Steelers vs Patriots Prediction
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Steelers vs Patriots Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 30 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 30 -110o / -110u | +215 |
Steelers vs. Patriots odds have Pittsburgh laying 5.5 points as a home favorite for Thursday Night Football. The over/under is hanging on at 30 at most sportsbooks.
The 2-10 Patriots will be without two key offensive playmakers in RB Rhamondre Stevenson and WR DeVante Parker. For the 7-5 Steelers, RB Najee Harris appears to be good to go. It'll be Mitch Trubisky under center for Pittsburgh in place of Kenny Pickett, who's out with an ankle injury.
Continue reading below for my Thursday Night Football preview and Steelers vs. Patriots prediction and preview.
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Steelers vs. Patriots
Matchup Analysis
When the Steelers Have the Ball
Mitch Trubisky is starting for the injured Kenny Pickett, and it’s a situation that doesn’t warrant the typical three-point drop-off from the average starting QB to an average backup. Pickett is a below-average starter while Trubisky is an above-average backup, so I'd say the drop-off is somewhere around a point.
RB Najee Harris (knee) and LG Isaac Seumalo (shoulder) are shaping up to be game-time decisions and their availability could be even more important in what should be a low-scoring game.
Seumalo is one of the better offensive linemen on the team, but when he was knocked out of last week’s game, Nate Herbig filled in nicely. Based on his limited snaps this season, Herbig might even be an upgrade. If Seumalo is ruled out, I don’t think we need to dock the Steelers at all.
For all of the Patriots' offensive woes, their defense has been stout, particularly against the run, ranking second in rush DVOA. This could pose a problem for the Steelers, who have the second-highest early down run rate in neutral situations. They likely want to lean on the run more given the short week and Trubisky starting, but that plays into a major strength of the Pats.
If Harris is unable to play or limited, it’s going to make it even more difficult for the Steelers to move the ball. Jaylen Warren is one of the more talented backup running backs, but this would be a tough spot for him to take on a full workload.
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When the Patriots Have the Ball
To say the Patriots offense has been struggling would be an understatement. New England has scored 13 points over its last three games combined.
Mac Jones was playing so poorly that Bill Belichick was left with no choice but to turn to Bailey Zappe, who is proving to be a downgrade. In limited action, Zappe’s underlying metrics are showing that he's even worse than Jones. Zappe ranks 44th (out of 45 qualified QBs) in success rate, ahead of only Tim Boyle.
However, we do need to cut Zappe some slack considering his first start was in a rain-soaked game against the Chargers.
It’s worth noting that the Patriots have actually out-gained their opponents by 52 yards a game over their last three contests. Their defense has also helped keep them competitive all season.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out, meaning Ezekiel Elliott will be the Pats’ lead RB tonight. I don’t anticipate too big of a dropoff as Elliott has played fairly well this year. He ranks 16th (out of 68 RBs) in success rate while Stevenson ranks 26th.
New England’s receiver injuries will likely have a bigger impact as Demario Douglas (concussion) has already been ruled out while DeVante Parker (knee) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle) are both questionable.
It’s going to be tough for the Pats to move the ball and put up points once again.
Steelers vs. Patriots
Betting Picks & Predictions
Let’s face it: This game ain’t pretty and should be a low-scoring affair. We’ve seen the total drop below 30 at times at some books, something that hasn't happened in the NFL since the early 1990s.
I mentioned the Patriots have only scored 13 points over their last three games but according to our expected score model (that fuels our Luck Rankings), their expected score has been 14.5 points per game. New England has actually been playing a bit better than actual output indicates.
I think the Patriots' stout run defense will help keep them in this game, especially early on, as it will counter what the Steelers want to do offensively.
This is also a Luck Rankings game with a Luck Difference of 27 and Luck Gap of 41%. Unlucky teams in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% Week 13 or later are 27-7-2 ATS. That jumps to 15-1-1 (91.2%) ATS if that team is also on the road.
I think the move is to take the Pats at the key number of +3.5 for the first half. The first-half total is only 14.5, which means points will be at a premium in the first half – and the game – so getting +3.5 is going to be even more valuable.
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
