Pirates vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - April 14, 2024

Pirates at Phillies

5:35 pm • SportsNet PT

Pittsburgh Pirates

0-0

9 - 2

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
Z.Wheeler			2.57	16-7
M.Keller			4.25	11-12

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 0-0	+1.5-126	o8.5-122	+164
Phillies 1-3	-1.5+105	u8.5+100	-198

Sunday 5:35 p.m.

April 14, 2024

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

Under 8.5+105

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-115

K.Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases+110

0.5u

Ballpark pal gives this an extreme advantage for Schwarber and +ev bet with devig odds of -123 giving us value at this number

PIT +165

1.65u

... big dog with bad starting pitcher Overall: 552-689-0,44% (ROI:18%) Season:2-3-0,40% (ROI:9%) ... non div dog sp k rate >16% Overall: 463-560-1,45% (ROI:15%) Season:1-5-0,17% (ROI:-60%)

Under 9-115

0.58u

Bet to -117

Over 9+100

$50.00

J.Rojas u0.5 Hits+120

Really hates hitting

PHI -1.5+115

In Wheeler We Trust

Z.Wheeler o7.5 Ks+150

0.75u

Ballpark pal projects 7.59 Ks and +EV bet with devig odds of +106 giving this number great value

Featured Insight
The Pirates have allowed just 1.5 runs per game in the first five innings over the last week -- tied for second lowest in MLB (6 games). The Phillies have scored just 1.4 runs per game in the first five innings over the last week -- third lowest in MLB (7 games).

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Featured Insight
Phillies RPs have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2022 season -- seventh highest in MLB. Pirates have struck out 25% since the 2022 season -- tied for second highest in MLB.

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The Phillies are 21-13 (.618) after a home loss since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .508.

The Phillies are 54-42 (.562) after a win since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .509.

44% of Alec Bohm strikeouts were looking last season -- highest in MLB-- 100th Percentile. 35% of Mitch Keller strikeouts were looking last season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 97th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (632/1,473) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler located 43% of his pitches inside (910/2,131) in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% -- 97th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Phillies' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21
Pirates	88-74	43-38	45-36	29-34	59-39

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2
Pirates	77-81-4	40-38-3	37-43-1	31-30-2	46-50-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19
Pirates	76-86	39-42	37-44	35-28	41-57

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 13th	PIT	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	PHI -162
Apr 12th	PIT	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 9	PIT -163
Apr 11th	PIT	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 9	PHI -132
Apr 10th	@STL	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 8	PHI -140
Apr 9th	@STL	L 0-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	STL -140

Max Kepler
OF
Kepler is out with knee
Out
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out

Ke'Bryan Hayes
IF
Hayes is out with back
Out
Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Endy Rodriguez
C
Rodriguez is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	95	7	4	2
LJ.Fleming, P	5	1	1	0
RR.Ryan, P	12	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1O.Cruz, SS	0-5	0	0	0
2B.Reynolds, RF	0-5	0	0	0
3K.Hayes, 3B	2-4	2	0	0
4R.Tellez, 1B	2-4	1	0	0
5A.McCutchen, DH	2-5	3	1	2
6J.Suwinski, LF	2-4	1	1	4
7J.Triolo, 2B	1-5	1	0	0
8M.Taylor, CF	0-4	0	0	0
9J.Bart, C	1-2	1	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Wheeler, P	100	5	10	4
RS.Dominguez, P	20	1	3	1
RO.Kerkering, P	14	1	1	0
RR. Pinto, P	48	2	1	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	0-4	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	3-4	1	1	2
3B.Harper, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
4J.Realmuto, C	1-4	0	0	0
5A.Bohm, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
6B.Marsh, LF	1-4	0	0	0
7N.Castellanos, RF	1-3	0	0	0
8B.Stott, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
9J.Rojas, CF	1-3	1	0	0