NFL Picks, Predictions: Expert ATS Bets | Week 16
I'm on two spreads, one in each slate for my NFL picks and predictions on Christmas Eve for Week 16. Check out my two bets below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Lions vs. Vikings
The Vikings have a top-five defense by DVOA and should give Jared Goff trouble in this matchup. The Vikings blitz on 50.0% of opposing dropbacks according to FTN, most in the NFL, and PFF grades Goff No. 1 of 41 qualified passers with a 90.3 grade when not blitzed, but 61.0 when blitzed, which ranks 29th.
Nick Mullens was serviceable in his first start, completing 26-of-33 passes for 303 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He should be able to keep the Vikings offense on schedule against a Lions defense that ranks 30th in EPA/dropback (0.0208) and pass success rate (49.8%) allowed since Week 7, per rbsdm.com.
Having Justin Jefferson back is huge for the Vikings offense. Jefferson’s 65.2% receiving success rate trails only Brandon Aiyuk (67.4%) among wide receivers. The Vikings have also found something with Ty Chandler, who broke out with 157 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on 26 touches last week. Chandler is averaging 5.1 yards per touch to Alexander Mattison’s 4.3 this season. Mattison (ankle) missed practice Wednesday and Thursday and is unlikely to be 100% if he suits up, so Chandler should continue to lead the backfield.
The Vikings have only covered once in their last four games, losing one and pushing the other two. Historically, it’s been profitable to buy low on such teams in this spot: Intra-conference 'dogs with one or fewer ATS wins in their last four games are 55-28-1 (63%) ATS since 2005, covering by 2.6 points per game.
Bet to: +2
Pick: Vikings +3 (-110)
Bet Lions vs. Vikings at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.
Cardinals vs. Bears
The Bears have been playing a lot better as of late thanks to the return of Justin Fields and the acquisition of Montez Sweat, but laying more than a field goal against a team with a competent quarterback is still a bit much for Chicago. The Bears have been running extremely hot in terms of turnover luck, with the defense forcing at least three turnovers in each of its last four games, racking up 14 takeaways and a +6 turnover margin over that span.
The Cardinals have not been turnover-prone this season, with their 1.21 turnovers per game tied for 12th-fewest. In five games since Kyler Murray has returned, the Cardinals are averaging only 1.00 turnovers per game, which would be tied for fifth-fewest over the full season.
Save for a 37-14 drubbing at the hands of the Rams, the Cardinals have been solid since Murray returned. They beat Atlanta 25-23 as a home 'dog, lost to Houston by 5 in a game they had numerous opportunities to win late, beat the Steelers by two scores as a road 'dog, and out-gained the 49ers 436-406 despite losing 45-29.
According to our Action Labs data, Murray is 15-4-2 (79%) ATS as a road 'dog, covering by 8.9 points per game.
Bet to: +3
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