Chargers vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - December 21, 2025

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The Cowboys are officially eliminated from the postseason, and they went out with a whimper on Sunday night. Will they even show up here? A no-show would be one easy route to an under. This is a pretty interesting matchup on paper — strength on strength, weakness on weakness. Dallas's offense is best, though its rushing attack has faded a bit behind a shaky offensive line, and that matters in this matchup against a gettable run defense. Jesse Minter's defense has been outstanding, especially against the pass. They should keep George Pickens ice cold and away from the deep stuff, slowing down the Cowboys offense. As for the Cowboys defense, maybe it hasn't improved so much after all. The run defense is closer to league average now but wasted on the Chargers, who can't find any offense to speak of right now anyway. Justin Herbert just can't find any time behind a shattered, terrible offensive line, and the Chargers rank bottom 10 both rushing and passing over the last six weeks and bottom five overall offensively by DVOA. I'm not sure I see either team finding much scoring, but any Cowboys under is obviously terrifying. That's especially true early since Cowboys games are an incredible 13-1 to the over in the first half. I'll duck that trend and play just the second-half under 24.5. I'm also looking to back Herbert — as a runner. He's already hit career highs in both rushing attempts and yards with three weeks to go, and his 30 YPG is nearly double his career rate. Herbert has at least 19 rushing yards in 10 of his 14 games (71%), and he's run for 57+ yards in nearly half (4 of 10) his last 10 games. Everyone knows Dallas allows the most fantasy points to QBs, but that's true both passing and rushing. Dallas allows the fourth-most rushing yards to QBs and has allowed at least 23 yards to the opposing QB in over half its games (8 of 14). Give me Herbert over 13.5 rushing yards (bet365), a number he can hit with one good scramble. And in case he has a couple of those, we'll play 30+ yards at +375 and 50+ at +1400 too at bet365, lines Herbert has hit with regularity this season. If you're a touchdown better, Herbert at +600 (DraftKings) seems too long there too. He has 14 rushing TDs in his career and Dallas has allowed the most rushing TDs of any team with seven, including three in the last six games.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Proj closer to 71.5 with around a 60% chance to stay under 78.5

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Dak on a homestand has been quite profitable. 2nd home game in a row – last 15- he’s 13-2 SU. Herbert has been a profitable UD – 68% ATS as a road dog in his career. But they are coming off an emotional high, big letdown spot. The Cowboys have a 1% chance to make the playoffs, they know it’s a long shot…but sometimes those talented teams with little to play for, are out there playing freely – against an opponent that is tight. I like Dallas in this spot.

#RLM