Kings vs. Pelicans Odds & Betting Predictions - February 14, 2025

Tailing Steak at a book that was scared to take the bet and had to review it first before they would accept it. I am now limited at two books.

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X: @PicksOffice

The Kings have a rematch against the pelicans from last night and one player that I expect to have another great performance is Domantas Sabonis. Given that it’s a back to back, it’s fair to project Zion Williamson, to be out which would impact the pelicans ability to put Sabonis into any type of foul trouble which could limit his minutes. So bonus has also crushed in this match up so far this season. He is averaging 25 points and 17 rebounds across three games and is coming off of a 16 and 15 performance last night. The only reason he didn’t cash is he didn’t get to the free throw line at all which is atypical for him. On the season, he’s exceeded this 32.5 line in 59% of games this season and is averaging 34.7 PR. He’s even better on 0 days rest with a 78% hit rate and averaging 35.9. I’ll back Sabonis to excel once again.

Tailing @sandyplashkes

The Pelicans and Kings play once again in a rematch from last night. Neither team has had to update their injury reports just yet; however, Zion has only played once on zero days of rest this season so it is highly likely that he misses once again tonight (now he’s ruled OUT). Trey Murphy should see a natural uptick. The Pelicans already said CJ McCollum is available tonight but McCollum actually helps Murphy’s scoring. When Zion is off the floor, Murphy sees an uptick of about 20% in his points per 100 possessions. He has not hit this points prop of 23.5 against the Kings this season; however, he has taken 13, 18, and 16 FGAs against them and I expect the efficiency to improve a bit here.

Staight disrespect. Books treating him like he’s Bronny James when in reality, he comes off the bench and was acquired by the Kings last second in the trade deadline to fix their bench scoring department. And because it’s a B2B, more chance for a blowout, and a random alert of a starter sitting. After watching three games, it seems like he’s the Keegan Murray replacement and rotation lined up in the 1st half to where he sees run without also LaVine, DeRozan, and Sabonis on the court, great for his usage rate and then again with 3 min left in Q3 with the same starters out but LaVine in. In games where he plays 9-13 minutes without also and sees > 9% usage rate, he averages 3.4 PPG and clears 3+ points in 6 of 8 games. As for the matchup: Last game vs. NOP he missed 4 free throws and went 0/2 from 3PT. The Pelicans are good for his playtype because they are top-10 in transition and spot-up allowed, which is how Jake scores. #PlayerProps

C.J. McCollum ⬆️ 2.5 Threes (-124 @ BetRivers) THE BOUNCE 📽️: 3.23 Threes McCollum has played this SAC team the last 2 games and will get to play them again tonight. In the first game he hit 6 threes on 11 attempts. In the second he went 0 for 5. I think this is a spot for him to bounce back tonight and SAC is a good matchup. McCollum has cleared this mark in 3 of his last 4 games. SAC is allowing the 4th most threes per game. They are also allowing the 2nd highest FG% per game. We will likely get no Zion tonight since he doesn't play on BTB's. There should be more emphasis on McCollum scoring on a bad Pelicans offense. The volume has been good without Zion. He's averaging 9.5 three-point attempts per game. A good spot for McCollum to bounce back and cash us out before the AS break.

Sandy

Rematch from last night where I’m targeting Keegan Murray who should see a higher workload in this one Murray finished the game just 1/5 but despite the low volume I’m willing to back him due to the matchup. Over the last 8 games, the Pelicans are the second worst catch and shoot defense which is where Murray generates 50% of his scoring volume. Pelicans are also dead last in 3 point attempts allowed which Murray can exploit Murray’s shooting splits increase slightly on the road this season and with all of the focus on DeRozan, Lavine, Monk, etc, Keegan should see plenty of open looks tonight from behind the arc. After a 1/5 game, look for Keegan to bounce back.