One of the best betting experts on the planet shares his NFL picks and predictions today, featuring his 3 best bets against the spread for Week 8 on Sunday.
NFL Picks Against the Spread: 3 Expert Bets for Week 8
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
NFL Predictions Week 8: Best Bets Against the Spread
Browns vs. Seahawks
Save for their overtime win against the Lions, the Seahawks have been beating up on bad defenses, with three of their four wins coming against the Panthers (30th in DVOA), Giants (23rd) and Cardinals (31st). They will step up in class against a Browns’ unit that ranks No. 1 in defensive DVOA.
The key for the Browns’ defense is their ability to play man coverage, which they do at one of the highest rates in the league. The Seahawks have struggled against man, averaging 4.3 yards per targeted pass attempt (32nd) – a far cry from their 9.4 mark against zone (fourth). The Seahawks have faced the lowest rate of man coverage, but that will almost certainly change against the Browns.
The Browns are able to hold up in man coverage because Myles Garrett and company are first in quarterback knockdown rate (15.4%) and fifth in pressure rate (28.0%). Geno Smith struggles against pressure, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt and a 51.5% completion percentage, compared to 8.7 yards per attempt and a 77.9% completion percentage from a clean pocket.
The Seahawks are still without tackle Abraham Lucas (IR, knee), who PFF grades as their top pass-blocking offensive lineman this year with a 76.2 mark.
Offensively, the Browns have found a way to hang around in every game besides the one rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson started at quarterback against the Ravens. They found a way to squeak by the 49ers, 19-17, with P.J. Walker starting (and would have only lost by one if Jake Moody had made his game-winning field goal attempt), and weathered the storm to beat the Colts 39-38 last week with Walker playing most of the game.
Walker is not a good NFL quarterback by any stretch, but he tends to be underrated by the market. He’s 6-2 ATS in his career as a starter, covering by 11.6 points per game, according to our Action Labs data. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are 20-30 (40%) ATS when favored following a win under Pete Carroll.
Pick: Browns +4 | Bet to +3 (-110)
Ravens vs. Cardinals
The Ravens are first in overall DVOA and face a Cardinals team that ranks 28th. After starting the year 3-0 ATS, the Cardinals have failed to cover in four straight, losing by 19, 14, 17 and 10. There’s also nothing to point to that says the Cardinals will bounce back. Their offense was a bright spot early in the season, but ranks last in EPA/play (-0.26) and success rate (34.2%) over the past three weeks.
Defenses have figured out Joshua Dobbs, who went from averaging 6.6 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the first four games to 5.2 YPA with two touchdowns and three picks over the past three. And although running backs aren’t often difference-makers, the Cardinals really miss James Conner (IR-knee), who is averaging more yards per carry (5.4) than Dobbs is averaging per dropback (5.2).
The Cardinals defense is largely devoid of talent, which forces them to play a conservative, vanilla scheme where they blitz at the fourth-lowest rate (20.9%) and play mostly zone coverage. This will not work against Lamar Jackson, who is fourth in yards per attempt when not blitzed (8.3) and third in yards per attempt versus zone (9.6).
Per our Action Labs data, the Ravens are 12-8 (60%) ATS when priced as a road favorite of more than six points under John Harbaugh and are covering by 4.7 points per game. Harbaugh is the third-most profitable coach in such situations in our entire database, which spans the past two decades.
Bet to: -10
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Bengals vs. 49ers
Well before the Brock Purdy concussion scare, I had this game circled as a good spot to fade the 49ers.
For the past couple of seasons, the Bengals have started slow due to a Joe Burrow injury, causing them to be undervalued as they start to hit their stride later in the season. Burrow’s calf injury presents the same opportunity this season and he should be the healthiest he’s been at any point this season coming off the bye. Per our Action Labs data, the Bengals are 2-0 ATS coming off a bye over the past two seasons, covering by 10.0 points per game.
Though the 49ers are blitzing more under new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, they still play soundly more often than not and require an offense to drive the length of the field to score on them, which the Bengals are capable of as their touchdown drives average 10.6 plays and 74.3 yards this season.
Defensively, the Bengals are top-10 in pressure rate (25.4%), which is the way to slow down the 49ers’ offense. Purdy drops from 9.8 yards per attempt when kept clean to 6.3 YPA under pressure. Compounding matters for the 49ers, left tackle Trent Williams didn’t practice all week and is questionable with an ankle injury. They are also without Deebo Samuel, their top receiver against the blitz, who was ruled out with a shoulder injury.
Per our Action Labs data, the Bengals are 16-7 (70%) ATS as an underdog in Burrow’s starts, covering by 4.4 points per game. When the spread is +3 or more, they are 14-2 (88%) ATS, covering by 5.8 points per game.
Bet to: +3.5
