Bills vs Steelers Prediction, Pick, Odds | NFL Wild Card
My Bills vs Steelers prediction and pick for Wild Card Monday is on the spread. The latest Bills vs Steelers odds have Buffalo installed as a 10-point favorite with a game total over/under of 38.5 at most sportsbooks (39 at bet365).
The Bills capped their miraculous second half of the season with a Week 18 win over the Dolphins that secured the AFC East and the No. 2 seed. This team looked doomed to miss the postseason altogether a couple of months ago, but they are now in prime position to make a Super Bowl run.
Key inactives include LB T.J. Watt (knee) for the Steelers and WR Gabe Davis (knee) and CB Rasul Douglas (knee) for the Bills.
Bills vs Steelers Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10 -105 | 39 -110o / -110u | -525 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10 -115 | 39 -110o / -110u | +390 |
Bills vs. Steelers Preview
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bills and Steelers match up statistically:
Bills vs. Steelers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 3 | 6 |  |
| Pass DVOA | 3 | 6 | |
| Rush DVOA | 7 | 9 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 15 | 12 | |
| Pass DVOA | 20 | 9 | |
| Rush DVOA | 12 | 17 | |
The Steelers offense sparked when Mason Rudolph took over. When Kenny Pickett first went down with an injury, Mitch Trubisky was named the starter. Trubisky went 0-2 and was nothing short of horrific. The Steelers decided to give Rudolph a shot and he has been solid, going 3-0 with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
One important thing to note before diving further into this matchup is the weather, which will affect every aspect of the game. It’s impossible to know for sure how bad it will be until close to game time, but there are supposed to be winter storms in Buffalo on Sunday. The temperature will be well below freezing with about a 50% chance of snow and, most importantly, severe winds. The winds are expected to be well over 20 mph with gusts into the 40s.
Wind has a huge impact on the passing game and on special teams. When looking at quarterbacks that thrive in this weather, Josh Allen is the prototype.
To throw the ball in this wind, you need tremendous arm strength to make the ball cut through the wind gusts. Allen arguably has the strongest arm in the NFL and his ability to rush is also key as he won't need to force throws in inclement weather.
Bills vs Steelers Picks | FanDuel
Rudolph played in bad conditions (rain) against the Ravens in Week 18 and was largely ineffective. He only averaged 7.6 yards per attempt despite a broken play that led to a 71-yard touchdown pass. If you remove that play, Rudolph averaged a shocking 4.2 yards per attempt against a defense starting a big chunk of backups.
Tyler Huntley and the Ravens’ backup offense was on the other side and the Steelers did manage to win the game, but that type of performance — even in bad weather — likely won't be enough to beat the Bills.
Allen’s dominance during the Bills’ surge hasn't come from hitting deep balls to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Instead, they've thrived because of the run game and short passes to James Cook, Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir.
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That is how you want to attack in the bad weather. High throws downfield will get caught in the wind and could lead to turnovers. Meanwhile, short passes and a strong rushing attack will be tough to stop.
To make matters worse for the Steelers, they will be without T.J. Watt in this game. Watt is the heart and soul of their defense and arguably the best pass-rusher in the NFL. Without Watt, the Bills’ offensive line has a much easier task and should be able to give Allen the time he needs to make quick decisions in the passing game.
Bills vs. Steelers Prediction
For anyone afraid to lay this big of a number in the postseason: Since 2010, double-digit favorites in the NFL playoffs are 11-4 ATS. Also, to the Mike Tomlin as a 'dog crowd (of which I have often been a member), the last time these teams faced off in the 2022 regular season, the Bills steamrolled the Steelers by the score of 38-3.
The Bills are more talented than the Steelers on offense, and without Watt, the Steelers defense isn't the same.
