Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - October 19, 2025

Commanders at Cowboys

8:25 pm • FOX
22 - 44

Commanders at Cowboys Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Commanders
3-4
-3
+1.5-108
o55.5-108
+105
Cowboys
3-3-1
u49
-1.5-112
u55.5-112
-125
location pinSunday 8:25 p.m.
October 19, 2025
AT&T StadiumArlington
Commanders vs. Cowboys Expert Picks
Gilles Gallant
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 26-87-1 (-17.2u)
G.Pickens Anytime TD Scorer Yes+150
0.5u
Allan Lem
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 139-99-6 (+16.1u)
F.Luvu u6.5 Tackles + Ast-120
0.5u
Tailing @The_Oddsmaker
Sean Koerner
Sean Koerner
Last 30d: 50-37-0 (+7.7u)
F.Luvu u6.5 Tackles + Ast-120
0.5u
Same rationale as last week and as usual for Luvu. He usually needs a sack to clear this number and Dak has been one of the toughest QBs to sack this season. Plus, I have Was facing 6 fewer runs and 5 more completions than usual. Luvu mixes in way more on run plays (typically needs a sack on a pass play) making his under even more likely. Not to mention the scorekeeper at Jerry’s World is one of the stingiest when it comes to dishing out assists. As if I didn’t already love this prop enough lol. Projecting him closer to 5.5 with around a 65% chance to stay under.
The Degenerates
The Degenerates
Last 30d: 66-57-2 (+4.6u)
Over 54.5-110
1u
Vegas Refund
Vegas Refund
Last 30d: 44-37-3 (+3.6u)
DAL -122
1u
Mjaybrod
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 90-104-3 (-5.9u)
D.Prescott o270.5 Pass Yds-120
1u
Do job
Scott Rickenbach
Scott Rickenbach
Last 30d: 94-110-2 (-27.5u)
WAS +1.5-109
1u
Royals Props
Royals Props
Last 30d: 33-21-1 (+7.4u)
C.Lamb o76.5 Rec Yds-114
1u
YBK Picks.com
Last 30d: 61-38-3 (+42.3u)
DAL -1.5-105
1.9u
Capper Central
Capper Central
Last 30d: 83-69-1 (-2.5u)
DAL +7.5-120
1u
Remaining teaser leg from a discord bet
Brian Bitler
Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 59-60-1 (-12.5u)
DAL -1.5-110
2.73u
Matt DiLeo
Matt DiLeo
Last 30d: 41-32-0 (+4.6u)
Both Teams To Make 33+ Yard FG+100
1u
Sandy Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 99-101-2 (+13.1u)
DAL -125
1u
Picks Office
Picks Office
Last 30d: 86-71-2 (+11.3u)
DAL +2.5-110
0.91u
X: PicksOffice
💰🦡 Jake
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 110-133-5 (+14.4u)
Under 27.5 (1H)-125
1.25u
Markus Markets
Markus Markets
Last 30d: 37-30-0 (+5.8u)
J.Croskey-Merritt o66.5 Rush Yds-114
1u
Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 52-99-0 (-3.1u)
WAS -6.5+240
0.25u
DAL -6.5+270
0.68u
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles. Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week. Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points. The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been. It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout. But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out. Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns. And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry. Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them! Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch. Okay, so which side wins big? I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin. Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points. Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator. Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%). Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points. If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback. I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.
WAS -19.5+1060
0.13u
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles. Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week. Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points. The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been. It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout. But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out. Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns. And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry. Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them! Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch. Okay, so which side wins big? I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin. Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points. Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator. Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%). Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points. If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback. I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.
DAL -19.5+1100
1.38u
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles. Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week. Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points. The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been. It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout. But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out. Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns. And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry. Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them! Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch. Okay, so which side wins big? I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin. Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points. Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator. Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%). Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points. If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback. I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.
WAS -13.5+500
0.25u
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles. Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week. Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points. The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been. It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout. But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out. Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns. And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry. Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them! Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch. Okay, so which side wins big? I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin. Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points. Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator. Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%). Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points. If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback. I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.
DAL -13.5+600
1.5u
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles. Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week. Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points. The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been. It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout. But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out. Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns. And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry. Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them! Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch. Okay, so which side wins big? I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin. Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points. Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator. Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%). Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points. If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback. I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.
Roger Goodell
Roger Goodell
Last 30d: 53-32-3 (+16.0u)
B.Aubrey o2.5 FGs Made-122
0.41u
Action Pod NFL Picks
Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 67-118-0 (-1.9u)
DAL -19.5+1100
1.1u
WAS -19.5+1060
0.1u
WAS -6.5+210
0.48u
WAS -13.5+500
0.2u
DAL -6.5+270
1u
DAL -13.5+600
1.02u
TAN Pod Touchdown Show
TAN Pod Touchdown Show
Last 30d: 14-49-1 (-4.4u)
Z.Ertz Anytime TD Scorer Yes+115
0.58u
G.Pickens Anytime TD Scorer Yes+150
0.5u
Derek Carty
Derek Carty
Last 30d: 25-26-0 (+4.4u)
C.Lamb u6.5 Recs-105
1u
THE BLITZ is forecasting 5.11 receptions for CeeDee Lamb compared to 7.13 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 76% of the time, resulting in a 48% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $50.41. (This play is good down to at least -193.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz
Matt DiLeo
Matt DiLeo
Last 30d: 41-32-0 (+4.6u)
J.Daniels o1.5 Pass TDs-115
1u
Mjaybrod
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 90-104-3 (-5.9u)
WAS +1-110
1u
Dying to see Dak choke in this one
Grant Neiffer
Grant Neiffer
Last 30d: 32-88-0 (+1.3u)
G.Pickens Anytime TD Scorer Yes+145
0.5u
C.Moore Anytime TD Scorer Yes+500
0.5u
Cam Is Money
Cam Is Money
Last 30d: 71-88-2 (-8.3u)
J.Daniels o1.5 Pass TDs-121
1u
Stuck 🚨
Stuck 🚨
Last 30d: 65-71-2 (+0.9u)
DAL +2.5-112
0.36u
Smaller for now. Still some injury uncertainty here but Dallas seems to be trending better than Washington. Last team with the ball type of game so I’ll take the 2.5 with the way Dak is playing plus Aubrey in pocket.

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Commanders vs. Cowboys Props

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Commanders vs. Cowboys Public Betting Percentages

Away Logo

Commanders

Public

46%

Bets%

54%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Cowboys
4-32-12-21-33-0
Commanders
3-42-11-32-11-3

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Cowboys
5-23-02-23-12-1
Commanders
3-3-11-1-12-21-1-12-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Cowboys
3-3-1N/AN/A2-21-1-1
Commanders
3-4N/AN/A2-11-3

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Oct 12th@CARL 27-30-3 LO 47CAR -160
Oct 5th@NYJW 37-22+1.5 WO 47.5DAL +110
Sep 29thGBW 40-40+6.5 WO 47GB +265
Sep 21st@CHIL 14-31-1.5 LU 50.5CHI -124
Sep 14thNYGW 40-37-4.5 LO 44.5DAL -230

Commanders vs. Cowboys Injury Updates

Commanders Injuries

  • Noah Brown
    WR

    Brown is out with groin

    Out

  • Austin Ekeler
    RB

    Ekeler is out with achilles

    Out

  • Terry McLaurin
    WR

    McLaurin is out with quad

    Out

  • Deebo Samuel
    WR

    Samuel is out with heel

    Out

Cowboys Injuries

  • Miles Sanders
    RB

    Sanders is out with ankle

    Out

  • Perrion Winfrey
    DT

    Winfrey is out with back

    Out

  • Jonathan Mingo
    WR

    Mingo is out with knee

    Out

Team Stats
341
Total Yards
409
64
Total Plays
62
5.3
Yards Per Play
6.6
219
YDS
264
16/32
Comps/Atts
21/30
5.694
YPA
8.29
1/1
TDs/INTs
3/0
4/14
Sacks/Yards
1/7
136
Rush Yards
152
28
Attempts
31
4.857
YPC
4.903
2
TDs
1
1
Fumbles Lost
0
1
Interceptions
0
3/3 100%
Redzone
3/4 75%
7/16 0%
3rd Down
6/12 0%
0/2 0%
4th Down
0/0 0%
18
Total
21
8
Pass
11
8
Rush
7
2
Penalty
3
11/118
Penalties/Yards
10/79
28:39
Possession
31:21

Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds Comparison

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Commanders at Cowboys Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Commanders
3-4
o27.5-105
u27.5-118
Cowboys
3-3-1
o28.5-108
u28.5-115