NFL Player Props: Week 9 Bets
In the table below, you'll find each of our staff's top NFL player props from Sunday afternoon's Week 9 slate. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
Raheem Mostert
75+ Rushing Yards (+290) | 100+ Rushing Yards (+825)
One area in which the Dolphins could gain a clear advantage on the Chiefs is the run game. Miami's rushing attack has been even more efficient, relatively speaking, than its dynamic passing attack for most of the season, and getting Armstead and Williams back would be a massive help.
The Chiefs' run defense hasn't been great, especially against outside runs, and that's where Raheem Mostert and Miami are at their best. Mike McDaniel is still a run guy at heart, and the best way to beat Patrick Mahomes is often just keeping him off the field. If Miami wins in Germany, it'll very likely be because it ran the football well. Mostert saw only nine and seven carries in Miami's big losses.
Mostert has at least 65 yards rushing in half of Miami's games, and he finished between 37 and 46 in the other three, basically just one long run from another over. And when he goes over, he often goes way over, with the ability to break a huge run at any time. He already has games of 82, 115 and 121, so bet the over, but play it with an escalator too. At bet365, +290 for 75+ yards and +825 for 100+ yards are both priced too long.
Pick: Raheem Mostert 75+ Rushing Yards (+290) | 100+ Rushing Yards (+825)
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Dolphins vs. Chiefs
Rashee Rice
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+250)
By Sam Farley
Miami has given up nine touchdowns to wide receivers this season, which is the fourth most in the NFL. Step forward, Rashee Rice, the man who should be able to take advantage of that over in Frankfurt.
Rice already has three touchdowns this season, but the real story has been his rise to become the Chiefs' No. 2 receiving option. Last week he had four receptions, two behind Travis Kelce but double that of anyone else on the team. He also ran more routes than anybody else on the team not dating Taylor Swift.
It's clear that Rice is someone who Patrick Mahomes has chemistry with, so hop on him at a nice +250 price to score here.
Pick: Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+250)
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Cardinals vs. Browns
Kareem Hunt
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175)
Whether it’s Kyler Murray or Clayton Tune at QB for the Cardinals, it doesn’t really matter because the Browns' defensive line is coming for skulls. Cleveland leads the NFL in pressure rate despite giving 65 points allowed over the last two weeks.
I don’t expect a ton of scoring but if I’m betting touchdowns, the list starts and stops with Kareem Hunt. Jerome Ford has taken a backseat and Pierre Strong Jr. isn’t the quality of pass-catcher that Hunt is.
Considering that the Cardinals are last in the NFL in touchdowns allowed to running backs (12), the Browns' running game should be in for a decent game.
Pick: Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175)
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Bears vs. Saints
Roschon Johnson
Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Despite the recent success of journeyman D'Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson is the Bears' lead back. In no way is attacking anything on this Bears offense a comfortable move, but Chicago will play at a snail's pace to keep itself — and its undrafted rookie QB, assuming he starts — in the game. The Saints' run defense is solid, but it has been struggling of late (bottom half of the league in Run Defense DVOA) and should give Johnson multiple opportunities to break a mid-to-long run.
At 27.5, we really only need seven or eight carries for Johnson to eclipse this number.
Pick: Roschon Johnson Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Bears vs. Saints
Alvin Kamara
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)
By Sam Farley
Backing Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown isn't exactly rocket science, especially when he comes into this game against the Bears on the back of a two-touchdown performance last week. That said, -110 on a Kamara TD feels like value, especially when some books have it as high as -175.
The Bears have been good against the run this year with only two teams allowing fewer rushing yards per game, but they've only allowed four rushing TDs to opposing RBs.
Crucially for us, though, Chicago has also allowed a league-high five receiving touchdowns to RBs, indicating a potential weakness that coincides with Kamara's elite pass-catching skills.
I'm confident that he'll score again here.
Pick: Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)
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Vikings vs. Falcons
Mack Hollins
Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Matt Trebby
I have two reasons for betting this prop.
One is that Van Jefferson appears to have leapfrogged Hollins on the Falcons’ receiving depth chart. Jefferson, in his third game with the team, played 71% of snaps in Week 8, when Atlanta faced a negative game script while trailing most of its loss to the Titans.
Hollins played a season-low 14 snaps, just 21% of the Falcons’ offensive plays. He did have two catches for 27 yards, but that was again with the team playing from behind.
The second reason has to do with the previous paragraph. The Falcons are 5.5-point favorites against the Vikings, who are starting Jaren Hall at quarterback. Atlanta prefers to run the ball and is unlikely to be facing another negative, come-from-behind game script.I understand that Drake London is out, but Hollins simply isn't a priority in this offense with two prominent tight ends and three running backs to feed.
Bet the under on this low total.
Pick: Mack Hollins Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Colts vs. Panthers
Jonathan Taylor
Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The script sets up well for Indianapolis to run all over the Panthers. Carolina ranks last against the run by DVOA, and the Colts' rushing attack is fourth-best. Shane Steichen has really put his stamp on this team by revitalizing the offensive line and winning in the trenches with the run game, just like he did in Philadelphia.
Jonathan Taylor's return has helped, of course. It's been a slow, but steady ramp-up for Taylor. He had only six and eight carries in his first two games back but has put up 18/75 and 12/95 over the past two games. Additionally, his snap percentage has steadily increased from 15% to 42%, 50%, then 61%.
Taylor is the clear starter ahead of Zack Moss and has gone over 64.5 rushing yards in 21 of his past 24 Colts starts (88%). I like the alternate line of 75+ even better.
This is my favorite prop of the week, and I like the alternate line even better than the original since it's just 10 yards more at a far better payout. Taylor has rushed for at least 75 yards in 19 of his past 24 starts. That's a 79% hit rate, but we're getting implied 38% odds — over double the value on the alternate line. I'll stop the escalator there as Taylor is still sharing some touches and has only hit 100 yards in one of his past 11 games.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Cowboys vs. Eagles
CeeDee Lamb
Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Cowboys made some changes over their bye week, and it clearly was to the benefit of their best offensive player: Ceedee Lamb.
He commanded 14 targets and had one of the best games of his career last week against the Rams. Lamb has a healthy 24.5% target share this season and more impressively an 83.3% catch rate, the highest in the league for any wide receiver with 20 or more receptions.
This is a great matchup for Lamb against a vulnerable Eagles pass defense. Philly has the fifth-highest target rate allowed to slot pass catchers (35%). Lamb has spent 67.1% of the time in the slot this season. Even with Lamb getting moved around the formation the past two weeks, the Eagles pass defense has been significantly worse in 2023 compared to 2022. In '22, it was the top pass defense in the NFL, according to DVOA, but it's at 23rd this season.
Despite that, Lamb had 120 yards on 10 receptions against this defense a year ago in the Cowboys' one matchup against the Eagles that had Dak Prescott under center.
For a WR averaging over 90 yards per game with the type of usage Lamb is getting, this number is simply too low for Lamb.
Play over 73.5 up to 78.5
Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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Cowboys vs. Eagles
Dak Prescott
Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-113)
The Curse of the Power Rankings suggests a bet on Dallas ML, and that's the direction I'd lean if I had to pick a side. Dak Prescott is 25-10 ATS (71%) in the division, including 4-2 ATS as a division underdog and 3-1 SU as a road dog in division games. But it's hard to bet a side in such a big game knowing so little.
If Dallas does play well, it'll have to be on Prescott's shoulders. The Cowboys' rushing attack has not been great and could struggle against a top defensive front that ranks 1st in Run DVOA. But the Eagles pass defense looks very leaky, dropping from 17th to 23rd by DVOA just last week alone, and veteran corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry both look beatable while Philadelphia is dead last against tight ends.
Prescott is over this line in five of seven games, and the two unders were huge blowouts where he sat late. He's over 248.5 passing yards in 13 of his last 17, hitting this 76% of the time.
I like this bet regardless of the outcome — either Prescott passes Dallas to a win or is throwing while facing a deficit. If he does put up a big line in a win, Dallas effectively ties Philly for the NFC 1-seed and will be the talk of the NFC all week. If you like the Cowboys to win, you should invest in Prescott to win MVP at +4000 (DraftKings), too.
Pick: Dak Prescott Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-113)
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