The Commanders safety has been one of the few bright spots for an otherwise listless pass defense. Curl has played every defensive snap for Washington and leads the team in combined tackles (106) and is second in tackles per game (7.1).
Curl has cleared this line in 10 of 15 games this season and while he’s slowed down a bit of late, he gets a fantastic matchup against the high-powered 49ers offense. Per Pro Football Focus, San Francisco allows the most safety tackles per game. Intuitively, it makes sense since the 49ers lead the league in yards per offensive play (6.8), meaning tackles are being made downfield. In fact, a safety has registered at least six combined tackles in each of the 49ers last seven games since their bye week.
I expect Curl to continue on that trend today. I have the safety projected at seven combined tackles.
McLaughlin has emerged as a reliable cog in the Broncos' rushing attack, clearing this line in seven of his last 12 games. While Javonte Williams is still the unquestioned lead back, the speedy McLaughlin has mixed in with 4.8 rush attempts per game since Week 2.
Today should be a nice spot for McLaughlin in terms of both volume and production. With quarterback Jarrett Stidham taking the snaps for the Broncos today and no Courtland Sutton in the passing game, the Broncos are likely to lean run-heavy against the Chargers defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA, per FTN.
On the flip side, the Chargers have allowed 29 rush attempts per game in the Easton Stick era. Also, McLaughlin has been more effective (5.6 yards per carry) than Williams (3.6 yards per carry) this season, albeit with less work. I’m not suggesting McLaughlin usurps Williams’ role, but he has put himself in position for more touches over the last two games of the season.
I have McLaughlin projected for six carries and would play this to over 20.5 yards.
