Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - August 23, 2024
Diamondbacks at Red Sox
11:10 pm • MLB NetworkStarting Pitchers
pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
---|---|---|---|---|
B.Bello | 4.49 | 14-8 | ||
R.Nelson | 4.24 | 10-6 |
Diamondbacks at Red Sox Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Diamondbacks 0-0 | +1.5-184 | o9.5-110 | +106 | |
Red Sox 0-0 | -1.5+153 | u9.5-110 | -125 |
Friday 11:10 p.m.
August 23, 2024Fenway ParkBoston
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Expert Picks
CeeJ Picks
121d ago
Last 30d: 45-32-0 (+24.7u)
R.Nelson o4.5 Ks-120
1u
Picks Office
121d ago
Last 30d: 119-106-6 (+4.0u)
Over 9.5-105
0.95u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
Both Ryne Nelson and Brayan Bello have shown susceptibility, which bends toward a higher-scoring game. Nelson has a 4.35 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, indicating that he's allowed quite a few baserunners. His .267 xBA and .411 xSLG indicate his overall ineffectiveness against strong contact, with his hard-hit rate coming in at 40.7%. Bello comes in with an ERA hovering around the average at 4.08, but his WHIP is a bit troubling at 1.41, and he's allowing harder hard-hit rates at 42.2%. Moreover, he has been tagged for 19 home runs this year. His .261 xBA and .420 xSLG indicate that he can give up solid contact, too—abad combination for big innings.
The bullpens have been strong at times but have shown recent signs of wear. While Arizona's bullpen sports a solid season ERA of 2.92, it has recently seen this rise in form to 3.57 over its last 3 games. Boston's bullpen has similarly struggled, with their ERA rising from the 3.55 season average to 4.43 in their last 3 outings. This recent dip in effectiveness could easily result in late runs that push the total over.
Offensively, both teams are in solid form. The Diamondbacks lead the league with 5.3 runs a game, and even more recently through their last 10, have maintained an average of .257. Boston again stands just behind them at .264 during the same period, while they rank 6th in OPS at .768. Both these teams have gone through big-scoring series area total lately, such as recent series where the totals were 24-17 and 19-6.
The defensive issues strengthen the case for the over even more. Boston's 91 errors this season rank them 32nd, indicating the potential for extra unearned runs that could help pad a higher final score easily. In addition, trends to the over exist with both teams, especially with Arizona's road games and Boston's home games.
With how the pitchers have been pitching lately, up-and-down 'pen effort, powerful offenses, and miscues on defense, this has all the makings of a potential shootout. All these reasons point to it going over the set total of 9.5 for this game.
The Degenerates
121d ago
Last 30d: 92-74-4 (+16.4u)
Over 9.5-114
1u
Over 9.5-114
2u
Scott Rickenbach
121d ago
Last 30d: 83-67-0 (+4.6u)
Over 9.5+100
1u
Capper Central
121d ago
Last 30d: 54-48-1 (-3.2u)
ARI +109
$1362.50
Ryan Sura
121d ago
Last 30d: 97-111-6 (-21.5u)
Over 9.5-105
1u
💰🦡 Jake
121d ago
Last 30d: 76-90-1 (-26.8u)
Under 4.5 (F5)+115
1.15u
Sandy Plashkes
121d ago
Last 30d: 113-114-4 (+7.3u)
BOS o2.5 Team Total (F5)+105
1u
Firefighter Bets
121d ago
Last 30d: 11-15-0 (-5.3u)
R.Nelson o4.5 Ks-130
0.77u
Prop Bet Guy
121d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
R.Nelson o4.5 Ks-130
1u
Nelson has been really good since July 1, with a 2.73 ERA / 3.36 xFIP, and 55 Ks in 56 IP. He’s over this line in 7/L8, with the lone miss at KC (and he notably cleared this in tougher spots vs PHI, SD and WSH). His K platoon splits are relatively similar, both over the season and this most recent stretch, but he’s fared better against LHH (.717 OPS allowed vs .802 for righties), which should work well vs the LHH heavy Sox. Boston bats have been hot, but they’re also at a 27% K% over the L2 weeks vs righties. 11/L14 righties have cleared this line.
Shady Biev
121d ago
Last 30d: 185-208-7 (+14.8u)
ARI +110
2.2u
Kyle Just Bets
121d ago
Last 30d: 30-23-0 (+5.3u)
B.Bello u16.5 Outs-120
0.83u
Billy Ward
121d ago
Last 30d: 15-24-1 (-3.7u)
Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-125
1u
Sean Zerillo
121d ago
Last 30d: 29-50-0 (-6.0u)
Under 10-115
0.5u
Flat to -118 or 9.5 (+100)
Boomer Betz
122d ago
Last 30d: 142-147-9 (-1.3u)
BOS -129
1u
Tanner McGrath
122d ago
Last 30d: 126-96-6 (+14.1u)
ARI +110
1.1u
PRO Insights
Diamondbacks
ARI Insights
- Featured InsightThe Diamondbacks have scored 1.4 runs per game in close and late situations this season -- tied for second highest in MLB (78 games). The Red Sox have allowed 1.5 runs per game in close and late situations this season -- fourth highest in MLB (72 games).
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Red Sox
BOS Insights
- Featured InsightThe Red Sox have scored 4.9 runs per game over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB (7 games). The Diamondbacks have allowed 5.7 runs per game over the last week -- third highest in MLB (6 games).
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Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Previews & Analysis
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Notes
Keys to the Game
Matchup Contrasts
Today's Starting Pitchers
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Red Sox are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Red Sox' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Red Sox' 81 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Red Sox | 75-87 | 32-49 | 43-38 | 30-49 | 44-37 |
Diamondbacks | 82-80 | 37-44 | 45-36 | 37-48 | 43-31 |
Over/Under History
overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Red Sox | 79-75-8 | 37-40-4 | 42-35-4 | 37-40-2 | 41-34-6 |
Diamondbacks | 92-64-6 | 50-29-2 | 42-35-4 | 50-33-2 | 41-29-4 |
Straight-Up (ML) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Red Sox | 81-81 | 38-43 | 43-38 | 42-37 | 38-43 |
Diamondbacks | 89-73 | 44-37 | 45-36 | 52-33 | 35-39 |
Last 5 Matchups
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Injury Updates
Red Sox Injuries
- Lucas GiolitoP
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
- Patrick SandovalP
Sandoval is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
- Garrett WhitlockP
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
- David HamiltonIF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out
Diamondbacks Injuries
- Ryne NelsonP
Nelson is out with shoulder
Out
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Box Score
Diamondbacks Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RR.Nelson, P | 96 | 6 | 7 | 2 | |
RK.Ginkel, P | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
LJ.Mantiply, P | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
RD.Floro, P | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1C.Carroll, RF | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
2J.McCarthy, CF | 2-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
3J.Pederson, DH | 0-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
4J.Bell, 1B | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
4P.Smith, 1B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5L.Gurriel, LF | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
6A.Del Castillo, C | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
7E.Suarez, 3B | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
8L.Guillorme, 2B | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
9G.Perdomo, SS | 3-5 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Red Sox Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RB.Bello, P | 88 | 5.1 | 2 | 5 | |
LJ.Rodriguez, P | 7 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | |
RJ.Winckowski, P | 55 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1J.Duran, CF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
2W.Abreu, RF | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
2R.Gonzalez, PH | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2R.Gonzalez, RF | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3T.Casas, 1B | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4R.Devers, 3B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5R.Refsnyder, LF | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
6M.Yoshida, DH | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6M.Gasper, PH | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7D.Jansen, C | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8D.Hamilton, 2B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9C.Rafaela, SS | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Odds Comparison
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Diamondbacks at Red Sox Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Diamondbacks 0-0 | o4.5-115 | u4.5-115 |
Red Sox 0-0 | o4.5-125 | u4.5-105 |