Lions vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - December 31, 2023

Spoke about Dak rushing on action island yesterday - like the look on his attempts though, as I think a sneak and/or kneel could come into play. He’s over in 5/7 games where the Cowboys didn’t win by more than two scores.

Our PRO Projections are showing a 9% edge to the under I'll fade the public and roll with the under on my favorite NFL player.

Bet365

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/sam-laporta-player-prop-saturday-night-bet-for-lions-cowboys?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=propbetguy Reception line came down in our favor during editing process, so just playing that straight now.

BrianvstheBooks NFL Straight

@ActionIsland

DAL 30+ in all 7g at home this year and 15-of-24 (63%) at home since 2021.

@tkalinowski12

DET 26th in DVOA to RB in passing game and there’s no Rico Dowdle, so Pollard should see plenty of work High-possession game with two pass-first offenses = lot of opportunities. Lines come down a bit and presents a buy-low after b2b weeks w/ 5 rec yards. But Pollard averaged 6 targets and went over in 3 of the L4 prior to this down turn

#LuckRankings

Available at FanDuel. I understand why this total is as high as it is; my model has it above 50, as well, which is wild given that it's not a big spread. 53.5 is just a bit too high, I think. I've got it at 50.2, which is about as high as you can get for a non-projected blowout. It's too good offenses, and both defenses have their flaws. However, there's at least a chance the Lions get CJ Gardner-Johnson back this week after he logged three limited practices last week. I could also see the Lions being very run-heavy given how much the Cowboys have struggled there in recent weeks. Thus, I see a couple of paths to an under here. It won't be a fun sweat given how good these offenses are, but I do think that a skew toward the under is the proper read on this one.