NFL Player Props: Week 10 Picks
In the table below, you'll find each of our NFL staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Browns vs. Ravens
Mark Andrews
Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
As good as Cleveland's defense has been, it's not as great over the middle.
Mark Andrews had a huge game with five catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns in the first matchup, and he has dominated the Browns throughout his career. He's had at least 58 yards in six of nine games against Cleveland since his rookie season and found the end zone in six of those games.
I'll stay away from a touchdown bet (+200) in a game with such a low total, but I love the yardage prop. Andrews has games of 78, 80, 93 and 115 against Cleveland, so I'll play an escalator too, with 75+ yards at +380 (Caesars) implying 21% success vs. his 44% hit rate with those big games in the past.
Pick: Mark Andrews Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
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Saints vs. Vikings
Alvin Kamara
Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Kamara just continues to get massive usage in the receiving game week in and week out.
The Saints' key playmaker has hit the over at this number in four straight games and is averaging an impressive 7.16 receptions off of 8.16 targets per game.
Here, Kamara draws a matchup vs. Vikings, who don't give up a ton of yardage to opposing RBs, but that really doesn't matter for Kamara considering he's matchup-proof.
I would hit this all the way to 36.5.
Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Taysom Hill
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+225)
Two weeks ago, Taysom Hill received three carries and one target inside the 10-yard line. It was the week before that, in Week 9, that we saw Hill’s role in the red zone, particularly inside the 10-yard line, really increase. Hill saw two targets inside the 10-yard line, converting one into a touchdown. He also saw four carries inside the 10-yard line, so he is getting nearly all of the most valuable work in this Saints offense.
There’s clearly a reason that Hill has a touchdown in three straight games, and I'm banking on that usage to continue in Week 10.
Texans vs. Bengals
Dalton Schultz
Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Schultz was my favorite fantasy tight end sleeper coming into the season, and he's started to become a real security blanket for C.J. Stroud. He had a monster game last week with 10 catches for 130 yards and a TD even after an early fumble, and he's scored a touchdown in four of his last five, averaging 60.6 YPG during that stretch with at least 42 yards in all but one of them.
The Bengals defense struggles to defend the middle of the field and has been lit up by tight ends in consecutive weeks, with George Kittle and Dalton Kincaid getting 11 targets each to combine for 19 catches and 230 yards.
Cincinnati ranks as a bottom-five defense on third downs while the Texans have been No. 1 on third-down offense, and Schultz is a big target with reliable hands.
I love Schultz to have a big game and will likely look to add escalators once lines post. I want to play 7+ receptions, something he's done twice in four games, and may consider a TD (+240, Caesars) or just stick with a yards escalator at +300 for 75+ yards or +825 for 100 (bet365).
Pick: Dalton Schultz Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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Texans vs. Bengals
Trenton Irwin
Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Bengals should be able to pass on a depleted Texans secondary, but the question is where — and to whom. With Higgins out and Chase banged up, Tyler Boyd is an obvious answer, but Houston's Tavierre Thomas has defended the slot well. Irwin should step into the Higgins role outside and he's the guy that can attack the Texans' outside corners.
Last season, Irwin started two games when Cincy was missing one of its stud WRs, and he had 58 and 42 yards. He also started in the game Higgins missed a month ago and caught eight balls for 60 yards, and he scored a touchdown in two of the three games while playing at least 70% of the snaps in all three.
Irwin is a great sleeper fantasy spot start if you're desperate. He's cleared this line in all three of his starts, and if you like the angle, there's value on Irwin to score a TD at +400 too.
Pick: Trenton Irwin Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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Lions vs. Chargers
Sam LaPorta
Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
This game is going to be a good one with a 48.5 total and a three-point spread. There are going to be plenty of points and big numbers put up.
LaPorta has been one of the best TE's in the league this season hitting the over at this number in five of eight games this season and has averaged a solid 7.38 targets per game on the season.
The Chargers have given up the second most receiving yards to TE's this season sitting at 552 on the year for 69 yards per game.
I would hit this line all the way up to 56.5 in this spot.
Pick: Sam LaPorta Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Lions vs. Chargers
Austin Ekeler
ATD (+105) & 2 TDs (+600)
Ekeler is healthy and back to seeing his usual snap count and workload, which makes him one of the biggest touchdown threats in the league. This game has the highest total of the weekend, so we're expecting points, and Kellen Moore likes to run it when his offense is close to the goal line. Ekeler is also a threat to catch a touchdown with the Chargers lacking options outside of Keenan Allen.
This line is simply too short. Per Gilles Gallant, Ekeler has been at -120 to -200 every game this season and last. His last game with plus-money odds for a touchdown was Week 1 of the 2021 season. Ekeler has a touchdown in three of his five games this year (60%) and has found pay dirt in 14 of his past 19 games, a 74% hit rate that would put this line closer to -300, not +100.
I'll also play an escalator and sprinkle two touchdowns at +600. Ekeler has had multiple scores in six of his past 19 games, so that's a 32% hit rate versus just 14% implied here, a huge margin in our favor.
Pick: Austin Ekeler ATD (+105) & 2 TDs (+600)
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Amon-Ra St. Brown & Keenan Allen
SGP: 6+ Receptions for Both (+108)
This game probably has the most potential of the entire weekend in terms of offense, and two receivers should be at the middle of a lot of the action are Keenan Allen and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
This game sets up perfectly for both. First, the Chargers give up the third-most receiving yards to slot receivers. St. Brown has at least six receptions in all but one game this year and at least 100 receiving yards in five out of his last six games.
Keenan Allen has been a target hog since Mike Williams went down and with Josh Palmer now on injured reserve, Allen is the centerpiece of this offense alongside Austin Ekeler. Allen has at least six receptions in six of the eight games played this season, including eight receptions in back-to-back games.
Commanders vs. Seahawks
Sam Howell
Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Books have not reacted strongly enough to just how pass-heavy the Commanders have been this season. Howell is averaging 42.3 passing attempts over his last six games and has gone over 36.5 in five of those games. The only game in which he did not reach 37 attempts was the Commanders victory in Atlanta, where Washington led for the majority of the game.
Washington has been installed as six-points underdogs in Seattle, so it isn't very likely they will be able to sit on the ball as they did back in Week 6 in Atlanta. Also, in the game against the Falcons, the Commanders offense was on the field for just 51 total snaps, which was the fewest plays run for this offense in any game this season.
The Commanders are third in the NFL in pass rate over expectation. This definitely won't be the game that offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy suddenly changes up the game plan with the way Howell is playing, and the lack of success of the Commanders running game.
The Seahawks have only allowed one rusher to reach 67 yards rushing this season and before last week in Baltimore, this was a very stout unit against the run. Howell should eclipse 40 attempts once again, this number is far too low.
I'd bet this total up to 38.5.
Pick: Sam Howell Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Commanders vs. Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet
ATD (+290)
By Sam Farley
Kenneth Walker III Walker is odds-on to score a touchdown against the Commanders on Sunday, but I think you need to look elsewhere in that RB corps and back rookie Zach Charbonnet at +270.
We've now had two successive weeks with the rookie out-snapping Walker, and that's a trend that we need to pay notice of. While Walker has had the bulk of the carries, with nearly double that of Charbonnet and similar work in the receiving game, we need to focus on who is on the field.
The opportunities are there and the touchdown will come for Charbonnet, who I believe will find the end zone for the first time on Sunday.
