Saints vs Patriots Odds, Pick, Prediction: Spread, Total, More
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Saints vs. Patriots odds for Week 5 basically have this clash at Gillette Stadium as a pick’em, with the Patriots 1.5-point favorites shortly before kickoff, as we dive into Saints vs Patriots odds — the spread, total and more — and our pick and prediction for this NFL Week 5 matchup.
The Saints and Patriots are two teams desperate for a win. Mac Jones and Derek Carr both seem to have their jobs on the line early in the season with their teams heading in the wrong direction.
This should be a low-scoring defensive battle, so the quarterback who can make one or two more plays could be the difference in this matchup.
Continue reading below for our full New Orleans-New England betting preview, which includes a Saints vs. Patriots pick.
Saints vs. Patriots
Matchup Analysis
New England's had an interesting start to the season. Expectations were relatively low, especially for the Patriots franchise, but there were reasons for optimism.
They were a few inches away from upsetting the Eagles in Week 1, they had a chance to beat the Dolphins in Week 2 and they picked up a win over the Jets on the road in Week 3. However, the trouncing they took against the Cowboys really exposed their weaknesses.
Mac Jones has had a peculiar career with the Patriots. He was benched once last year and has never been that great by the numbers, but due to being in the Bill Belichick system, he managed to win a fair amount of games before this season.
His numbers looked decent through the first two weeks, though that could be attributed to the fact that he threw more passes than anyone in the NFL over that span. Against the Jets, simply not turning the ball over was enough to beat Zach Wilson.
Against the elite Cowboys defense, Jones got exposed. He turned the ball over multiple times in bad fashion, looked lost in the pocket and couldn’t complete anything down the field.
When the Patriots defense was having a hard time, he could not do anything to keep up. In EPA+CPOE composite, Jones is 28th amongst qualifying QBs, just barely ahead of Wilson.
Bet New Orleans vs. New England at FanDuel
Luckily for the Patriots, Derek Carr has not been much better.
Carr has been an above-average quarterback for most of his career, but this season he ranks in the bottom third (22nd in EPA+CPOE composite). The Saints offense overall finds themselves in the exact same spot in offensive DVOA (22nd). This offense has been unable to take advantage of their great stable of weapons in Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed and more.
The quarterback with a proven track record and the skill-position players are there for the Saints, which means the offensive failures fall on the coaching. Pete Carmichael Jr. has been the Saints' offensive coordinator since 2009 and has been with the team since 2006. He was not a play caller when Sean Payton was head coach and he thrived in his role because of his close relationship with Drew Brees. Now as the play caller under a defensive head coach, it has been a rough run for Carmichael.
Belichick thrives against poorly coached offenses. Nathaniel Hackett and Wilson had no answer for the defensive schemes that Belichick drew up and I expect the same thing to happen to Carmichael this week.
There is some concern around the Patriots’ injuries, but the Belichick defense is much more about the whole than the actual parts — I don’t expect there to be as big of a drop-off as some think.
Saints vs. Patriots
Betting Picks & Predictions
These are two top-10 defenses with the Patriots and Saints at eighth and ninth, respectively, in defensive DVOA.
Carr is coming in with a sore shoulder and the offensive coaching staff is in disarray. Belichick should handle them easily.
Meanwhile, the Saints defense had limited all of their opponents under 20 points this season until last week. I don’t expect Jones to be able to put up more than 21 and he should play more similarly to that Jets game, where the emphasis was to be mistake free and let the defense do the heavy lifting.
The highest combined total in a Saints game this season is 37 points — I don’t expect that to change this week. The Patriots beat the Jets 15-10 a couple of weeks ago and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a similar score in this one, with Belichick outdueling the Saints' coaching staff but neither offense able to do much of anything.
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