Steelers vs Texans Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 42 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 42 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Steelers vs. Texans odds have Pittsburgh laying a field goal in NFL Week 4.
Through the first three games of the season, many are already crowning C.J. Stroud as the best quarterback of the 2023 NFL Draft class. That's been the case when he's been kept clean, but he's also struggled under pressure — just as he did in college.
Let's preview the game and make our Steelers vs. Texans pick.
Steelers vs. Texans
Matchup Analysis
Stroud has largely looked like a competent NFL quarterback this season. He is turning a lot of heads and is sixth in the league in passing yards through three weeks. He's also yet to throw an interception.
When you watch Stroud, you see exactly what you saw at Ohio State. He has a cannon for an arm and the ability to hit open receivers with deadly accuracy on quick dropbacks. However, when things don’t happen right away, or when he faces pressure, things go downhill fast.
Of 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Stroud ranks 33rd in PFF grade when under pressure, ahead of only Gardner Minshew. When under pressure, Stroud is tied for the league lead with four turnover-worthy plays and has been sacked 10 times.
Injuries have not helped this at all. This weekend, the Texans will again be without All-Pro left tackle Laremy Tunsil, as well as his backup, Josh Jones. They're also down to their third starting left guard, third starting center and second starting right tackle of the year. All around, this unit is battered by injuries.
Unfortunately for Stroud, the Texans face the Steelers.
Bet Pittsburgh vs. Houston at FanDuel
Known for their defensive physicality, the Steelers rank fourth in PFF pass rushing grade and are always among the best in the league at making life difficult on opposing quarterbacks. With T.J. Watt leading the way, the Steelers will have Stroud running for his life all day. In turn, that'll likely lead the rookie starter into a handful of mistakes.
Pittsburgh ranks ninth in both EPA per play allowed and dropback EPA allowed. The 1.14 yards before contact by Pittsburgh's defensive line is tied for third in the league.
The Steelers are also ninth in run stop win rate. Pittsburgh's defense will be able to stuff Dameon Pierce and force Stroud into a lot of third-and-long situations.
Last weekend, I wrote about how I believed the Steelers offense would rebound against a weak defense. Well, that came true as Pittsburgh put 23 points on the board against Las Vegas.
I think that will be the case again this weekend. The Texans have had very little production from their front seven and rank last in PFF run defense grade and 31st in PFF pass rushing grade.
Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t one of the top units in the league, but it will be able to do enough against a Texans defense that hasn’t provided much resistance this season.
Steelers vs. Texans
Betting Picks & Predictions
I believe Stroud will be facing pressure more often than not, and that the Steelers will force him into a lot of passing situations. As such, the Texans offense will struggle as Stroud fails to escape the grasp of Watt and company.
On the other side, I think the Steelers will play their usual game and methodically march down the field. They may not score much more than 20 points, but they will pull out a victory in the end.
You can still find this line under a field goal, so be sure to shop around. I like taking the Steelers at -2.5, but would play them up to -3.
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