Brewers vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 16, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I wanted to lock this in before most books move down to 5.5 (still like it there) since paying the juice to have exposure to 6 is worth it. Glasnow’s strikeout rate has taken a hit this year, dropping to 29%, his lowest mark in eight seasons. He’s been getting behind in counts with a career-low 55% first-pitch strike rate, and hitters are chasing at a career-low 22% rate. He has historically racked up strikeouts by getting hitters to chase unhittable pitches out of the zone, supported by one of the lowest chase-contact rates among starting pitchers (36% this season). So it is critical to face teams that will expand the zone. The Brewers make that difficult, as they chased at the lowest rate in MLB this year. Glasnow tried to adjust late in the season by throwing more sinkers (his lowest whiff-rate pitch) likely just to get ahead in the count or induce weak contact when hitters stopped chasing his curve/slider combo. His curveball is still his best strikeout pitch with a 44% whiff rate, but the Brewers had the 5th-lowest whiff rate against curveballs. I have him facing around 22 hitters tonight. His best strikeout opportunity, Jake Bauers (around 40% K chance first PA), is likely buried in the 8-spot, which makes it unlikely Glasnow sees him a third time. Even facing a couple extra batters would not help much with Frelick and Durbin projected around the 6-7 spots, since both have just a 15-18% strikeout chance in their first plate appearance. I project Under 6.5 closer to -230 and Under 5.5 closer to -125 (so still fine taking +110 at FanDuel if you rather go that route). Edit: forgot to add home plate ump James Hoye has been absolutely brutal to pitchers last couple months and squeezing them at one of the highest rates in the league.

@Zerillo https://myaction.app/92nj6Tm4vXb

Bet to +100

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