scored twice in seven games this season and 11 times across 39 career games. He’s third on the team in red-zone targets this season despite missing five games.
Last season, he only had two touchdowns but was second on the team in red-zone targets. He could be due for positive regression in regards to touchdowns and I would hit this bet all the way down to +400.
