Yes, this marks the second time in two weeks in which I’ve faded the Bucs tight end on this prop. I’m on Otton’s under again because the 49ers are arguably the worst matchup in the NFL for a tight end.
They rank third in DVOA against the position group, per FTN Fantasy, as they have allowed the fewest yards per catch (6.8) and yards per target (4.1) to the position group. Only two tight ends this entire season have cleared this line against San Francisco.
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Furthermore, Otton has stayed under this line in six of nine games, and only four of his 30 catches this season have cleared at least 14 yards. His Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is 6.4 yards, and only eight of his 31 targets have traveled even 10 Air Yards.
Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer and Rachaad White all have better matchups in the passing game; consequently, I expect Baker Mayfield to hone in on them. I have Otton’s longest reception closer to 10 yards today.
Pick: Cade Otton Longest Reception Under 13.5 Yards (-120 | Play to -130 at DraftKings)
Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave has cleared this line in six of his eight full games this season. With at least four targets in seven of those eight games, the Oregon State product should accrue a few extra looks today.
The Chargers rank in the bottom five in targets per game allowed to tight-ends (8.3), yards per target (8.2) and receiving yards allowed to the position group (68.3).
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There have been several outlier performances against Los Angeles this season: Tyler Conklin with 66 receiving yards, Cole Kmet with 79, Travis Kelce with 179 and the Lions' duo of Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright combining for 63 – all of these in just the last four games.
This is a line which Musgrave has consistently eclipsed, either with volume or efficiency. In a game where I’m expecting Jordan Love to have to throw plenty, I have Musgrave at 35 receiving yards.
Pick: Luke Musgrave Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-114 | Play to 29.5 at FanDuel)
