Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies for the Anytime Touchdown market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market and if the betting odds are worth the investment. Here's my look for NFL Week 4.
Week 4 Anytime Touchdown Previews
Falcons vs. Jaguars
If you’re betting on a Falcons pass-catcher right now, it better have inflated odds. QB Desmond Ridder is holding the offense back with his accuracy at 58% over the last two games. He’s also only thrown four touchdowns total in seven career NFL starts. So, when you see WR Drake London or TE Kyle Pitts at less than +300 to score, steer clear.
For Jaguars, RB2 Tank Bigsby at +425 would be on my radar after scoring last week. RB1 Travis Etienne has been getting snubbed for the goalline work. With this game played in London, I’d stick to Bigsby but don’t bet it less than +300.
Also, WR Calvin Ridley is also in a revenge spot if you like a good touchdown in a payback game.
Verdict: Bet Tank Bigsby at +425 and Calvin Ridley at +150
Ravens vs. Browns
The Browns defense has gotten so much love this week. I’m not ready to crown them yet but after watching the Ravens struggle to move the ball late against the Colts last week, it’s hard to trust QB Lamar Jackson in this spot. That's especially the case now that he’s playing with Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake expected to share the load in the backfield with Gus Edwards potentially out.
Deshaun Watson looked great last week and finally looked like the Texans Watson for the first time in a Browns uniform. With a strong offensive line, I’d lean to Watson calling his own number at the goalline or a deep bomb to Amari Cooper — if Watson plays. If the Ravens defense continues to be shorthanded, I love those two even more.
Verdict: Bet Deshaun Watson at +350 and Amari Cooper at +225
Update: Deshaun Watson is out.
Bengals vs. Titans
If the Bengals ever needed a “get right” game, facing Titans secondary should do the trick. Each quarterback that’s faced Tennessee this season has had his best statistical game of the season throwing the ball. The strength of the Titans defense is stopping the run, having only given up 69 rushing yards per game and one touchdown on the ground.
I can’t trust anyone on the Titans right now to score. That’s why the only option should be Bengals WRs like Ja’Marr Chase at +130. Don’t overcomplicate it. He just came off a game with 15 targets (tied for his career high) and I expect him to get double-digit targets again in Week 4.
It's worth noting that Chase scored in 10 of 14 games in his career when he's seen 10 or more targets.
Verdict: Bet Ja’Marr Chase every game until he scores
Broncos vs. Bears
Could this arguably be the worst game of the 2023 NFL season? It’s easily the top pick through four weeks and finding touchdown scorer value in this one could be harder than finding Waldo in a Candy Cane store.
That being said, if you had to make a bet because you’re compelled to do so, I’d lean toward Bears WR D.J. Moore and hope for the best. The Broncos defense just gave up five passing touchdowns last week and Fields is likely gonna chuck it. At +210, that’s the only Bears option worth considering.
Verdict: Lean D.J. Moore at +210, but I don’t love it
Rams vs. Colts
I know this game could be a shootout but do you want to bank on that? QB Matt Stafford is starting to regress back to the turnover issues (4 interceptions in his last two games) and even though WR Puka Nacua has caught nearly everything thrown his way, his ATD odds have been steamed down to +140. There’s no longer value on that front.
If the Colts get QB Anthony Richardson back, that’s the only part of Indianapolis where you can feel confident about projecting scoring. The whole offense is kind of built around him and at +140, the rookie still has still decent odds because Indy won’t play him unless it knows he’s ready to run.
Verdict: Bet Anthony Richardson at +140
Dolphins vs. Bills
Easily the game of the year, so it’s a shame it’s going to be at the 1 p.m. ET window. That being said, I’d bet Bills pass-catchers in this spot, especially WR Gabe Davis and TE Dawson Knox.
Davis has scored in the last two games, while Knox could exploit a Dolphins defense that has allowed two touchdowns to tight ends.
I get why bettors would flock to wanting to bet on Dolphins touchdown scorers but after putting 70 last week against the Broncos, nearly all starters have steamed odds and yield little value.
Verdict: Bet Gabe Davis at +210 and Dawson Knox +250
Vikings vs. Panthers
Until the Vikings show even a hint that they won’t be throwing the ball repeatedly, you gotta keep going back to Minnesota wide receivers. The Panthers are still shorthanded in the secondary, so someone like WR K.J. Osborn offers tremendous value at +250. He’s played over 90% of snaps in each game and WR Justin Jefferson continues to draw so much attention.
I want to bet on Panthers WR Adam Thielen in a revenge spot here, but +215 is a tough pill to swallow after he was +265 in Week 3 and +330 in Week 2. It’s still decent value, but it would’ve been a hammer bet if Andy Dalton was the Panthers' starting QB this week instead of Bryce Young.
Verdict: Bet KJ Osborn at +250 and Adam Thielen at +215 for the narrative
Steelers vs. Texans
If you asked me at the beginning of the season which of these offenses would look broken, I would’ve picked the Texans 99% of the time. QB C.J. Stroud, though, has been a solid piece in Houston and is making competent throws and decisions through three games. Kenny Pickett, on the other hand, has been a liability in certain cases, which doesn't bode well for Steelers pass-catchers.
The Steelers defense is already ranking in the bottom-five in touchdowns allowed to RB and WR, while the Texans also still can’t stop the run. Since both teams have combined to allow seven rushing touchdowns, Jaylen Warren and Dameon Pierce seem like the logical options, but I’m likely steering clear of this one.
Verdict: Lean Jaylen Warren and Dameon Pierce
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Despite the animosity between these two divisional rivals, the offensive fireworks just haven’t been there in the last few matchups. The Saints defense has been low-key legit this season and even was for the better part of 2022. New Orleans hasn't allowed 20 or more points since Week 9 of last season. Now, it's starting QB Jameis Winston for the injured Derek Carr with RB Alvin Kamara back from suspension.
Mike Evans has scored in three straight weeks and the matchup with CB Marcus Lattimore is must-see TV. Lattimore has typically gotten the best of Evans, who has only managed to score once in his last four games against New Orleans despite having five red-zone targets in those contests.
Verdict: Soft lean on Mike Evans at +200 but don’t love it. Would also consider WR Michael Thomas at +225
Commanders vs. Eagles
Sam Howell looked like hot garbage against the Bills with four interceptions. Now, he’s facing a similar defense in Philadelphia that will likely hammer him into oblivion. I can’t get there with the Commanders but if I’m considering anyone, it’s gotta be WR Terry McLaurin, who cooked the Philly last year for 14 catches and 220 yards receiving in two games.
Every pass-catcher outside of Devonta Smith is a squeaky wheel on the Eagles, so load up on WR AJ Brown and TE Dallas Goedert. Both scored on this Commanders defense last year.
Verdict: Bet AJ Brown +140 and Dallas Goedert +210; lean Terry McLaurin +240
Raiders vs. Chargers
I’m not usually the type of touchdown bettor to take obvious guys with low odds but this matchup comes down to two words: Davante Adams, who had 14 receiving touchdowns last season and three so far this one. He has the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL since the start of the 2020 season. I don’t need to list anything else from his resume, but this is a prop that needs to be minus odds. Sportsbooks won’t do it, though, with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, so that’s fine by me.
When Mike Williams went down last week vs the Vikings, WR3 Josh Palmer immediately stepped up and caught a TD. Now that he’s been elevated to WR2, it’s time to look at Quentin Johnston at +320. Johnston was a first-round pick and saw more snaps in Week 3 once Williams went down.
Verdict: Hammer Davante Adams +110 and lean Quentin Johnson at +320
Cardinals vs. 49ers
Nobody wants to bet the Cardinals. They’ve been getting the least-amount of bets and handle for spreads/totals and it’s more of the same for touchdown props. After the big high of taking down the Cowboys, this should be the game where the balloon gets deflated when facing this tough 49ers defense. However, there’s value to be had in garbage time. WR Marquise Brown is +333 and he’s scored in each of the previous two weeks.
What I also like in this matchup is 49ers backup RB Elijah Mitchell at +290. He got 11 carries in Week 3 against Giants, and two of those were in the red zone. We know Christian McCaffrey is going to get his touches, but who wants to bet a -290 ATD prop? I’d rather bank on a 49ers blowout with Mitchell pacing the Niners late, especially since he was as low as +195 to score last week vs Giants.
If that’s too rich, try George Kittle at +175. He scored four TDs vs Cardinals last season and was huge in Week 3 vs Giants.
Verdict: Bet George Kittle at +175, Elijah Mitchell at +290 and Marquise Brown at +333
Patriots vs. Cowboys
Lot of people will immediately gravitate to the 2021 matchup between these teams when projecting touchdown scorers. The biggest change is the lack of explosive plays by the Patriots offense, which has struggled all season to move the ball.
Only one of New England's six touchdowns through three games has been longer than 20 yards, and it took an improbable 56-yard TD run from Pharaoh Brown in Week 3. That’s why if I’m banking on anyone in this offense, it’s Hunter Henry at +275. The Cowboys defense has been pretty solid over the middle but QB Mac Jones is predictable and has Henry on first and second reads in the red zone. The veteran tight end has led the team in red-zone targets since he arrived in New England.
I know Ezekiel Elliot will be a popular pick for the Revenge Game narrative but for anyone with eyes, he has looked like he's been running with cement shoes on since 2021. Elliott didn’t get cut because he was still effective. At +260, it’s not enough value.
Verdict: Bet Hunter Henry at +275
Week 4 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Best Bets
If you need more convincing after the Bengals-Titans section breakdown, here you go.
This three-game touchdown drought is the longest Chase has gone without a touchdown since college. He'd be at a minus number if he had scored last week against the Rams.
The Titans defense ranks in the bottom five in catches, yards and touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, while the offense has been stagnant through three games. Tennessee will likely put the Bengals offense in good positions to succeed with a short field at least twice in this game. Then, Burrow will be able to focus on getting the ball in Chase's hands without having to throw a bomb down the field.
Only 17 players in the NFL have five or more red-zone targets this season. All but three have scored at least one touchdown: Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin and Chase.
Kittle saw nine targets last week against the Giants and really powered the passing game in the second half.
This spot, with the Cardinals coming off a big win and him failing to score so far this season, is a get-right spot for Kittle. Arizona ranks in the bottom seven in the NFL in catches allowed to tight ends, bottom four in targets and is second last in yards allowed. The fact that the Cardinals haven't given up a touchdown to an opposing TE this season is an anomaly, especially since they allowed an NFL-most 12 last season.
Kittle scored four of those 12 touchdowns that opposing TEs scored against Arizona last season, and he didn't stop when the game was a blowout either, which could be the case here.
Kittle was +160 to score back in Week 1, and these are his highest odds of the season.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Update: Deshaun Watson is out.
This one is going to be a matchup where the defenses thrive. Both defenses rank in the top 10 in points allowed, rushing yards allowed per game and are inside the top 10 in pressure rate.
Deshaun Watson is banged up, so rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson would get the start if the veteran can't go. On the other side, Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman have already been ruled out.
Also, Devin Duvernay and Pierre Strong are good in the return game, which helps us out in these markets.
