Buccaneers vs. 49ers Odds & Betting Predictions - November 19, 2023

Buccaneers at 49ers

9:05 pm • FOX

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-5

14 - 27

San Francisco 49ers

4-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Buccaneers 4-5	+12.5	+13.5-110	o41.5-115	+600
49ers 4-4	u42	-13.5-110	u41.5-110	-900

Sunday 9:05 p.m.

November 19, 2023

Levi's StadiumSanta Clara

SF -10.5 (Live)-115

1.5u

Under 41.5-108

0.93u

C.McCaffrey o30.5 Rec Yds-115

Under 42-110

2.73u

C.Godwin Anytime TD Scorer+300

@GDAWG5000

B.Purdy o257.5 Pass Yds-114

0.88u

TB +13.5-110

0.91u

Under 42-110

0.91u

Two great defenses and the over is public

C.Otton u13.5 Longest Reception-120

1.2u

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-11-player-props-luke-musgrave-cade-otton

Over 41.5-110

TB +13-107

0.75u

VegasInsider.com’s Razor Ray Monohan Sunday Free Play! Follow on X @Cappers_Picks

B.Purdy Anytime TD Scorer+800

0.25u

Bet to +700

T.Palmer Anytime TD Scorer+750

0.3u

Bet to +700

C.Godwin Anytime TD Scorer+300

0.5u

C.Godwin Anytime TD Scorer+300

0.5u

Bet at Bet365. Also +300 at DK.

SF -12-109

1.01u

M.Evans o55.5 Rec Yds-110

Every Game Every Team! https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-odds-picks-week-11-betting-preview-for-every-game-every-team

SF o26.5-129

0.78u

SF o13.5 (1H)-135

0.7u

Over 41.5-110

Available at FanDuel. I'm not expecting the Bucs' offense to do a ton here -- but they may not need to. Here, we have my model's second-ranked offense taking on a defense that ranks 23rd against the pass when including a prior. Brock Purdy was back to slinging it in Week 10, completing all six of his throws 16-plus yards downfield for 170 yards and 2 touchdowns. My model also has this spread at 11.2, a tiny bit above market, which lends itself more toward an over than an under. There is some wind in Santa Clara projected, but at just 9 miles per hour, it doesn't ding the appeal of the over in my model. I've got this one above 44, so I'm happy to take the over at 41.5.

Featured Insight
The Buccaneers have a third down conversion rate of 71.0% on 3rd and short this season -- second-best in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 66.0% when defending on 3rd and short this season -- sixth-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Buccaneers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 29% of pass attempts since Week 7 -- tied for third-worst in NFL. The 49ers have pressured opposing QBs on 25.0% of passing plays since Week 7 -- tied for seventh-best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

49ers are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
49ers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
49ers are 1-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of 49ers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of 49ers' 5 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
49ers	4-4	3-2	1-2	4-4	N/A
Buccaneers	5-4	2-3	3-1	2-1	3-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
49ers	5-3	3-2	2-1	5-3	N/A
Buccaneers	7-2	4-1	3-1	2-1	5-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
49ers	4-4	N/A	N/A	4-4	N/A
Buccaneers	4-5	N/A	N/A	2-1	2-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Nov 12th	@JAC	W 34-3	-3 W	U 44.5	SF -166
Oct 29th	CIN	L 17-31	-4.5 L	O 44.5	CIN -225
Oct 24th	@MIN	L 17-22	-7 L	U 44	MIN -310
Oct 15th	@CLE	L 17-19	-9.5 L	U 36	CLE -480
Oct 9th	DAL	W 42-10	-3.5 W	O 45	SF -180

Mike Evans
WR
Evans is out with hamstring
Out
Chris Godwin
WR
Godwin is out with foot
Out
Greg Gaines
DE
Gaines is out with calf
Out
Evan Deckers
LS
Deckers is out with hamstring
Out

Tykee Smith
DB
Smith is questionable with concussion
Questionable
Jalen McMillan
WR
McMillan is doubtful with hamstring
Doubtful
Kameron Johnson
WR
Johnson is out with ankle
Out

Chris Conley
WR
Conley is out with hamstring
Out
Deebo Samuel
WR
Samuel is questionable with oblique
Questionable
Kevin Givens
DE
Givens is out with groin
Out
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
Aiyuk is out with leg
Out
Jake Moody
K
Moody is out with ankle
Out

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Buccaneers

Total

49ers

287

Total Yards

420

Total Plays

4.3

Yards Per Play

7.1

Buccaneers

Passing

49ers

246

YDS

333

29/45

Comps/Atts

21/25

4.51

YPA

10.517

1/1

TDs/INTs

3/0

4/25

Sacks/Yards

4/28

Buccaneers

Rushing

49ers

Rush Yards

115

Attempts

3.667

YPC

3.833

TDs

Buccaneers

Turnovers

49ers

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Buccaneers

Efficiency

49ers

2/4 50%

Redzone

2/4 50%

7/14 0%

3rd Down

4/10 0%

1/3 0%

4th Down

0/1 0%

Buccaneers

First Downs

49ers

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Buccaneers

Misc

49ers

3/19

Penalties/Yards

7/66

29:09

Possession

30:51

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MatchupOverUnder
Buccaneers 4-5	o14-103	u14-127
49ers 4-4	o27.5-112	u27.5-107

Buccaneers vs. 49ers Odds & Betting Predictions - November 19, 2023

Buccaneers at 49ers

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