The college football season is entering early October purgatory. We think we know about most teams, but there are still some outfits we are struggling to understand.
Is Georgia actually slipping? Is Arkansas just bad? Is Maryland for real?
The slate is a little thin this week because of byes, but there's still plenty of action to enjoy.
This week is highlighted by Texas vs. Oklahoma and Alabama at Texas A&M as contenders from the Lone Star State collide with their biggest conference roadblocks.
League play is now in full swing across the country, and one of my favorite games of the week features a sizzling new Sun Belt star taking on the reigning conference champions.
Let’s kick back and enjoy this slate. But first, let’s take a look at some things to know from around the nation. Enjoy the games, and let's get to the window.
Ninety-three percent of bets tracked in the Action Network app and 96% of the money are on the Bulldogs of Ruston to cover as home underdogs, as of Tuesday evening.
The Louisiana Tech defense has been poor overall at 120th in SP+, but the Bulldogs' pass defense has been a pleasant surprise in efficiency metrics, and the unit ranks 12th in PFF Coverage Grade. The secondary will have to be more than just pleasantly surprising against the Hilltoppers' passing attack led by veteran gunslinger Austin Reed.
This looks like one of the most obvious overs of the day with a total of 64.5.
Both teams sport passing offense EPAs in the top 15 nationally. Both Tigers also have underperforming secondaries despite having NFL prospects in their defensive backfield; LSU is 123rd while Mizzou is 72nd in EPA/Pass Allowed.
The quarterbacks are hot, and the weather looks clear and crisp. One wrinkle could be LSU’s motivation — how will the Bayou Bengals respond to seeing their playoff dreams shattered by the beginning of October?
This is what Maryland does every year, right? Unlike their counterparts in the children’s story, these Terrapins sprint out of the gate in September, before the beef of the Big Ten brings them back to reality.
In 2019 it was Penn State, in 2021 it was Iowa, and in 2022 it was Michigan that outraced the Terps.
Can it change its own destiny in Columbus? One key matchup says no: Maryland’s rush defense ranks 116th in Success Rate, an ominous sign against a Buckeyes offense that always looks to prove it can pound the rock.
One of college football’s best rivalry games will be played as a Big 12 game for the last time. This is the first time since 2011 that both teams enter Red River undefeated; Oklahoma won that game, 55-17, 12 years ago.
Texas’ cadre of playmakers will have their hands full attacking an Oklahoma defense that Brent Venables is rebuilding out of the depths of the Lincoln Riley years.
Meanwhile, the Sooners crave revenge after being shut out 49-0 last year. This is a “sit back and enjoy it” game, but for best bets, we will have you covered — stay tuned to these electronic pages for our mega guide coming Friday.
The sickos out there should seek out this line when it gets posted later in the week. Virginia is 0-5 and perhaps the worst team in the Power 5; they are heading to a 2022 Colorado-like season.
Virginia faces a William & Mary team that is 4-1 and one of the most dangerous squads in the FCS. The Tribe are coached by Mike London, former Cavs coach and would love a chance to knock off the big-name instate school.
SP+ favors Virginia by only 4.6 points.
One of the biggest total movers of the week so far, the number opened at 67.5 and plummeted to 59.5. In the offense-first Pac-12, both teams are well-balanced with top-30 defenses to go with their top-20 offenses (all according to SP+).
Both teams are fully rested coming off their bye week.
Once a year, these two crotchety old former coworkers put aside their public bickering and play an absolute humdinger of a ballgame. The Tide are short favorites at Kyle Field, a spot where they lost on a walk-off field goal in 2021.
Does Texas A&M have enough on offense to grab the inside track in the SEC West race?
With a total of 69.5, this is the highest over/under on the board in games that don’t feature a reigning Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback as both offenses are clicking right now.
Texas State has gone supernova under new head coach G.J. Kinne, a Gus Malzahn's disciple, as the Bobcats' uptempo offense ranks ninth in FBS in points per game.
Louisiana has improved since redshirt freshman Zeon Chriss was inserted into the lineup in Week 3; he brings a dynamic presence to the offense and has rushed for 82 yards per in his three full games.
You should tune in to our Group of Five Deep Dive podcast each week for excellent analysis and in-depth discussion of the programs and players that don’t command the biggest headlines.
But you should also tune in to find out how host Mike Calebrese will be roasting Trent Dilfer each week. Personally, I can’t wait to listen.
Arkansas State was left for dead after losing its first two contests by a combined score of 110-3. Newspapers were pre-writing the Butch Jones Fired pieces the way the New York Times keeps obituaries of famous old people.
Then true freshman Jaylen Raynor became the starting quarterback. The Red Wolves have since won three in a row and scored 96 points in their last two games as Raynor has accounted for 11 touchdowns in those games.
Now the difficulty ramps up a level; those wins over Southern Miss and UMass were nice, but a road game against defending league champion Troy and its tough defense is a much stiffer test.
This is a QB Injury Bowl.
Both John Rhys Plumlee for the Knights and Jalon Daniels for the Jayhawks have missed games this season and are considered day-to-day. They are both explosive athletes who elevate their team’s offense.
If either or both suit up, this could create live-betting opportunities based on how they look as the game unfolds.
After back-to-back weeks as three-touchdown underdogs, America’s Team finally gets a chance to breathe a little bit as they are favored in the desert. The Buffaloes will face a Sun Devils team that is on an injury-riddled four-game losing slide.
The Georgia Bulldogs have looked imminently beatable all season — well, for their standards, at least. The back-to-back champs are 5-0 in the win column but 0-5 ATS.
The Kentucky Wildcats were riding a similar trend until last week when they broke out and stomped the Florida Gators. The Wildcats lead the nation in creating explosive plays, but will they spring enough big plays on Georgia’s defense to dethrone the champs?
Old Dominion is one of the hardest teams to figure out.
One week the Monarchs are getting their doors blown out by a mediocre Virginia Tech, and the next week they are hanging close with Wake Forest. Then they almost lose to FCS Texas A&M Commerce and follow that up by grabbing a 21-3 lead over Marshall.
The first season of the new veer-and-shoot offense install has been a roller coaster in Norfolk. Old Dominion faces a similarly erratic Southern Miss squad in a game between two of the least predictable outfits in the Group of Five.
BJ Cunningham’s numbers tab this matchup as a game to target the over, especially after factoring in Ole Miss’ blistering pace. Both teams have been underwhelming on defense and should be exploited by these veteran quarterbacks.
This is a fun matchup between two Mountain West contenders, and it’s great to see it getting run in prime-time on national television. Fresno State is giving 5.5 points on the road at a place that eats road favorites for breakfast — just ask Texas Tech.
At 72.5, this is the highest total of the weekend, and for good measure. The USC Trojans look like they can get off the bus and score 50 every week this season. They might give up 42, but they’ll get their 50.
Arizona quarterback Jayden de Laura is battling an ankle injury that kept him out last week; backup Noah Fifita performed admirably in his stead in a seven-point loss (and cover) against Washington week. If anything, Fifita is actually steadier than the erratic de Laura.
