Eagles vs 49ers Odds, Prediction
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 47 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 47 -110o / -110u | -155 |
The marquee game of NFL Week 13, the latest Eagles vs. 49ers odds have visiting San Francisco installed as 3-point favorites on the spread with a game total over/under of 46.5 or 47, depending on the sportsbook. My NFL pick for this Week 13 matchup is backing San Francisco's offense for a big game.
The top two seeds in the NFC are set for a rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game. The 49ers are seeking revenge for that blowout defeat that was marred by Brock Purdy suffering an elbow injury on the first drive of the game. The Eagles won the NFC that day and are leading the conference once again with a 10-1 record after consecutive comeback victories over the Chiefs and Bills. Philadelphia rallied from a 17-7 halftime deficit and won in overtime at home against Buffalo despite conceding 505 yards of offense.
This game opened as close to a coin flip but has steadily moved toward San Francisco. Despite a worse record, the 49ers are clearly viewed by betting markets as the superior team, mainly because of their dominant offense, which factors into my Eagles vs. 49ers prediction.
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Eagles vs 49ers Prediction
Eagles vs. 49ers
Matchup Analysis
When Brock Purdy and has his full complement of offensive linemen and receiving options available, the 49ers have basically been a shoo-in for 27 points for more. Since Purdy became the starter in Week 13 last season, he's started and finished 20 games as quarterback. San Francisco has tallied at least 27 points in 15 of those games, with just five exceptions.
Three of them came in consecutive games this season, all San Francisco losses. Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams suffered injuries against Cleveland and didn't play in the next two games, while Purdy himself also played through a concussion against Minnesota and then had multiple red-zone turnovers to finish with just 17 against Cincinnati despite 8.2 yards per play.
San Francisco's offense has become a supernova since he took over as quarterback, and the Niners are elite at using the middle of the field to pick apart defenses. That's one area where the Eagles are especially vulnerable.
Philly struggles against tight ends and has had problems with in breakers from slot and split-out wide receivers at times. The Eagles don't have a natural slot corner to fill that matchup, which gives Kyle Shanahan a lot of creative options to exploit them.
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Regardless of what you think of his true value or MVP credentials, Purdy is No. 1 in EPA per play, EPA + CPOE composite and success rate amongst all NFL quarterbacks. In the context of this offense, no unit has been more efficient than the Niners.
Purdy has a 56.6% dropback success rate — that's 3.2% better than every other passer in the NFL. The idea you’ll hear is that the Eagles' defensive line can generate pressure and rattle him into mistakes. But even when pressured this year, Purdy is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt and has eight big-time throws.
There are a couple concerning injury designations for the Eagles defense entering Sunday.
Linebacker Zach Cunningham (hamstring) has been ruled out and defensive lineman Fletcher Cox (groin) didn't practice all week and is questionable. Philadelphia has enough depth on the defensive line to cover for Cox, but the linebacker room was thin to begin with and is already without Nakobe Dean (foot).
The situational spot of coming off two physical contests against Kansas City and Buffalo back to back, especially with the 95 plays for Buffalo, is a huge contrast to the situation for San Francisco.
The 49ers played on Thanksgiving and cruised to an easy victory, which gave them extra rest and prep time. San Francisco is as healthy as it has been all season, with the exception being the loss of safety Talanoa Hufanga (torn ACL) for the season.
Eagles vs. 49ers
Betting Picks & Predictions
Game state is a crucial facet of handicapping this game. The Eagles haven't been nearly as good at killing off games with leads in the second half, but their methodical run offense — highlighted by the brotherly shove — can take possessions away from San Francisco in the second half if the Eagles are leading.
The problem for Philadelphia has been its offense in the first half. While San Francisco is elite on the early game script and has the No. 1 offense by EPA and success rate in the first half, the Eagles are outside the top 10 in both rushing and passing EPA.
Credit to Brian Johnson and the coaching staff for adjusting in game and finding second-half success, but a script in which the Eagles are playing from behind will lead to more possessions and ultimately more points than one in which they're playing from out front.
The 49ers run game is plenty explosive if they're playing from ahead, and I remain of the belief that the market has overvalued the quality of the Eagles secondary. Purdy's improvements under pressure, the health of the Niners offense and the poor situational spot for the potentially exhausted Eagles defense lands me on San Francisco's team total over.
