We have a three-game Saturday slate in Week 15, with some potential live betting angles in every game. That doesn't mean we'll be forcing a bet in each of them, but we will keep an eye open to see if any value pops up at any point. Here's what will be targeting on the three-game slate.
(Editor's note: Because this is different than our normal cadence, we might not be able to update this story in real-time with all of our live bets today. Study the scenarios below and apply them as the games play out, and we'll update as we can. Have a great Saturday.)
NFL Live Betting for Week 15 Saturday Slate
Colts at Steelers: Over With a Colts Lead, Unders With a Steelers Lead
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 41.5 -106o / -114u | -102 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 41.5 -106o / -114u | -116 |
Unlike the early game, the afternoon contest has a clear pre-game scenario to target.
The Colts are one of the faster, more aggressive teams in any scenario. They play between two and four seconds quicker than league average in every situation — with the four second differential coming when playing with a lead of seven or more. That's not because the Colts speed up with a lead, of course, just that they don't slow down nearly as much as most teams do.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh plays a bit slower than average in every situation, but their slowest split is when leading by seven or more. Essentially, they want to play old-school, ball control football, but will occasionally pick up the pace if the situation calls for it.
The pregame line is a fairly low 41.5, and we'll obviously be looking for a situation where the scenario and total both point us in the same direction. If that doesn't happen we'll probably pass, as it's unlikely to be worth taking a worse number even if we get the situation we want.
Broncos at Lions: Overs If The Total Drops
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +184 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -220 |
This game has a pregame total of 48. In six home games in 2023, the Lions have cleared that total four times — with both exceptions coming due to the offensive failings of their opponent's, not because Detroit has struggled.
Expanding that sample further to include all games Detroit has played in a dome in 2023, their games have cleared 48 in six of eight contests. Point is, this is an explosive Lions offense, but they tend to struggle in cold weather situations thanks to poor play from Jared Goff.
They're taking on a Broncos team that ranks 31st in DVOA and 32nd in yards per carry against the run, so even if the Lions get out to a lead the point should keep coming. Defensively, Detroit has struggled in recent weeks as the injuries have piled up. The Broncos aren't a top-tier offense by any stretch, but they should have their moments against the Lions.
This is a game I'd be fine with betting the over pregame. Thus, we'd obviously love to catch an even better number at some point, so long as there's no major injuries or other situation that would scare us off.
The Earlier NFL Week 15 Saturday Live Betting Scenarios
Vikings at Bengals: Play it by Ear
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | +134 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | -158 |
Of the three Saturday games in Week 15, this is the hardest to plan for ahead of time. For many of the same reasons, it may also present the biggest edge. While that seems contradictory, let me explain.
Through three games with Jake Browning under center, the Bengals have scored 10 points once and 34 points twice. That's a pretty wide range of outcomes, despite facing broadly similar defenses in each of the three starts. The three teams Cincinnati played rank between eighth and 11th in DVOA against the pass. Of course, the 10-point game was his first as a starter, and the only one without No. 2 wideout Tee Higgins.
On the Minnesota side, They're starting Nick Mullens at quarterback fro the first time this season. He played 19 snaps last week after replacing Josh Dobbs, completing nine of 13 passes for 83 yards in the Vikings' 3-0 win. That doesn't inspire much confidence — but he was without Justin Jefferson or any practice time as the starter. Both of those things are no longer true.
Still, we have plenty of questions about Jefferson, who exited his first game back from IR after taking a big shot in the second quarter. Will he be back in a full capacity this week, or see his snaps limited? That's hard to say before the game.
This one has a very cautious total of 40.5 or 41 pregame. If both offenses perform well early, the sportsbook algorithms are unlikely to adjust that number up enough — since they'll be factoring in the pregame number. On the other hand, if Jefferson is limited and both backup quarterbacks play like backups, we'll probably see this number stay too high for too long.
Ideally, we'll see a situation where the scoreboard is an inaccurate representation of how both units are playing, which expands the edge. That would be helpful, but not necessary.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application iswe're obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
