Steelers vs Raiders Odds Week 3
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
Sunday Night Football for NFL Week 3 is here. The Sunday slate is capped by Pittsburgh and Las Vegas – that means it’s time for Steelers vs. Raiders picks, player props and more.
The Steelers vs. Raiders spread has Las Vegas as favorites of a field goal across all books in this throwback rivalry match at Allegiant Stadium. We have betting analysts who are siding with the Raiders and we also have a pick for the game total, plus player props for Josh Jacobs and the embattled Kenny Pickett.
Our staff of NFL analysts are all over this game with this betting preview. From Steelers vs. Raiders spread picks to player props, here are our experts' four best bets for Sunday Night Football.
Steelers vs. Raiders Picks, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8:20 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Steelers vs. Raiders
I'm 1-1 so far with my best bets this season. The Lions were not up to the challenge last week, but I'll look to bounce back with the Raiders in Week 3.
This is a team that is at its best when it runs the ball and gets pressure on the quarterback. Those two things are very much in play this week against the Steelers.
Josh Jacobs has not been very efficient in the first two games of the season (he had negative rushing yards against the Bills), but I expect that to change in the Raiders' home opener. The Steelers are 31st in EPA against the run and dead last in yards allowed after contact. They have easily been the worst tackling team in the NFL.
On top of that, this is a short week for Pittsburgh, which had to travel across the country. There's also a decent chance that safety Minkah Fitzpatrick misses this game, which would be a blow to the Steelers defense.
The Steelers are coming off a win against the Browns, but it was not thanks to the offense. The only explosive play was essentially a deep slant (that was almost a sack) that George Pickens was able to take to the house. Other than that, this offense has been atrocious through the first two games. Pittsburgh can't rely on its defense to score two touchdowns every week.
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Steelers vs. Raiders
By Cody Goggin
Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense have been terrible this season, there’s no denying that. However, I think that this week we will see them turn some things around.
For starters, let’s keep in mind the competition level the Steelers have faced. Both the 49ers and Browns have strong defensive fronts and were able to wreak havoc on the Pittsburgh offensive line. This has led to Pittsburgh having the worst Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade in the league at 25.1 and the third-worst run blocking grade in the league.
The Las Vegas defense has been on the opposite side of the spectrum. The Raiders rank last in the league this season in opponent available yards gained. They're 29th in PFF run defense grade and 25th in pass rush grade. Using tracking data hasn’t been much more kind to them either, as they're 26th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate and 23rd in run stop win rate. Las Vegas is also 31st in the league in EPA per play allowed.
On the other side of the ball the Raiders have surprisingly been really good. Vegas ranks sixth in available yards gained, fifth in EPA per dropback, and fifth in dropback success rate. Garoppolo is third in the league in EPA+CPOE composite and even has the 10th-highest ADOT in the league, which isn’t typically thought to be his strength.
The Steelers’ defense is always tough, especially the pass rush, but this offensive line has proven to be capable so far. Vegas is second in pass block win rate and first in PFF pass blocking grade.
Pittsburgh is primed to get back on track offensively while I think that the Raiders can still put up their share of points. Playing without any weather concerns in Las Vegas, I see this game hitting the over of 43 points and would take this number up to 44.
Steelers vs. Raiders
This handicap is quite simple.
This game will be closely contested and sets up well for the Raiders to sustain a ground attack. The Steelers offense has totaled two red-zone trips this season and ranks 31st in yards per drive. It's very difficult to envision a scenario in which the Raiders face too negative of a game script at home in game that has them favored.
The Steelers rush defense without Cameron Heyward is porous. Thus far, opposing running backs have averaged more than six yards per rush against the Pittsburgh front. The Raiders will opt to protect Jimmy Garoppolo by featuring the run game as they did back in Week 1 against the Broncos.
If Las Vegas is to get a lead, Jacobs has a great chance to receive 20 carries. In the nine games in which he reached that threshold in 2022, he exceeded 75 yards rushing. In fact, in all 24 games of his career in which he toted the rock 20 times, he has eclipsed 75 yards on the ground.
I'd bet this up to 74.5.
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 71.5 Rushing Yards
Steelers vs. Raiders
While I'm not a huge Pickett guy, this line is too low in this spot.
Pickett has hit the over at this number in each of his first two games this season despite subpar performances. He now gets a matchup against one of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Raiders, who ranked 26th in DVOA last season.
The Steelers have also been running way more than they should, and I assume that they are going to try and put the ball in the air more now, which should benefit not only the Steelers but also Pickett.
While this should be an ugly game, this line is just too low and I would hit it to 230.5.
