Here's a look at my NFL preseason Friday night picks.
NFL Player Picks
In the table below, you'll find each of our my top player picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific pick discussed in this article.
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Specific recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page. | |
Giants vs. Lions
Nate Sudfeld
More Than 90.5 Passing Yards
By Sean Koerner
Sharp money seems to be on the Lions resting their starters, with Nate Sudfeld drawing the start. Hendon Hooker is on the NFI list and Teddy Bridgewater signed a couple of days ago, so I can’t imagine they’ll throw him into action. Therefore, Adrian Martinez is likely to be the only other active quarterback. There is a chance Sudfeld plays the entire first half and even into the 3rd quarter. I expect him to pepper Jameson Williams with targets because the team wants to give Williams extensive preseason action given he’s suspended for the first six games. I’m projecting Sudfeld’s median closer to 120.5.
Pick: Nate Sudfeld More Than 90.5 Passing Yards
Giants vs. Lions
Adrian Martinez
More than 16.5 Rushing Yards
By Sean Koerner
I’m guessing Martinez will play 1-1.5 quarters in the second half. He’s an UDFA out of Kansas State who has a ton of rushing upside. He has absolutely nothing to lose tonight and I expect him to play with reckless abandon, while looking to show off his rushing ability (which again, is massive). I’m projecting his median closer to 20.5.
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Pick: Adrian Martinez More Than 16.5 Rushing Yards
Giants vs. Lions
Logan Woodside
More Than 63.5 Passing Yards
By Sean Koerner
It’s unclear if Desmond Ridder will play, but head coach Arthur Smith has mentioned wanting to get Woodside plenty of playing time tonight in order to evaluate him. It seems likely Woodside will get the entire second half and potentially more if they decide not to play Ridder. Woodside will need to be extremely bad to not clear this with ample playing time. He averages 6.1 YPA and has a 83.3 QB Rating over 178 career preseason attempts. I’m projecting his median closer to 80.5.
Pick: Logan Woodside More Than 63.5 Passing Yards
Falcons vs. Dolphins
Freddie Swain
Less Than 20.5 Receiving Yards
By Sean Koerner
The Dolphins could have as many as 8-10 receivers active tonight. Erik Ezukanma is the favorite to lead the group in snaps, targets and receptions. But after him, it’s unclear as to what the pecking order will be. Swain has already been around for a few years and the Dolphins likely have enough film on him, so I imagine they’ll want to give the other WRs more reps. He could potentially need 3+ receptions to clear this number. In a crowded room, with no buzz around Swain getting extended action tonight, I’m going to fade him. I project his median closer to 14.5.
Pick: Freddie Swain Less Than 20.5 Receiving Yards
Falcons vs. Dolphins
Jermar Jefferson
Less Than 35.5 Rushing Yards
By Sean Koerner
The Lions are a bit short handed at running back following Justin Jackson’s retirement. They recently signed Devine Ozigbo and Benny Snell, so there is a chance they’ll see limited snaps. Craig Reynolds is dealing with an injury, so if he’s unable to play, it’ll likely be Mohamed Ibrahim and Jefferson getting most of the snaps. I think Ibrahim will get the most work tonight because he’s a rookie. Jefferson will certainly mix in, but I’m thinking we’ll see him get most of the passing down work, which could limit his upside in this market. I’m projecting his median closer to 30.5. This is my least confident play on the board, but I think it makes sense to complete a 5-pick play.
Pick: Jermar Jefferson Less Than 35.5 Rushing Yards
Packers vs. Bengals
Malik Heath
Less Than 20.5 Receiving Yards
By Sean Koerner
The Packers could have up to 12 receivers active today and Heath isn’t expected to see a ton of snaps. I’m projecting his median closer to 14.5.
Pick: Malik Heath Less Than 20.5 Receiving Yards
Giants vs. Lions
Nate Sudfeld
More Than 90.5 Passing Yards
By Sean Koerner
Sharp money seems to be on the Lions resting their starters, with Nate Sudfeld drawing the start. Hendon Hooker is on the NFI list and Teddy Bridgewater signed a couple of days ago, so I can’t imagine they’ll throw him into action. Therefore, Adrian Martinez is likely to be the only other active quarterback. There is a chance Sudfeld plays the entire first half and even into the 3rd quarter. I expect him to pepper Jameson Williams with targets because the team wants to give Williams extensive preseason action given he’s suspended for the first six games. I’m projecting Sudfeld’s median closer to 120.5.
Pick: Nate Sudfeld More Than 90.5 Passing Yards
Giants vs. Lions
Sam LaPorta
Less Than 16.5 Receiving Yards
By Sean Koerner
I’m not expecting the Lions starters to play much, if at all. LaPorta would be considered in that group and if he plays, I imagine it’ll be brief. He likely needs 2+ receptions to clear this. He certainly has the talent to do some serious damage in limited playing time, but I think this number is too high. There’s a chance this will be graded as “no action”, so be careful as to which pick plays you include this in.
Pick: Sam LaPorta Less Than 16.5 Receiving Yards
Browns vs. Commanders
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Less Than 26.5 Rushing Yards
By Sean Koerner
Dorian Thompson-Robinson shined in the Hall of Fame game and managed to rack up 36 yards on six rushing attempts. He has a ton of rushing upside, but it’s important to note that he played a full half in that game. We will likely see Deshaun Watson play a couple of series and Josh Dobbs is also likely to see 1-2 quarters of action. We may only see Thompson-Robinson get 1-1.5 quarters of action, which could slash his production by nearly half. He would have to be even more efficient than he was in the Hall of Fame game to clear this, which seems unlikely. I’m projecting his median closer to 17.5 and hopefully, when he is in the game, Washington assumes he’s going to scramble and can help minimize any big gains.
Pick: Dorian Thompson-Robinson Less Than 26.5 Rushing Yards
Falcons vs. Dolphins
Jermar Jefferson
Less Than 36.5 Rushing Yards
By Sean Koerner
The Lions are a bit short handed at running back following Justin Jackson’s retirement. They recently signed Devine Ozigbo and Benny Snell, so there is a chance they’ll see limited snaps. Craig Reynolds is dealing with an injury, so if he’s unable to play, it’ll likely be Mohamed Ibrahim and Jefferson getting most of the snaps. I think Ibrahim will get the most work tonight because he’s a rookie. Jefferson will certainly mix in, but I’m thinking we’ll see him get most of the passing down work, which could limit his upside in this market. I’m projecting his median closer to 30.5. This is my least confident play on the board, but I think it makes sense to complete a 5-pick play.
Pick: Jermar Jefferson Less Than 36.5 Rushing Yards
Broncos vs. Cardinals
Brandon Smith
Less Than 24.5 Receiving Yards
By Sean Koerner
The Cardinals could have up to 11 receivers active tonight. I haven’t heard much buzz around Brandon Smith to suggest he should have his line this high. There is a chance he could catch three passes and still stay under this number. There’s quite a bit of uncertainty here, which is why I only have a median of 16.5 yards projected.
