This post will be updated throughout the weekend with more of my NFL player props for Week 3, so be sure to check in periodically for the latest picks.
Gus Edwards
Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
With Justice Hill ruled out, Edwards should be the clear lead back for the Ravens in Week 3.
Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake have been elevated, but I expect those two to see most of their work on passing downs.
Hill had been handling slightly more early down work over the first couple of games, so his absence should lead to a tick more carries for Edwards in what should be a run-heavy, leading game script.
I project this closer to 54.5 yards and would bet up to over 49.5.
Robert Woods
Longest Receptions Under 17.5 Yards (-115, bet365)
Woods has cleared this line in both games so far, once in Week 1 and twice in Week 2. However, Houston has averaged 313 passing yards per game this season, which will likely come back down to earth this week.
Tank Dell replaced Noah Brown in the Texans' three-receiver sets in Week 2. Dell will command a higher target rate moving forward, which will cut into Woods' target share. We should also see TE Dalton Schultz more involved moving forward.
Also of note, Woods only cleared this on seven of his 65 receptions last season.
I have this median closer to 15.5 receiving yards with a 62% chance of staying under.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Okonkwo barely cleared this total last week despite DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks seeing a dip in playing time.
The Titans TE has been staying in and blocking more than expected this season, something that should continue with LG Peter Skoronski out again this week. Plus, Okonkwo hasn't been running as explosive of routes this season, with an Average Depth of Target of just 7.8 yards while averaging 8.8 yards per catch.
The Browns have held opposing tight ends to just 9.5 receiving yards per game through two weeks, which is the best mark in the NFL.
I'm projecting Okonkwo for closer to 27.5 receiving yards and would bet this down to 31.5.
Drake London
Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
London bounced back from a zero-catch Week 1 with a 6/67/1 receiving line against the Packers. He needed a 24-yard catch near the end of the game to clear this number. That win over Green Bay was one that saw QB Desmond Ridder set a career high in dropbacks as the Falcons ran a whopping 82 offensive plays.
Bijan Robinson is going to command a ton of targets this season, which will impact pass-catchers like London. Also, Cordarrelle Patterson is poised to make his 2023 debut in this game and could demand targets, while Kyle Pitts' 13% target rate will surely go up. All of this could come at London's expense.
London is a very talented receiver, but he has a wider range of outcomes compared to other WR1s in the NFL because of how extremely run-heavy the Falcons offense is. I'm projecting his median closer to 43.5 with a 61% chance to stay under 49.5.
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Terry McLaurin
Under 4.5 Receptions (-130, FanDuel)
McLaurin needed to catch five of his six targets last week. It was a game where Sam Howell threw for 299 yards on 39 attempts, which will be an outlier kind of game for him.
McLaurin's underlying usage suggests he might not be 100% and over his toe injury quite yet. He has only averaged an 81% routes run rate over the first two weeks of the season, and he's only seeing a target on 14.5% of his routes. I'm expecting both of those figures to go up, but his 70% catch rate is probably not sustainable with an Average Depth of Target of 10.8.
I'm projecting the fair price for this to be -170.
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Gerald Everett
Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-120, bet365)
Everett's underlying usage in Week 2 was very concerning. He only ran a route on 34% of Justin Herbert's dropbacks, and the Chargers went with more of a three-way committee at TE instead of him playing the majority of snaps.
Everett has banked on an 83% catch rate and 8.5 yards after the catch per reception to mask the massive decrease in playing time.
I expect him to jump closer to a 55% routes run rate this week, and I'm still showing value on his under.
Minnesota has played zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL this season. Everett saw his yards per route run rate take a huge hit against zone last season. Against zone, he averaged just 1.17 yards per route run, which ranked 37th of 49 qualified tight ends. Everett ranked seventh in the NFL against man.
I'm projecting Everett's median closer to 24.5 and would bet this down to 27.5.
