Odell Beckham Jr. has gone under this line in five of his 10 games this season. While he’s of course capable of breaking off a long reception, there are two significant factors swinging me toward the under today.
First is the Ram’s defense which employs a zone coverage at the league’s sixth-highest rate, per Pro Football Focus. Beckham’s yards per catch (24.7 versus 12.9) and average depth of target (16.1 versus 11.1) both plummet when facing zone coverage.
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Second, and perhaps most pertinent today, is the weather. Rain and high winds are expected in Baltimore, which should put a damper on the deep passing attack. With the Ravens entering this game as 7.5-point favorites, my expectation is for them to lean on their triumvirate of running backs and Lamar Jackson on the ground.
I’d play this line down to -140.
Pick: Odell Beckham Jr. Longest Reception Under 18.5 Yards (-120 | Play to -140 at DraftKings)
With the Panthers off to a 1-11 start this season, Carolina is expected to feature their young players for the rest of the 2023 campaign. One of which, rookie wideout Jonathan Mingo, should be in store for some volume in the passing game today.
Mingo is coming off consecutive games with at least four catches. In each game, the Ole Miss product led the Panthers in targets and first-read percentage (per Fantasy Points Data). Even with standout receiver Adam Thielen playing his full allotment of snaps, Mingo has been the guy for quarterback Bryce Young over the recent stretch.
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Against the Saints, who will be without their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, I expect Mingo to cash in on some favorable matchups.
Back in Week 2, Mingo drew eight targets on Bryce Young’s 33 throws against the Saints. While he only caught three passes, I’m trusting the improved rapport of the rookie duo in Week 14.
I’d play this line up to -135.
Pick: Jonathan Mingo Over 3.5 Receptions (-113 | Play to -135 at FanDuel)
