Broncos vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - November 14, 2023

Broncos at Bills

1:15 am • ABC/ESPN

Denver Broncos

5-4

24 - 22

Buffalo Bills

7-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Broncos 5-4	+7.5	+7.5-110	o47.5-103	+310
Bills 7-2	u47.5	-7.5-110	u47.5-112	-390

Tuesday 1:15 a.m.

November 14, 2023

Highmark StadiumOrchard Park

Over 46.5 (Live)-120

D.Kincaid o52.5 Rec Yds-135

0.25u

J.Jeudy First Touchdown Scorer+2000

J.Cook u2.5 Recs-105

0.48u

@gneiffer07

G.Davis Anytime TD Scorer Yes+220

0.5u

@gneiffer07

S.Perine o15.5 Rec Yds-120

0.42u

@PropBomb

D.Kincaid 50+ Receiving Yards Yes-140

0.36u

@PropBomb

J.Williams o2.5 Recs+114

0.57u

@charliedisturco

G.Davis o39.5 Rec Yds-110

0.45u

@charliedisturco

G.Davis Anytime TD Scorer+230

0.5u

@GDAWG5000 and @gneiffer07… we ride

Over 47.5-105

2.1u

Under 47.5-110

Under 48-110

0.91u

M.Mims o19.5 Rec Yds-110

1.1u

@PropBomb & @gneiffer07 and I all agreed on this pre-Action Island. Our Action Labs have this projected at 27 and Denver has been talking all week about getting Mims more involved

R.Wilson o1.5 Pass TDs+159

1.59u

J.Williams Anytime TD Scorer+150

1.5u

D.Kincaid u53.5 Rec Yds-120

DEN +7.5-110

Over 47.5-105

BUF -7-115

BUF -360

D.Kincaid o52.5 Rec Yds-140

1.4u

J.Allen u277.5 Pass Yds-137

0.73u

@The_Oddsmaker

G.Davis Anytime TD Scorer+160

@GDAWG5000

C.Sutton Anytime TD Scorer+170

1.7u

@GDAWG5000

D.Kincaid u54.5 Rec Yds-110

Given on Green Dot Daily

J.Allen u277.5 Pass Yds-115

Over 47-110

J.Williams o2.5 Recs+115

1.15u

Action Island at 5:30 pm ET

Over 47.5-102

G.Davis o37.5 Rec Yds-115

Tune into Action Island at 5:30 pm ET! Great buy low spot on Davis who had a bagel last week and had a great matchup against DEN that ranks 32nd in DVOA to WR2s. Diggs has also been banged up this week + a Pat Surtain shadow = great spot for Gabe

R.Wilson o19.5 Rush Yds-110

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/broncos-vs-bills-player-prop-bet-russell-wilson-on-monday-night-football

J.Williams o13.5 Rush Att-110

0.91u

J.McLaughlin o6.5 Rec Yds-115

J.Williams o2.5 Recs+112

1.12u

Under 47.5-105

0.95u

Under 47.5-110

1.14u

Over 47.5-110

0.75u

VegasInsider.com’s Razor Ray Monohan MNF Free Play! Follow on X @Cappers_Picks

DEN +7.5-110

DEN +7-110

0.91u

Under 47-110

0.91u

Over 46.5-108

D.Kincaid o52.5 Rec Yds-125

DEN +7.5-109

0.92u

G.Davis Anytime TD Scorer+230

Bet at FanDuel. At +130 at Bet365 and BetMGM and +150 at DK on Friday night. Grabbing now before it drops in price to reflect rest of market.

C.Sutton Anytime TD Scorer+250

2.5u

Bet at Bet365 on Friday. Down to +160 at DK. Hasn’t opened yet for FD but doubt it’ll be over +200. Locking in a good price before market moves.

A.Singleton o8.5 Tackles + Ast-115

Over in 5/L6, with 10+ in each over. Missed vs KC two weeks ago, but now gets BUF who’ve allowed an off-ball LB to hit this in each game but 1 (and that was JAX, when BUF’s offense was gross). Expecting BUF to dominate TOP.

DEN +7.5-108

0.46u

BUF -7.5-105

Available at FanDuel. The Bills are a great teaser leg if you can find a second dance partner, and I'd happily plug the Raiders there if they were to re-open at +1.5 or +2.5 against the Jets (they were +2.5 before last night). But the reasoning for liking the Bills there stems from how much my model likes them relative to the baseline spread of 7.5. I've got this number in the double digits, so we are getting enough of a discount to justify not getting a win if it lands on 7. The Bills have scuffled of late, but they still rank second in my model's offensive power rankings. Their defense has been the main issue, and they currently rank 27th there, but Denver is still dead last despite some recent improvements. Josh Allen's shoulder injury is a concern, but even with that, the Bills have maintained sicko levels of late-down success rate, and their early-down numbers are still respectable. With the Broncos coming off a bye and the Bills struggling, I get why this number is here. But I think that's an overreaction, so I'm on the Bills, whether it's in a straight bet here or as part of a teaser.

Featured Insight
The Broncos have a third down conversion rate of 42.0% since Week 5 -- tied for 10th-best in NFL. The Bills defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 45.0% since Week 5 -- tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
Bills QBs have a 99.6 passer rating this season -- eighth-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed a passer rating of 106.2 this season -- worst in NFL.

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How We're Live Betting Monday Night Football
Billy Ward•
Nov 14, 2023 UTC
Our Staff's 5 Best Bets for Broncos vs. Bills
Action Network Staff•
Nov 14, 2023 UTC
PropBetGuy’s Russell Wilson Prop Pick for MNF
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Broncos vs. Bills: Stuckey's Monday Night Football Pick
Stuckey•
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NFL Public Betting

Bills are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Bills are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Bills are 3-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Bills' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Bills' 4 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bills	5-4	2-2	3-2	4-2	1-2
Broncos	6-3	2-2	4-1	3-0	3-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Bills	5-4	4-0	1-4	5-1	0-3
Broncos	6-3	3-1	3-2	3-0	3-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bills	7-2	N/A	N/A	6-0	1-2
Broncos	5-4	N/A	N/A	3-0	2-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Nov 6th	@CIN	L 18-24	+1.5 L	U 50.5	CIN +105
Oct 27th	TB	W 24-18	-10 L	U 43	BUF -500
Oct 22nd	@NE	L 25-29	-7.5 L	O 41.5	NE -395
Oct 16th	NYG	W 14-9	-15.5 L	U 43.5	BUF -1200
Oct 8th	JAC	L 20-25	-5.5 L	U 48.5	JAC -235

Josh Reynolds
WR
Reynolds is out with hand
Out
P.J. Locke
S
Locke is out with thumb
Out
Delarrin Turner-Yell
S
Turner-Yell is out with knee
Out

Amari Cooper
WR
Cooper is out with wrist
Out
Reggie Gilliam
FB
Gilliam is out with hip
Out
Christian Benford
CB
Benford is out with wrist
Out
DeWayne Carter
DT
Carter is out with wrist
Out

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Broncos

Total

Bills

300

Total Yards

369

Total Plays

4.2

Yards Per Play

7.1

Broncos

Passing

Bills

193

YDS

177

24/29

Comps/Atts

15/26

5.394

YPA

6.808

2/0

TDs/INTs

1/2

4/15

Sacks/Yards

0/0

Broncos

Rushing

Bills

122

Rush Yards

192

Attempts

3.211

YPC

7.385

TDs

Broncos

Turnovers

Bills

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Broncos

Efficiency

Bills

2/3 66.67%

Redzone

2/2 100%

8/19 0%

3rd Down

3/8 0%

1/1 0%

4th Down

0/1 0%

Broncos

First Downs

Bills

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Broncos

Misc

Bills

10/61

Penalties/Yards

5/63

37:21

Possession

22:39

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MatchupOverUnder
Broncos 5-4	o19.5-120	u19.5-110
Bills 7-2	o28-107	u28-112

Broncos vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - November 14, 2023

Broncos at Bills

Denver Broncos

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Broncos at Bills Odds

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Broncos vs. Bills Previews & Analysis

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