Bills vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2025

I’ll sprinkle with @The_Oddsmaker

Sprinkle on him at this price after the Samuel/Kincaid news. Projecting closer to +900 but think he has a ton of unrealized upside in a high scoring offense. Could be out there on 30-40% of Allen’s dropbacks tonight

Last one

MNF pick from Action Network podcast

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Same reasons as last week when this cashed with ease. He’s simply playing deep at a higher rate this year. He only has 7 run tackles on the season, so facing the Falcons offense isn’t a plus matchup. Safeties facing Atlanta have recorded tackles at one of the lowest rates in the league. Bishop could still get involved on the occasional Bijan explosive run, but having Ed Oliver and Dorian Williams back should help limit those chances. He’s also mixed in on QB scrambles and even has 2 sacks this year, but Penix doesn’t scramble much and has become one of the toughest QBs to sack. Drake London should see a high target volume, but he typically gets wrapped up by CBs and LBs rather than safeties (CBs get a huge boost vs. Atl) The one factor slightly boosting his projection this week is expected volume. I have the Bills facing a handful more plays than normal, which is why my projection is a tad higher this week. Even with that baked in, it isn’t enough to push me off the under. Projecting him at 4.9 with around a 61% chance to stay under 5.5. And yeah, some brutal luck yesterday.. lost 3 plays by the hook, including one where MHJ had to leave after a big catch. Sometimes there’s nothing you can do. Eventually those bounces go the other way. I’ve honestly never felt more confident in my process, so I’ll just keep firing and let the results catch up.

Boyd / FanDuel

Falcons generate a lot of pass rush, but Bills have held up there so far this year. Falcons also face a higher average depth of throw than most teams, and the Bills get to play without wind for once. Should set up well for heavier passing volume than usual for Allen.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ADRU5buSqXb

NV

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TD 🪜

X: @PicksOffice

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@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb

There is a value opportunity on Bijan Robinson's rush attempts prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 14.63 rush attempts, while sportsbooks imply 18.65. The model believes there is a 69% chance he records fewer than 16.5 rush attempts, so there is some value on the under at +106. (This play is good down to at least -152.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Buffalo has been living in prime time, getting every team’s best punch. This is a tough spot for the Bills with Atlanta off the bye.