These NFL plays for the preseason doubleheader on Thursday are courtesy of Underdog Fantasy.
My confidence rating for every pick is out of 10 and can be found below the player name. We have two in Vikings vs. Seahawks that are a 9/10 or greater.
NFL Underdog Fantasy Plays
In the table below, you'll find each of our NFL staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Texans vs. Patriots
J.J. Taylor
Under 44.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (7/10)
The Patriots will likely only use three running backs tonight, which gives Taylor a very high floor. This prop still seems a tad high, though.
I’m guessing the Pats will use Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris the most, considering both are unproven second-year players who are competing for the No. 2 role. New England has been trying out vet backs like Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette, so they may want a good look at Strong and Harris as it evaluates the RB situation behind Rhamondre Stevenson. Taylor has already been with NE for the three seasons and they already know what they have in him.
I’m projecting Taylor’s median closer to 35.5 rushing +receiving yds.
Pick: J.J. Taylor Under 44.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Texans vs. Patriots
Raleigh Webb
Under 2 Receptions (7/10)
The Patriots are expected to give Tyquan Thornton, Demario Douglas, Tre Nixon and Kayshon Boutte a ton of reps tonight.
Raleigh Webb should see plenty of run tonight, as well, but it could be when Trace McSorley and Malik Cunningham under center for the Patriots at that point in the game. Both QBs will scramble at a higher rate, which means lowers the odds of Webb seeing a ton of targets tonight.
I like the fact we get a push at 2 receptions here since it is much more likely Webb finishes with zero or one receptions instead of three or more. I have his median closer to 1.5.
Pick: Raleigh Webb Under 2 Receptions
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Nick Mullens
Over 96.5 Passing Yards (6/10)
Mullens is expected to get the start for the Vikings and should play for most of the first half. The Vikings have said that Jordan Addison will play, and while it may only be 1-2 drives, I bet they want to target the first-round receiver heavily while he is in there. Mullens has a 7.0 yards-per-attempt average on 145 preseason attempts and should have a couple of starting-caliber pass catchers at his disposal.
I’m projecting Mullens' median closer to 112.5, but there is some risk of Jaren Hall replacing him before halftime (and a potential 2-minute drill) that adds some risk, which is why this is only a 6/10 for me.
If I'm building a five pack for tonight's doubleheader, this is the prop I'm leaving out. Mullens is another option, though, for people who want to make several different plays.
Pick: Nick Mullens Over 96.5 Passing Yards
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Ty Chandler
Over 35.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (6/10)
Alexander Mattison is unlikely to suit up and Kene Nwangwu is banged up, meaning he could be held out. We could see DeWayne McBride and Ty Chandler get a ton of reps tonight as the Vikings have a three-way battle for the backup running back gig.
Chandler is more likely to see a couple of receptions, which helps him a ton in this specific market. I’m projecting his median closer to 40.5 rushing + receiving yards. Expect this number to go up or taken off the board if/when Nwangwu ends up being held out.
Pick: Ty Chandler Over 35.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Abram Smith
Under 1.5 Receptions (9/10)
The Vikings will likely be shorthanded at RB tonight, which means Smith could see quite a few snaps. However, they'll likely be in the second half with Hall, who scrambles at a high rate, which will result in fewer checkdowns to the RB. Plus, Smith only joined the team on Aug. 4, so he may not have a good handle on the playbook, blocking assignments on passing downs. He has also never profiled as a pass catching back.
It's hard to see Smith clearing this, as I’m projecting his median closer to one catch.
Pick: Abram Smith Under 1.5 Receptions
Vikings vs. Seahawks
SaRodorick Thompson Jr.
Under 1.5 Receptions (10/10)
The Seahawks' RB rotation tonight is a bit of a mystery, but we could see rookie Zach Charbonnet quite a bit in the first half. Bryant Koback seems likely to see the most touches and those could come in the second half. That’s when I expect SaRodrick Thompson Jr. to see most of his snaps. That’s also when we'll see quarterback Holton Ahlers, who is a scramble-first QB who seems less likely to checkdown to his RBs.
Thompson just signed 10 days ago and wasn’t used too much in the passing game at Texas Tech. I'm projecting his median for closer to one reception.
