Eagles vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - November 23, 2025

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#LuckRankings B Grade

3.27% ev

I probably should just avoid Eagles games altogether, but I have to play this. The Eagles can’t keep getting away with these offensive performances. They’ve scored just 26 total points over their last two games and somehow covered in both. The last time these two teams met, the Eagles won by four in Philadelphia in a game where the Cowboys actually out gained them but had some unfortunate turnover luck (shocker). Don’t get me wrong, the Cowboys defense is atrocious, but they’ve added some nice pieces since their first meeting. They’ve also gotten some key guys back from injury that give me a little more hope. They traded for star Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, and they got Demarvion Overshown back from IR. Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson are also back in the starting lineup. These might not be the biggest names ever, but they’re massive for a defense that was potentially the worst unit in the league. The Cowboys defense was off to a historically bad start, but they’ve looked much improved lately. They allowed just 16 points to the Raiders, not impressive on the surface, but considering their results all season, it was a win. Also, let’s not act like the Eagles offense is scary. They rank 24th in success rate, 15th in EPA/play, and just 21st in EPA/rush. The Eagles live and die by the run, but it simply hasn’t worked this season. They were dominant last year and it led to a Super Bowl run, but injuries and age are catching up to this offensive line. Lane Johnson will miss this game after leaving last week’s game after only 14 snaps. His replacement, Fred Johnson, earned a team low 41.6 pass blocking grade. Center Cam Jurgens is also banged up. Philadelphia’s offense will likely still find some success against the Dallas defense, but they have looked lifeless for weeks. The Eagles come in second in our NFL luck rankings. Everything has seemingly gone right for them. Seven of their eight wins have come by one score. Truly a remarkable stat. That’s why it’s key we have the 3.5 hook here, because Eagles by three feels all too familiar. Dallas is undoubtedly superior at home. They’re averaging 35.25 points at home but just 25.83 on the road. The Eagles defense has been elite, but there’s something about this Cowboys offense at AT&T Stadium. Philly’s defense thrives outdoors and in the cold, but there’s no such advantage in Dallas. AT&T Stadium is the perfect offensive atmosphere. Dallas also has the ability to go vertical in the passing game, which is something the Eagles defense has struggled with. The Cowboys own the 4th best offensive grade in the NFL and I don’t think the Eagles offense will be able to keep up if Dallas is clicking like they usually do at home. The Cowboys will also have the much superior special teams unit in this game. Brandon Aubrey is a cheat code, and KaVontae Turpin can break one at any moment. In this rivalry, the home team has won 12 of the last 14 matchups. Dak Prescott is also 21–2 straight up against NFC East opponents at home. Pretty incredible. Our model has the Cowboys winning outright 26.76 to 22.44, for a fair spread of Dallas -4.32. I’m taking the Cowboys +3.5 on FanDuel (-122). If you only have +3, I’d recommend buying up to +3.5. We rarely recommend buying points, but with the Eagles voodoo, having the hook might matter.

Sorry Eagles fans.

The Eagles continue to get by on the skin of their teeth. The offense simply is not clicking, and I've been looking for the right spot to fade Philadelphia. The Cowboys played the Eagles basically even in the season opener. That one was in Philadelphia, and that's where we'll start, because the move to Dallas here is a huge swing in this rivalry. The home team has won 12 of the last 14 in this matchup, with the only two losses featuring a backup QB starter by the home side. The Cowboys offense always looks much more comfortable at home and is the better offense here, and Dallas has the clear better special teams too, so the question is just how much of an advantage Philadelphia's defense is. The Eagles have been terrific of late, but Dallas's defense is improving too and Quinnen Williams looks like an immediate difference maker. The Cowboys are more bad than awful now on that end, bottom 10 instead of league worst. That's significant against an Eagles offense that's struggled all year and might be headed in the wrong direction now that the offensive line is compromised. Philadelphia is missing Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens, and the Johnson loss in particular is massive. Per Aaron Schatz, the on/off splits this season with Lane Johnson are insane. His presence this season has been worth +0.18 EPA per play, +14% DVOA, and +51 expected points versus his time off the field. Per Bill Barnwell, the Eagles offense ranks 3rd in EPA with Lane Johnson on the field in his career and plummet to 28th without - fifth worst! Johnson is perhaps the league's best pass protector, so it's no surprise that his absence has most directly hurt Philadelphia QBs over the years. That's bad news right as the passing game has found some footing, especially since the run game hasn't been as strong this year. Jalen Hurts has never been great in this spot, just 11–18–2 ATS (38%) against sub-.500 teams, and the Eagles aren't exactly dominating teams this season. Seven of their eight wins this year are by one score, including the previous meeting in Philly. That's why you'll want to grab Cowboys +3.5 (FanDuel) while it's available above the hook, since it's very easy to see even an Eagles win not covering that number. I think Dallas can win too and will sprinkle part of the bet on the +155 moneyline (ESPN Bet) but will put more of the bet on +3.5 as long as it's available above the key number.

Pass the Prop best bet

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Cowboys offense should be able to put up points on Philly, something the Eagles haven’t been able to produce themselves. Dak thrives in these spots as well, 17-6 ATS at home vs division opponents. Dak has won 18 consecutive home games vs NFC opponents (H/T Evan Abrams)

There is a value opportunity on Saquon Barkley's rush attempts prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 16.47 rush attempts, while sportsbooks imply 21.27. The model believes there is a 77% chance he records fewer than 19.5 rush attempts, so there is some value on the under at -120. (This play is good down to at least -206.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz