Christian Kirk
Under 56.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Kirk ran 61% of routes from slot the last two weeks while Zay Jones was out with 70.6% of his targets still coming from the slot. Even if Jones doesn't return from his knee injury for the Jaguars' early showdown with the Bills in London, there is still value here.
Bills nickelback Taron Johnson has been a monster this season, allowing targets on just 9% of routes faced for a measly 0.88 yards per route covered. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in defensive DVOA against passes under 15 yards and Kirk is averaging a career-low aDOT of 7.5 yards.
Jones was limited in practice all week and seems optimistic about returning, which would force Kirk into the slot even more. Bet this to 54.5.
Zay Flowers
Over 3.5 Receptions (-156 at FanDuel)
This is a great buy-low spot for Flowers. He got the fewest targets and receptions of the year in the Ravens' Week 4 blowout win over the Browns and now Rashod Bateman is returning to the lineup and Odell Beckham Jr. could be back in the fold.
Even when both Bateman and Beckham played, Flowers still averaged over 80% of snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 with 13 receptions in the two games. He'll have even more upside here if Beckham sits.
The Steelers lead the NFL in defensive DVOA against tight ends, allowing the fourth-fewest targets to the position. They are also bottom half in targets allowed to running backs and it's likely Lamar Jackson will look to his wideouts a ton here.
With winds over 15 mph and a potential for rain, we should expect more short targets in this matchup and Flowers has the lowest aDOT of all Ravens wideouts. Play this to -175.
Jared Goff
Over 0.5 Interceptions (+135 at BetMGM)
Godd's bad ball rate has hovered around 10% his whole career, including 2023. With 32.5 passes projected and a 20% bad ball INT rate, we project 0.65 INTs on average against league-average defense.
Unfortunately for Goff, the Panthers are right at league average in bad balls forced at 11.8% and have four interceptions on the year. As a Luck Ranking game, there's a solid chance the Panthers keep this closer than expected so Goff's pass attempts could skew a bit higher as well.
I'm projecting +115 as fair here and wouldn't bet it below +130.
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David Montgomery
Under 2.5 Receptions (-120 at BetMGM)
Montgomery grabbed two short receptions in Week 4 with the Lions leading by two possessions, however this came against a Packers team that has given up the seventh-most pass attempts to running backs.
Carolina has a similar ratio of plays leading by seven or more to plays trailing by seven or more as Green Bay, yet has given up the seventh-fewest targets per game to RBs.
Montgomery has caught all three of his targets so far this year, which is obviously going to regress at some point.
Even with pass-catching back Jahmyr Gibbs doubtful, backup Craig Reynolds has proven himself in limited time as a pass-catching back hauling in nine of 10 targets last year in just 116 snaps. There should still be value here thanks to the Panthers funneling passes away from running backs.
I have this closer to -150 and would bet it to -135
Desmond Ridder
Over 0.5 Interceptions (+140 at DraftKings)
Ridder has a career bad ball rate of 15.8% and is coming off an awful game against Jacksonville where he threw nine bad balls for two interceptions.
Despite that, Ridder has still been lucky to avoid interceptions, having thrown just three on 37 career bad balls (compared to 7.2 expected at league average rates).
The Texans have not been great at defending passes, but even at 9.6% compared to a 12.5% league average, they're serviceable enough that Ridder's INT rate should hover near or slightly above average.
Although I'm projecting above his 25.5 pass attempts line, even being conservative and using that number, I still have +110 as fair odds for him to throw an interception here.
Chris Moore
Under 2.5 Receptions (-121 at Caesars)
Moore saw an uptick in snap count last week with Treylon Burks out and should continue to see higher usage than he did in Weeks 1-3. However, even with the increased snaps, Moore only saw three targets last week — albeit in a blowout win. This week's target share may be tempered a bit by wideout Kyle Philips' season debut. Philips should command a few more targets than the one that WR Colton Dowell received last week.
The bigger issue for Moore is the matchup. Indianapolis plays zone at the highest rate in the NFL while playing man defense at the lowest rate. Throughout his career, Moore has struggled against zone coverage. He has posted a lower yards per route run in every season of his career when receiving at least 20 targets.
Moore started his career in Baltimore lining up out wide more frequently before moving to the slot the last two years with Houston. Now that he's in Tennessee, he's been utilized out wide once again with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine occupying the slot. That's forced Moore into deeper targets once again, resulting in a lower catch percentage.
There's always a chance he catches a long pass with an aDOT of 25.6 so far this year, so I'd rather take under his receptions than his yardage. For one final subtle factor, there's a chance this game slows down a bit with the return of Colts RB Jonathan Taylor leading Indy into a slower pace than they've played so far this year, resulting in fewer overall plays compared to the second-fastest pace they've played at so far in 2023.
Evan McPherson
Over 6.5 Kicking Points (-120)
The Cardinals have the fourth worst in defensive Expected Score, allowing an expected 110.5 points thus far. They are the worst defensive team on Cincy’s schedule to date.
That comes despite Arizona facing close to an average NFL offense through four games. The four other teams Cincy faced averaged a defensive Expected Score of 69.8
Joe Burrow's calf continues to improve, which should help the Bengals offense be more effective.
The Bengals went for it on fourth down at the fourth-lowest rate last year at just 12.2%. This year, they're at 11% … so the times drives do stall, they should be kicking field goals at a high rate.
