Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - October 19, 2025
Commanders at Cowboys
8:25 pm • FOXCommanders at Cowboys Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Commanders 3-4 | -3 | +1.5-108 | o55.5-108 | +105 |
![]() Cowboys 3-3-1 | u49 | -1.5-112 | u55.5-112 | -125 |

AT&T StadiumArlington
Commanders vs. Cowboys Expert Picks
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 26-87-1 (-17.2u)
G.Pickens Anytime TD Scorer Yes+150
0.5u

Allan Lem
Last 30d: 139-99-6 (+16.1u)
F.Luvu u6.5 Tackles + Ast-120
0.5u
Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Sean Koerner
Last 30d: 50-37-0 (+7.7u)
F.Luvu u6.5 Tackles + Ast-120
0.5u
Same rationale as last week and as usual for Luvu. He usually needs a sack to clear this number and Dak has been one of the toughest QBs to sack this season. Plus, I have Was facing 6 fewer runs and 5 more completions than usual. Luvu mixes in way more on run plays (typically needs a sack on a pass play) making his under even more likely. Not to mention the scorekeeper at Jerry’s World is one of the stingiest when it comes to dishing out assists. As if I didn’t already love this prop enough lol. Projecting him closer to 5.5 with around a 65% chance to stay under.

The Degenerates
Last 30d: 66-57-2 (+4.6u)
Over 54.5-110
1u

Vegas Refund
Last 30d: 44-37-3 (+3.6u)
DAL -122
1u

Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 90-104-3 (-5.9u)
D.Prescott o270.5 Pass Yds-120
1u
Do job
Scott Rickenbach
Last 30d: 94-110-2 (-27.5u)
WAS +1.5-109
1u

Royals Props
Last 30d: 33-21-1 (+7.4u)
C.Lamb o76.5 Rec Yds-114
1u
YBK Picks.com
Last 30d: 61-38-3 (+42.3u)
DAL -1.5-105
1.9u

Capper Central
Last 30d: 83-69-1 (-2.5u)
DAL +7.5-120
1u
Remaining teaser leg from a discord bet

Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 59-60-1 (-12.5u)
DAL -1.5-110
2.73u

Matt DiLeo
Last 30d: 41-32-0 (+4.6u)
Both Teams To Make 33+ Yard FG+100
1u

Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 99-101-2 (+13.1u)
DAL -125
1u

Picks Office
Last 30d: 86-71-2 (+11.3u)
DAL +2.5-110
0.91u
X: PicksOffice

💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 110-133-5 (+14.4u)
Under 27.5 (1H)-125
1.25u

Markus Markets
Last 30d: 37-30-0 (+5.8u)
J.Croskey-Merritt o66.5 Rush Yds-114
1u

Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 52-99-0 (-3.1u)
WAS -6.5+240
0.25u
DAL -6.5+270
0.68u
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles.
Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week.
Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points.
The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been.
It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout.
But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out.
Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns.
And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry.
Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them!
Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch.
Okay, so which side wins big?
I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin.
Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points.
Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator.
Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%).
Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points.
If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback.
I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.
WAS -19.5+1060
0.13u
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles.
Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week.
Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points.
The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been.
It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout.
But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out.
Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns.
And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry.
Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them!
Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch.
Okay, so which side wins big?
I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin.
Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points.
Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator.
Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%).
Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points.
If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback.
I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.
DAL -19.5+1100
1.38u
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles.
Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week.
Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points.
The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been.
It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout.
But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out.
Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns.
And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry.
Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them!
Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch.
Okay, so which side wins big?
I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin.
Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points.
Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator.
Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%).
Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points.
If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback.
I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.
WAS -13.5+500
0.25u
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles.
Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week.
Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points.
The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been.
It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout.
But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out.
Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns.
And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry.
Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them!
Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch.
Okay, so which side wins big?
I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin.
Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points.
Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator.
Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%).
Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points.
If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback.
I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.
DAL -13.5+600
1.5u
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles.
Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week.
Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points.
The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been.
It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout.
But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out.
Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns.
And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry.
Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them!
Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch.
Okay, so which side wins big?
I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin.
Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points.
Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator.
Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%).
Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points.
If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback.
I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.

Roger Goodell
Last 30d: 53-32-3 (+16.0u)
B.Aubrey o2.5 FGs Made-122
0.41u

Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 67-118-0 (-1.9u)
DAL -19.5+1100
1.1u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/bIlPMohsyXb
WAS -19.5+1060
0.1u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/bIlPMohsyXb
WAS -6.5+210
0.48u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/bIlPMohsyXb
WAS -13.5+500
0.2u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/bIlPMohsyXb
DAL -6.5+270
1u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/bIlPMohsyXb
DAL -13.5+600
1.02u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/bIlPMohsyXb

TAN Pod Touchdown Show
Last 30d: 14-49-1 (-4.4u)
Z.Ertz Anytime TD Scorer Yes+115
0.58u
@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/MsfxZEmqyXb
G.Pickens Anytime TD Scorer Yes+150
0.5u
@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/MsfxZEmqyXb

Derek Carty
Last 30d: 25-26-0 (+4.4u)
C.Lamb u6.5 Recs-105
1u
THE BLITZ is forecasting 5.11 receptions for CeeDee Lamb compared to 7.13 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 76% of the time, resulting in a 48% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $50.41. (This play is good down to at least -193.)
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Matt DiLeo
Last 30d: 41-32-0 (+4.6u)
J.Daniels o1.5 Pass TDs-115
1u

Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 90-104-3 (-5.9u)
WAS +1-110
1u
Dying to see Dak choke in this one

Grant Neiffer
Last 30d: 32-88-0 (+1.3u)
G.Pickens Anytime TD Scorer Yes+145
0.5u
C.Moore Anytime TD Scorer Yes+500
0.5u

Cam Is Money
Last 30d: 71-88-2 (-8.3u)
J.Daniels o1.5 Pass TDs-121
1u

Stuck 🚨
Last 30d: 65-71-2 (+0.9u)
DAL +2.5-112
0.36u
Smaller for now. Still some injury uncertainty here but Dallas seems to be trending better than Washington. Last team with the ball type of game so I’ll take the 2.5 with the way Dak is playing plus Aubrey in pocket.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Previews & Analysis
Commanders vs. Cowboys Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Commanders vs. Cowboys Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Cowboys are 1-3 in their last 5 games.
- Cowboys are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Cowboys are 2-2 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Cowboys' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Cowboys' 3 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 4-3 | 2-1 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
![]() | 3-4 | 2-1 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
Over/Under History
overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 5-2 | 3-0 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 2-1 |
![]() | 3-3-1 | 1-1-1 | 2-2 | 1-1-1 | 2-2 |
Straight-Up (ML) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 3-3-1 | N/A | N/A | 2-2 | 1-1-1 |
![]() | 3-4 | N/A | N/A | 2-1 | 1-3 |
Last 5 Matchups
Commanders vs. Cowboys Injury Updates

Commanders Injuries
- Noah BrownWR
Brown is out with groin
Out
- Austin EkelerRB
Ekeler is out with achilles
Out
- Terry McLaurinWR
McLaurin is out with quad
Out
- Deebo SamuelWR
Samuel is out with heel
Out

Cowboys Injuries
- Miles SandersRB
Sanders is out with ankle
Out
- Perrion WinfreyDT
Winfrey is out with back
Out
- Jonathan MingoWR
Mingo is out with knee
Out
Team Stats
Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds Comparison
Could not load odds
Commanders at Cowboys Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
![]() Commanders 3-4 | o27.5-105 | u27.5-118 |
![]() Cowboys 3-3-1 | o28.5-108 | u28.5-115 |