NFL Picks Today: Expert Bets for Week 7
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Our lead betting expert and director of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, shares his data-driven NFL picks today, featuring his expert bets for Week 7.
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | +340 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | -430 |
The Pick: Under 44.5
After the NFL has seen scoring drop and the unders are hitting at a clip of higher than 60%, the public is all-in on Week 7 unders. This Cardinals vs. Seahawks game is one where the public is a bit hesitant, though, and 66% of the money was on the over as of midnight ET at the beginning of Sunday.
I think there could be sneaky value on the under here.
The Seahawks defense ranks first against the run and should be able to slow down a Cardinals offense without RB James Conner. Seattle is 24th in DVOA against the pass, but the secondary has been dealing with injuries but is back to strength. This will be the second game all season that CBs Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen and safety Jamal Adams will all play. Witherspoon already looks like a stud, and the combination of him and Woolen could become one of the NFL's best soon.
This is a defense that should be much better moving forward, especially in the red zone. Seattle has allowed a ridiculous 90% of opposing drives that reach the red zone to end in touchdowns. I'm not saying this unit will become as good as the Browns defense, but it should see that percentage regress closer to the league average of 54%, which will cause the scoring in Seahawks games to plummet.
To help this under, referee Scott Novak will have this game. He's seen the under go 33-20 (62%) in his games since 2020. One of his tendencies is that his crews call false starts at a high rate year after year. The Cardinals have committed the third-most false starts this season and should struggle with the noise at Lumen Field.
Seattle will obviously be able to move the ball against the Cardinals defense, especially on the ground. A run-heavy game plan from the Seahawks would be ideal for the under since it'll keep the clock ticking and shorten the game.
Finally, WR DK Metcalf and three Seahawks offensive linemen are all questionable. If a couple of those players end up missing this game, it'll only help.
Lions vs. Ravens Pick
As well as the Lions have played this year, this seems like a good time to fade them. They’ve faced the NFL's fifth-easiest schedule, including facing the Chiefs in Week 1 when they were without both Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. Detroit was also fairly lucky to come away with that win, which only inflated its public perception.
Detroit will be without RB David Montgomery and possibly also his backup, Craig Reynolds. First-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs is obviously very talented, but the Lions are going to miss Montgomery on early downs, especially in a game that could see high winds.
The conditions will put more pressure to have more on Goff’s plate this game, and he has struggled on the road/outdoors in his career.
The Ravens, on the other hand, are a good buy-low team. Baltimore has dealt with a ton of injuries this season, but it's closer to 100% health, especially the offensive line. Both Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum have returned to action, and Morgan Moses, who missed Week 5 with a shoulder injury, has been removed from the injury report. It’s the healthiest the O-line has been all year.
The Ravens also stand out in our NFL Luck Rankings as the unlucky team in this game with a luck differential of 21 and a luck gap of 27%. That's more confirmation that the perception of both of these teams could be inflated in both directions where the Ravens should likely be favored by more than three here.
Use our NFL odds page to get the latest spread for this game. DraftKings had Ravens -3 at -102, as of 11:45 p.m. ET on Saturday night.
The Pick: Ravens -3
