Before we assess Josh Dobbs himself, let’s take a look at the rest of the Vikings offense.
The running back room has struggled to get going this year, and they were dealt a major blow when they lost Cam Akers for the season.
Justin Jefferson has been ruled out again and as of writing, K.J. Osborn has been deemed unlikely to play. And even T.J. Hockenson being cleared for this week has come with the caveat of “active for key situations.”
Rookie receiver Jordan Addison should get some looks, but he has a tough matchup against Marshon Lattimore. Plus, the Saints run man coverage at the fourth-highest rate, per PFF, and the USC product has struggled against the defensive playtype.
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Dobbs is going to have to get creative with the ball in his hands, and the one area he can exploit this defense is with his legs. We saw that last week with 66 rush yards in his Vikings debut. As a Cardinal, Dobbs cleared this line in five of eight games.
The Saints' man coverage has left them susceptible to quarterback scrambles, including last week when Tyson Bagent ran for 70 yards.
What Dobbs and the Vikings were able to pull off last week was nothing short of incredible. But even with a full week of practice, I expect Dobbs to have to improvise in a tough matchup for the passing game.
I have the Tennessee alum projected at 33 rushing yards, and would play this line up to 29.5.
Pick: Josh Dobbs Over 27.5 Rushing Yards -115 (Play to 29.5 Yards | DraftKings)
The Bucs tight end has stayed under this line in five of his eight games, with only three of his 28 total catches this season going for at least 15 yards.
While it might seem counterintuitive to fade Cade Otton coming off a career game in which he caught six passes for 70 yards, that was against a Texans team that ranks 25th in DVOA against tight ends, per FTN Fantasy.
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But the Titans — Otton’s opponent today — rank 13th and struggle mightily against wide receivers, specifically on the outside. Per FTN, Tennessee is 10th in DVOA against passes in the middle of the field, and 32nd and 28th in defending throws to the left and right, respectively.
Per PFF, 81% of Otton’s receiving production is up the middle of the field, including all three of his longest receptions.
With an average depth of target of only 6.3 yards, I have Otton projected with a long catch closer to 12 yards today. I’d play this line down to -140.
Pick: Cade Otton Longest Reception Under 14.5 Yards -120 (Play to -140 | bet365)
