Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited whether with the spread and total or with player props. This also applies for the Anytime Touchdown market. Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Week 2 Anytime Touchdown Previews
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Like all Chiefs games, there comes a betting premium for their player props. All starters like Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Kadarius Toney are below +200 to score a TD, with QB Patrick Mahomes at +275.
As for the Jaguars, look for them to target slot WR Christian Kirk again in this matchup. In the regular season and playoff games last season against Kansas City, Kirk combined for 26 targets, 16 catches, 157 yards and three touchdowns.
Verdict: Target Jaguars WRs like Kirk at +175.
Raiders vs. Bills
After an atrocious performance in Week 1, quarterback Josh Allen will likely feast on this Raiders defense through the air. If he can improve his accuracy and not go for the highlight play, the Bills should be able to throw at will. The Broncos were able to get two passing touchdowns on the Raiders in W1 despite QB Russell Wilson playing super conservatively while dinking and dunking. Now, Las Vegas is facing a QB who will take chances and throw it down field to beat coverage.
As for the Raiders, don’t overcomplicate it. Find the best price for WR Davante Adams and watch him get a ton of volume because WR2 Jakobi Meyers is out with a concussion.
Verdict: Bet Davante Adams at best price & WR2 Gabe Davis for Bills at +210.
Ravens vs. Bengals
Although the Texans couldn’t do much to exploit it in Week 1, the Ravens secondary is the weak spot here.
Safety Marcus Williams and CB Marlon Humphrey are both out against a Bengals team that should bounce back after getting wrecked by the Browns. It may be chalky, but don’t overthink this: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, both at plus odds.
Verdict: Bet Bengals receivers like Chase and Higgins.
Chargers vs. Titans
The Titans defense was sensational in Week 1, holding the Saints to 16 points and 2.6 yards per carry. But that’s where the praise stops — QB Ryan Tannehill looked awful (three interceptions) and may not have the tools to exploit the Chargers the way the Dolphins did.
These teams played last year and it was a 17-14 slog with four rushing touchdowns combined.
Verdict: Hard pass.
Seahawks vs. Lions
This is a rematch of last year’s barnburner that had 93 combined points. I’m praying we get another shootout.
Tight ends went crazy in this game last year, with four touchdowns scored by the position. You can make a case for almost any player here, but both teams look like they can be exploited over the middle.
Verdict: Lean Sam LaPorta +210 and Noah Fant +400.
Colts vs. Texans
Do you really want to trust Anthony Richardson or C.J. Stroud to complete a pass for you? I wouldn’t.
That’s why I can’t trust pass-catchers in this matchup even if the Colts were abused on that front in Week 1 against the Jaguars.
If you have to pick one, go with Michael Pittman. He scored against Texans in both games last year. He also scored in Week 1 with +230 odds.
Verdict: Take Michael Pittman at +240 and pray Anthony Richardson can complete a pass in the red zone.
Packers vs. Falcons
Although Jordan Love threw for three touchdowns in Week 1, that might be a difficult task against the Falcons secondary.
Atlanta will likely run the ball on at least 55% of plays, which means the Packers offense may have limited opportunities to put it in the end zone.
The Packers defense did technically allow a passing touchdown in Week 1, but it can be exploited more on the ground. That’s why I like RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to have decent success in this one.
Verdict: Let Tyler Allgeier cook at +175.
Bears vs. Buccaneers
This one is gross. The total is at 41 but it feels like it will be a rock fight given the ineptitude at quarterback on both sides.
That being said, if my life was on the line, I’d pick Baker Mayfield to complete a pass 100 times out of 100 over Justin Fields.
That’s why you have to go with the high-end talent, and no receiver is better in this game than Mike Evans, who can even make Mayfield look competent.
Verdict: Bet Mike Evans at +175 and let him make a play.
Giants vs. Cardinals
One team was picked to finish at the bottom of standings, while the other looked like it should be in the basement after losing by 40 points.
The touchdown odds are screaming at you to bet on Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones after the Cardinals gave up a TD to the RB1 and the QB last week. But at -105 and +200, respectively, the odds don’t scream value since they're nearly the same against Cowboys last week.
Verdict: Pass unless you want to take a flier on Zach Ertz at +375.
49ers vs. Rams
It’s pretty telling for potential game script when the top-five TD scorers on the board for betting odds are all 49ers. Nobody is questioning if San Francisco will score points — but once you get past those five, it’s hard to make a betting case.
On the Rams side, all eyes are likely on rookie WR Puka Nacua, who had 15 targets and 10 catches in a Week 1 romp over the Rams.
Verdict: Consider WR Puka Nacua or TE Tyler Higbee, each at +260.
Commanders vs. Broncos
Another game with a total below 40. This game stinks and I wouldn’t bet a touchdown prop in this game if it was free.
Sam Howell had the ripest matchup in Week 1 and couldn’t make much of it, only managing a quick TD pass to Brian Robinson. The Broncos offense somehow looks like a repeat of the Nathaniel Hackett era.
Verdict: Hard pass
Jets vs. Cowboys
The lowest total on the board for Week 2, this should be a game where defenses control the flow. I project turnovers on both sides, which makes touchdowns hard to come by.
Zach Wilson still doesn’t look to be improved enough with his accuracy and decision making. That’s why RB Breece Hall, who had 127 yards rushing on 10 carries, could be the one to back, with his ability to explode and take one to the house.
Verdict: Bet Breece Hall at +260 or sprinkle a long shot on Zach Wilson at +800.
Week 2 Anytime Touchdown Picks
Evans is arguably the best WR Baker Mayfield has ever played with. He scored last week, but he should have had two touchdowns.
Tampa Bay gets a matchup against a Bears defense that allowed two goal-line touchdowns to Romeo Doubs last week. One was a goal-line fade, which is Evans’ specialty at his size.
This is a great price for Evans since he was +155 last week against the Vikings. His highest number last season with Tom Brady was +170, and he scored three times in that game against Carolina.
The Chiefs play a lot of man coverage, against which Kirk thrives.
Last week, we saw Amon-Ra St. Brown score out of the slot against Kansas City. That’s where Kirk will be lining up exclusively with Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones on the outside.
In two matchups last season against the Chiefs, including the playoffs, Kirk had 16 catches for 150 yards and three touchddowns.
Coming off a Week 1 dud, look for Kirk to be the squeaky wheel in Week 2.
We’re getting spicy here by picking two strong defenses in matchups against suspect offenses.
Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has only made two starts in his career and has throw two interceptions in those games. He might as well be a rookie. On the road against the Broncos, there’s a strong chance he makes a costly mistake.
As for the Jets, forcing turnovers is likely the only way they’re able to contend against the Cowboys. They’re going to need to find points out of nothing.
Also, would it shock you to see Dak Prescott throw an early interception in his own territory? I didn’t think so. This is the best bang for my buck.
