Nationals vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - May 10, 2024

Nationals at Red Sox

11:10 pm • NESN

Washington Nationals

3-2

5 - 1

Boston Red Sox

1-4

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Houck			3.12	9-10
P.Corbin			5.62	6-13

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Nationals 3-2	+1.5-110	o8.5-107	+182
Red Sox 1-4	-1.5-110	u8.5-112	-219

Friday 11:10 p.m.

May 10, 2024

Fenway ParkBoston

P.Corbin u4.5 Ks+105

1.05u

Projections leans towards the under in this matchup and +ev bet with devig odds of -117 giving value to this number

Under 8.5-122

0.82u

... under when home team shutout Overall: 415-292-41,59% (ROI:13%) Season:4-2-1,67% (ROI:25%)

WSH +180

0.9u

With a 2 pt wRC+ edge v L/RHP, similar defense and actual better pen estimators L30 days, we've reached the uncomfortable point where the Nats have some value.

BOS -195

BOS -1.5+100

$1.00

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

0.53u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

1.05u

WSH +176

5.28u

WSH +186

1.86u

P.Corbin u4.5 Ks+105

BOS -190 (F5)

0.48u

Small to -210

T.Houck u5.5 Ks-145

0.5u

Featured Insight
Nationals right-handed hitters have struck out just 16% against LHP over the last two weeks -- tied for third lowest in MLB. Red Sox RPs have a strikeout rate of just 19% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- third lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Red Sox have scored in at least three different innings in 51% of their games since the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB. Nationals have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 54% of their games since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB.

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The Nationals are just 40-56 (.417) at home since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.

Keibert Ruiz has an OPS of just .421 this season -- 10th worst among hitters with at least 51 total PA's-- second Percentile. Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .529 (181 PAs) this season -- eighth best among qualified SPs-- 92nd Percentile.

Rafael Devers has an OPS of .867 since the 2022 season -- 11th best in MLB-- 90th Percentile. Andres Machado has allowed an OPS of .779 (468 PAs) since the 2022 season -- 10th worst among qualified RPs-- fifth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .342 (53-for-155) against Patrick Corbin this season -- highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .233 -- second Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .555 (86 Total Bases / 155 ABs) this season -- highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .371 -- second Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 71% of Tanner Houck's pitches (129/182) with two-strikes this season -- highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 60% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 1-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Red Sox' last 5 games

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	1-4	N/A	1-4	1-3	0-1
Nationals	4-1	N/A	4-1	N/A	4-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	3-2	N/A	3-2	2-2	1-0
Nationals	3-2	N/A	3-2	N/A	3-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	1-4	N/A	1-4	1-3	0-1
Nationals	3-2	N/A	3-2	N/A	3-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 8th	@ATL	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8.5	ATL +175
May 7th	@ATL	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 8.5	ATL +157
May 5th	@MIN	W 9-2	+1.5 W	O 7.5	BOS +160
May 4th	@MIN	L 1-3	+1.5 L	U 7.5	MIN +150
May 4th	@MIN	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIN +103

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Triston Casas
1B
Casas is out with knee
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with wrist
Out
Romy Gonzalez
1B
Gonzalez is out with shoulder
Out

Trevor Williams
SP
Williams is out with elbow
Out
Josiah Gray
SP
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
DJ Herz
SP
Herz is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LP.Corbin, P	86	5	4	1
RD.Law, P	15	0.2	0	0
LR.Garcia, P	6	0.1	1	0
RH.Harvey, P	15	1	1	0
RD.Floro, P	10	1	0	0
RJ.Barnes, P	24	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Young, CF	0-4	0	0
2C.Abrams, SS	0-4	0	0
3L.Garcia, 2B	1-4	1	0
4J.Meneses, 1B	1-4	0	1
5J.Winker, DH	0-4	0	0
6K.Ruiz, C	1-4	1	0
7E.Rosario, LF	2-4	2	0
8T.Lipscomb, 3B	1-2	1	2
9V.Robles, RF	2-4	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P	95	7	4	3
LB.Bernardino, P	8	1	1	0
RK.Jansen, P	22	1	3	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, LF	1-5	0	0
1J.Duran, CF	1-5	0	0
2R.Refsnyder, DH	0-3	0	0
3T.O'Neill, RF	1-5	0	0
3T.O'Neill, LF	1-5	0	0
4R.Devers, 3B	0-3	0	0
5C.Wong, C	2-4	1	0
6V.Grissom, 2B	1-4	0	0
7G.Cooper, 1B	1-3	0	1
7D.Smith, PH	0-1	0	0
7D.Smith, 1B	0-1	0	0
8R.Gonzalez, SS	1-2	0	0
8W.Abreu, PH	1-1	0	0
8W.Abreu, RF	1-1	0	0
9C.Rafaela, CF	1-3	0	0
9C.Rafaela, SS	1-3	0	0