NFL Player Prop Picks | Week 12
Our staff of betting analysts has you covered with NFL player props on Sunday afternoon. We have a bevy of overs, one under and two Anytime Touchdown Scorers. To navigate this post, click on a pick below.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Rams vs. Cardinals
Kyren Williams
Anytime TD Scorer (+100)
Williams is finally back for the Rams after missing over a month, and he was quietly terrific early in the season before getting hurt, ranking as the RB4 in fantasy football with consistent production. That included heavy usage in the red zone, as Williams racked up seven touchdowns in six games, including one in his best game of the season, a 20-carry, 158-yard effort against these Cardinals.
Opposing RB1s have scored at least one touchdown in eight of 10 games against the Cardinals, and Williams has made it clear that he's the guy in this offense. You might also sprinkle a portion of your bet at +650 for two or more TDs, since that's an implied 13.3% and Williams has done it in half of his six games this season.
Pick: Kyren Williams Anytime TD Scorer (+100)
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Aidan O'Connell
Under 198.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While the game script really doesn't call for O'Connell to be running the ball, this line is still too high.
The Chiefs have been one of the best defenses in the league this season, and O'Connell really isn't a good enough QB to beat them. Kansas City is allowing just 170 passing yards per game this season, it has featured one of the best pass defenses in the NFL of late. K.C. has allowed an incredibly low 128.5 passing yards per game over the last three games, which includes matchups against Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts.
Also, the Chiefs are way easier to attack on the ground. Since Josh McDaniels got fired, the Raiders have been running at a massive clip and I don't see O'Connell with over 30 pass attempts. You can also expect Kansas City to attempt to eat up the clock often with long sustained drives.
I would hit this line all the way down to 190.5 in this spot.
Pick: Aidan O'Connell Under 198.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Bills vs. Eagles
Dalton Kincaid
Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Buffalo's rookie tight end took five games to settle in, but boy has Dalton Kincaid taken off since. The loss of Dalton Knox has unleashed Kincaid and Buffalo's 11 personnel, and Kincaid has posted great numbers. He has 34 catches over the past five games for 318 yards and also scored the first two touchdowns of his career.
Philadelphia invested heavily into its pass rush and corners, but that's left the Eagles weak over the middle, and Philadelphia ranks last by DVOA against opposing tight ends with the second-most fantasy points allowed. That includes the most TDs allowed to tight ends (six), but with Kincaid down to +195 there, I prefer the receiving yards, where the number hasn't caught up yet. Kincaid has gone over this in four of the past five games and missed by only four yards in the other one.
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Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Steelers vs. Bengals
Jaylen Warren
Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Warren has now rushed for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. In his last two games, he has seen more red-zone opportunities than Najee Harris. Warren is also first in missed tackles per attempt, so maybe the shake-up at offensive coordinator is already playing off.
Either way, it’s hard to argue with the results the last two weeks, and the Bengals run defense hasn’t been a world-beater. No Joe Burrow or Tee Higgins means we should see a fairly neutral game script. This number just feels low.
Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Panthers vs. Titans
Derrick Henry
Anytime TD Scorer (+110)
By Sam Farley
Derrick Henry managed 60 rushing touchdowns in the previous four seasons, but he's only done it four times so far in 2023. While the arrival of rookie Tyjae Spears has perhaps eaten into his work slightly, Henry is still seeing good usage with at least double-digit carries each game.
If there was ever a time for his to get right, it's against a Panthers. No team in the NFL has given up more rushing touchdowns to running backs than the Panthers, who have allowed a staggering 14 in just 10 games.
Pick: Derrick Henry Anytime TD Scorer (+110)
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Derrick Henry
Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
I'm hitting all the way up here for Henry's rush yards.
I know that he hasn't been the same RB this season as we've seen in the past, but Henry consistently playing better as the season goes on. He's averaging more yards per attempt every single month this season.
While we haven't seen the same workload from Henry this year as the past, it's mostly been game-script dependent. In wins this season, Henry has 101, 122 and 80 rushing yards off 22, 22 and 25 attempts. In losses, he's only gotten more than 63 once, averaging only 13 attempts per game in those spots.
Well, the Titans are 3.5-point favorites and the Panthers have been the worst rush defense in the NFL this season. I won't be surprised here to see King Henry go for over 150 in this spot and would take the alt lines all the way up to 120 if you're getting good odds.
Pick: Derrick Henry Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Jaguars vs. Texans
Tank Dell
Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)
By Sam Farley
My favorite prop for the entire weekend in the over on Tank Dell's receptions.
Firstly, he's playing the Jaguars, who have allowed more passing yards than all but three teams in the NFL. Secondly, he's being thrown the ball by C.J. Stroud, a player whose reputation is growing every single Sunday. Then, finally, because he's be targeted a huge 35 times over the last three weeks, catching 20 of them for four touchdowns.
This is a player who's balling out right now, and I can't see him not covering this unless he gets injured.
Pick: Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)
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Tank Dell
Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This line is five yards higher on FanDuel, and Dell is set up for another huge week with Texans wide receiver Noah Brown officially ruled out. Dell has topped 100 receiving yards in two of the last games, and he had 56 yards in the game he fell short (14 targets, though).
Jacksonville runs the fourth-highest amount of zone coverage, and Dell has a 24.1% target share against zone defense (that’s even with Nico Collins healthy).
Pick: Tank Dell Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Jaguars vs. Texans
Evan Engram
Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)
Houston's defense is trending up, especially against the run, but the pass defense is still beatable. That's especially true over the middle, by design, since Houston plays an umbrella zone designed to funnel passes toward the middle of the field. That should mean plenty of looks for Christian Kirk and Evan Engram as the onus will be on Trevor Lawrence and the passing game to move the ball.
Engram can be a security blanket for Lawrence. He's averaging nearly six catches per game on 7.4 targets with a career-high 80% catch rate thanks to a career-low yards per catch. Engram has at least four catches in every game this season, a remarkable floor for a tight end. That also puts him only one catch away from this over.
Houston has allowed 72 catches to opposing tight ends, the most in the league by a healthy margin. Seven opponent TEs have already gone over this line, including Engram himself with 7/67. That's one of four games Engram's had seven catches, a 40% hit rate versus the implied +290 on the escalator.
