NFL Player Props: Best Bets for Sunday Week 17
Our staff has identified its NFL player props and best bets for Sunday Week 17 for Sunday afternoon. We have a pair of same-game parlays, five overs and an Anytime Touchdown Scorer in Rams vs. Giants.
Click on a player prop below to navigate this post.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dolphins vs. Ravens
As elite as the Ravens defense has been, Baltimore has been surprisingly average against WR1s, especially great ones. The Ravens rank only 16th against WR1s, and look at some of the lines posted by players somewhat similar to Tyreek Hill: Cooper Kupp 8/115 on 10 targets, Keenan Allen 14/106 on 16 targets, Amon-Ra St. Brown 13/102 on 19 targets.
Baltimore is having trouble keeping up with these smaller target machines, and Hill could be a target monster with Jaylen Waddle sidelined. Waddle has been limited or out three times this season. Tyreek Hill has averaged 9.7 catches on 13.3 targets in those games, way up from 7.0 receptions on 9.6 targets in the others. The yardage is actually higher with Waddle, and you never know when the long play will come — less likely against an elite defense here — but Miami is going to get Hill touches at any cost.
Hill has gone over this line in nine of 14 games (64%), including all three of those no-Waddle games, and we're getting plus money at FanDuel. If you want to ride the Tyreek escalator one more time, he's +320 for 10 or more catches at bet365 and +640 for at least 12 receptions at FanDuel.
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Dolphins vs. Ravens
Jackson has rushed for at least 40 yards in six of his last seven games, finishing with 39 rushing yards in the one game he failed to hit this mark. He can make a strong statement tomorrow with the MVP award still very much up in the air, and I think Miami's pressure plays into this play.
In terms of his targets in the passing game, Likely has at least 40 receiving yards in all four starts following Mark Andrews' injury. I think Jackson likely looks early and often to his second-year tight end.
Pick: Lamar Jackson 40+ Rushing Yards & Isaiah Likely 25+ Receiving Yards (-102)
Cardinals vs. Eagles
By Sam Farley
We are about to see one of the NFL's best ground games face a Cardinals defense that's averaging 147 rushing yards allowed per game, which is the most in the NFL.
D'Andre Swift's rushing yard line sits at 66.5 and has been rising, so grab it while you can. In the past two weeks, he has run for 74 and 92 yards and will almost certainly hit break the 1,000-yard mark for the season in this game.
Given how bad the Cardinals have been against the run, it makes sense to back Swift to smash his total, especially given that he's had 38 carries over the Eagles' last two games.
Saints vs. Buccaneers
These are two players who straight receiving yards totals I really like, so I brought each line down a bit and like the number we're getting here at FanDuel.
Godwin has come on strong of late, having recorded at least 40 receiving yards in all but three games this season, including games of 155 and 78 receiving yards over his last two. He has seen at least 10 targets in three consecutive games and had eight receptions for 114 yards (his second-highest receiving total of the year) in Tampa Bay's first matchup against the Saints.
On the other side, Olave is expected to play, and this matchup couldn't be much better for him. Since Week 11, the Buccaneers have given up the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, and Olave has 94 or more receiving yards in four of his last five games.
Both teams have plenty to play for, and I expect them to lean on their star playmakers.
Pick: Chris Olave Over 60+ Receiving Yards/Chis Godwin 40+ Receiving Yards (+126)
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Titans vs. Texans
I logged Nico Collins over 56.5 receiving yards into the Action App as soon his props were listed this week, and the number has moved in a big way.
Usually, seven yards of movement on a line would have me look elsewhere, but I'm bullish on Collins this week and don't think it's a stretch that he finishes with 100+ receiving yards against the Titans. That's how good the matchup is for Collins.
I played Collins to lead the NFL in receiving yards Sunday at +5000, so I clearly don't mind the price bump for those unable to get the early number. C.J. Stroud is officially back and with him under center, Collins' ceiling is very high. I'd suggest looking into his escalators.
Pick: Nico Collins Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Rams vs. Giants
I've been riding the Rams for a few weeks, but books have finally caught up to how well LA is playing, so I'll pivot from a side and play a prop instead. The Giants' defense has been playing relatively well and Wink Martindale's aggressive pass rush could give Matt Stafford and this porous offensive line some issues in a blustery outdoor setting.
What's the best way to put a pass rush on its heels? A great rushing attack, of course!
The Giants rank 27th against the run by DVOA, and Sean McVay's offense is at its best when the run game is featured and cooking. The Rams run the ball better up the middle than any team in football, which should mean another big game for Kyren Williams.
Williams has had at least 88 rushing yards in six straight and is averaging 21.8 rushes for 131 yards during that stretch — he probably would've won the rushing crown if not for that midseason injury. This is the highest rushing yards prop of the week, but it should be even higher.
Rams vs. Giants
By Sam Farley
At +310, I love the value on Darren Waller scoring a touchdown against the Rams. This season, the Rams have allowed eight touchdowns to opposing tight ends, which is the second most in the NFL with Juwan Johnson, Isaiah Likely and Harrison Bryant all finding the end zone in December.
Waller hasn't scored in the two games since his return from injury, but he's had 11 targets and with that volume comes opportunity, especially against this defense that are struggling against TEs.
Pick: Darren Waller ATD (+310)
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Raiders vs. Broncos
Jeudy has averaged 5.3 targets per game this season, but is in a great spot this week to see increased usage. Courtland Sutton and his team-leading 19.2% target share are out against one of the most vulnerable pass defenses in the NFL. Surprisingly, Jeudy has actually been the first read at a 26% clip in comparison to Sutton's 23% this season, meaning there has been a clear effort to get him the football.
Jarrett Stidham impressed a year ago when he replaced Derek Carr as the Raiders' starter late in the season. In his two starts, he averaged 22.5 completions per game. While that is a small sample size, it's still three more completions per game than Russell Wilson has averaged in 2023. It's clear that Stidham will want to stand in the pocket and deliver the football quickly, and he should find success against the 29th-ranked pass defense according to DVOA in the Chargers.
A whopping 84.1% of all receiver targets against the Chargers have been deemed catchable, ranking them 27th in the league. In a game the Broncos have virtually no choice but to feature Jeudy, I expect Stidham to pepper him with targets. Don't be surprised if Jeudy has his best game of the season, so getting plus money on him getting receptions is a great value.
Pick: Jerry Jeudy Over 3.5 Receptions (+110)
